After the Red Wave That Wasn't, the Tide May Be Turning on Trump
- Oops!Something went wrong.Please try again later.
- Oops!Something went wrong.Please try again later.
- Oops!Something went wrong.Please try again later.
It's the morning after the Red Wave, and a lot of the country is pretty dry. Control of both houses of Congress remains up for grabs, and Democrats won vital governor contests in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. The governor and Senate races have not yet been called for Nevada or Arizona. A tsunami was forecast, but the story so far is that Democrats have dramatically over-performed against the fundamentals in a midterm election where inflation really is a problem and they're the party in power at the federal level.
Since I spent Election Day glowering at the editorial decisions that the national press has made throughout the 2022 campaign, some credit where due: It does not appear all that coverage swayed many people. In the lead-up to the midterm elections, the biased liberal mainstream media committed whole hog to the notion that a Red Wave, powered by voter angst about inflation and crime, would wash Democrats out of their majorities and hand a bunch of governors' mansions to Republicans as well. So then are the polls bad again, but in a new way? If you cordon off the blatant Republican-lean polls dumped into the media ecosystem in the home stretch, the polls seem to have been fairly solid. Certainly, there were some bad polls in the New York governor's race, though it's worth keeping in mind that Democrats do their own polling and were worried enough in the lead-up to bring President Joe Biden in to help Kathy Hochul beat back a challenge from Lee Zeldin. Fairly early on Tuesday night, it was clear the incumbent had seen Zeldin off, though her margin is just 5 points currently in a state Biden carried by 23. Even if she widens that out to seven, it's around the polling average.
It's likely Biden also came to New York with an eye on the many competitive House races there, the product of a prolonged redistricting fight that Democrats lost because of a high-minded anti-gerrymandering amendment the state passed back in 2014. (DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney oversaw the House Democratic effort nationally but lost his own seat in the 17th district.) Because of that, control of the House could hinge on a handful of races in New York as well as in California—but only because Democrats held a bunch of seats across the country that no one expected them to. Abigail Spanberger kept hold of Virginia's 7th, Sharice Davids held onto Kansas 3, and Democrats even made a few pickups to cancel out some Republican gains. Which, again, is not what we heard coming into this election. Kevin McCarthy's speaker of the house victory party was looking very sad indeed last night, mostly because he doesn't yet have victory and may well have problems becoming speaker.
A Republican majority will turn the lower chamber into a toddler pen no matter what, with debt-ceiling brinksmanship and Hunter Biden gumshoe work taking up much of the oxygen. But McCarthy now faces the prospect of a one- or three-seat majority where, even if he can fend off a leadership challenge, he will spend all day, every day trying to appease and corral the National Disgrace Caucus of halfwits and narcissists trying to get themselves on TV. It could amount to a Vice-Speaker Marjorie Taylor Green situation, or possibly Jim Jordan, although the caucus may be one light if Lauren Boebert crashes to shock defeat in Colorado's 3rd District. Adam Frisch led her all night and into the morning there, and the prospect that just one of these ghouls might have to get a real job is some solace indeed. Speaking of which, Sarah Palin is getting beaten like a drum up in Alaska again by Mary Peltola.
The big individual winners on the night were Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania and Ronald DeSantis in Florida, who wiped the floor with admittedly godawful opponents. In the process, they may have put a coat of varnish on their presidential timber. Shapiro is polished and assured and not 80 years old, and he will run a swing state for the next few years. DeSantis will get credit for turning Florida deep red—but even more than that, last night was the night that Donald Trump completely imploded.
J.D. Vance won in Ohio and Ted Budd took North Carolina's Senate seat, and Trump will claim his credit for those. But elsewhere the bloodbath we were told awaited Democrats instead visited almost everyone knighted by Trump. He went to the mat for Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania, and Fetterman saw the quack doc off to take that Senate seat. The Georgia Senate race between Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker looks likely to head to a runoff, with Warnock about 0.6% short of the 50% needed to win outright now. Again, we should point out it is a matter of serious national concern that close to 2 million people think Herschel Walker should be making public policy.
That result was particularly damning given that Trump's two Republican antagonists in Georgia, Gov. Brian Kemp and Brad Raffensperger, cruised to re-election having defied his attempt to steal Georgia's electoral votes in 2020. His election fantasist candidates for governor and secretary of state there and elsewhere have mostly gone down in flames. Doug Mastriano was bad enough in Pennsylvania that he may have helped drag down Oz, who will presumably pop up in three months selling MyPillow-branded sleeping pills. If his picks in Arizona and Nevada fail, too, it will be about as comprehensive a defeat as Trump could have suffered. Whatever else was in play, he could be cast as the guy who lost the midterms for the Republican Party. It turns out that, even in a midterm year where you're the opposition, backing weird, unhinged people who don't know anything about anything is not a good strategy.
Hopefully, Republicans will not scream "rigged" this time, as they have previously, in order to avoid coming to terms with the fact that a healthy majority in this country finds Trump and his authoritarian bullshit unacceptable. So much for all the media mockery of Democratic messaging this cycle—which, by the way, often focused on re-shoring manufacturing jobs as much as protecting abortion rights. What role the Dobbs decision, which threw out Roe v. Wade, played in this election will need a lot of study, but it seems likely it was quite significant indeed. Abortion ballot initiatives won out in four of five states, with Montana still too close to call. A young woman at Kathy Hochul's rally on Sunday told me the issue had made these elections personal for many more people and reinforced the dangers of Republican power politics for more casual observers. Again, you'd hope Republicans would take a long look at what's happening around the country right now and conclude that backing well-adjusted adults might bear some more fruit. Then again, at last count, 164 of these election "deniers" (still an unsatisfactory term) won last night.
As for Democrats, they should look at the aforementioned Mary Peltola in Alaska, Fetterman in Pennsylvania, and even the unsuccessful Tim Ryan in Ohio for how to run campaigns going forward. The more they can move away from Ivy League affect in places outside their coastal strongholds, the better. These folks seem real, normal, and not snooty. They talk about good union jobs and a bright American future. (Patriotism!) Cheri Beasley was a strong candidate in North Carolina, and Democrats may well look back and rue not putting more money into her race and Ryan's. Going forward, the map should shift a bit: Democrats (and even their grassroots donors) should not put huge money toward a single race in Florida. In fact, they should stop allocating money based on their hatred for some entrenched Republican opponent. They need to look to Ohio and North Carolina as reach swing states—with Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada closer to hand—and toward competitive House races.
As for the media, there's even more to reflect on. Yesterday, I thought the press should consider how it had been led around by the nose by Republicans treating Issues—like inflation and crime—as cudgels rather than problems to be solved with actual policy. Now, it might reflect on how all that coverage didn't seem to move readers and viewers. The game board set up by the press for the election to play out on was a complete illusion, the product of spin from Republican operatives and some questionable polls and, to be fair, your classic Democratic Party malaise.
We heard about a "Red Mirage" to describe the possibility that results might initially show Republicans way out in front before mail ballots were counted. It turns out the mirage was the alleged strength of a party that has completely lost its way, consumed by bizarre culture war in which most normal people have no interest. Also, people are fucking pissed about Roe. The press missed the story.
You Might Also Like
