Public bettors are fading the Cowboys vs. the Eagles, but should you?
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Eagles at Cowboys Betting Odds
Odds: Cowboys -2.5
Over/Under: 49
Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV Channel: NBC
Odds as of Saturday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
The Dallas Cowboys host the Philadelphia Eagles for an NFC East showdown on Sunday Night Football, but bettors are fading America’s Team with 67% of tickets and 81% of money backing Carson Wentz and the Eagles as of Saturday evening.
Should you follow the public’s lead, or buy the Cowboys as short home favorites?
Our experts break down every angle of this primetime matchup, featuring Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a staff spread pick.
Sunday Night Football Injury Report
The Cowboys listed a plethora of key players as questionable, including LT Tyron Smith (ankle), RT La’el Collins (knee), RG Zack Martin (back/ankle), WR Amari Cooper (quad) and with CB Byron Jones (hamstring). All of them missed practice at some point and none practiced in full by the end of the week.
It’s clear they’re all less than 100%, but they’re reportedly expected to suit up.
The Eagles ruled out several players on Friday, including WR DeSean Jackson (abdomen), DT Tim Jernigan (foot), LB Nigel Bradham and OL Jason Peters (knee).
The good news for the Eagles is that CB Ronald Darby (hamstring) is expected to play and CB Jalen Mills (foot) is expected to start. That said, Mills has been out for nearly a year, and he was terrible in coverage last season, receiving below-average pass coverage grades from Pro Football Focus. The Eagles should continue to have the worst secondary in the league. — Justin Bailey
Biggest Mismatch
Let’s be honest: The biggest mismatch of this NFC East showdown will be which team ends up being healthier.
Earlier in the week, it looked as if the Eagles would win the injury report battle, but things took a drastic turn later as the Cowboys suddenly appeared to get healthier across the board.
The loss of Jackson specifically is so key to the Philly offense as it lacks explosiveness. Not only is the offense devoid of a deep threat, it’s also clogging up everything else as opposing safeties don’t have to respect anything deep.
Once Jackson returns, the offense will open up and the alleged internal criticism of Wentz should cease. Just look at his numbers when he’s had a legit deep threat in the lineup (in Jackson and Torrey Smith): 12-2 record with 36 touchdowns, seven interceptions and a QB Rating north of 100.
Now, we don’t know who along the Cowboys’ offensive line will play, but even if everyone suits up, we can assume they won’t be at full health. And when healthy, the Cowboys’ offensive line is the strongest part of their team. They have the best tackle duo in football and it makes the entire offense go.
However, when not fully healthy and potentially undermanned, the biggest mismatch will be the Eagles’ defensive front stuffing the run game. The Eagles are allowing only 3.3 yards per carry, second in the NFL. And if the Cowboys can’t run the ball, it completely stymies their offense, primarily the play-action.
Now, if the Cowboys offensive line is healthy, Ezekiel Elliott could churn some yards and it could avoid predictable passing situations in which Dak Prescott could exploit the Eagles’ secondary — the weakest part of their defense (and team).
Speaking of offensive line play, it’ll also be interesting to see how the Eagles rookie LT Andre Dillard holds up in his first start. The first-round draft pick was absolutely abused last week after coming in for stud tackle Jason Peters last week, allowing nine pressures per PFF.
Now, to be fair, he was going up against an elite Vikings defensive edge. But the Cowboys also have more than capable edge rushers. If he’s lost out there protecting the Wentz’s blindside, it could be a long day for Wentz & Co. And Dallas, like Minnesota, will rotate its best matchup on that side and bring pressure there. — Stuckey
Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds
Projected Spread: Cowboys -2.5
Projected Total: 48
The Cowboys are dealing with a cluster injury situation at wideout, which is incredibly poor timing because the way to beat the Eagles is through the air.
If Cooper and Randall Cobb are ruled out, it’ll force Michael Gallup into the No. 1 WR role and we could see Jason Witten more involved. This doesn’t set up for a Zeke game as the Eagles have a stout run defense. Look for Dallas to use Elliott a bit more in the passing game as a result. — Sean Koerner
Expert Picks
Matthew Freedman: Eagles +2.5
The Cowboys have a head coach in Jason Garrett who consistently gets the least from his players. Under his gum-chewing, hand-clapping regime (since 2010), the Cowboys have routinely played down to the level of their opponents.
In the situations where Garrett’s Cowboys have had an edge, they have consistently underperformed.
At home, the Cowboys have allowed visiting teams to go 42-30-2 (13.9% ROI) against the spread. As favorites, they have coughed up a record of 49-35-3 ATS (13.9% ROI) to underdog opponents.
And as home favorites, the Cowboys have allowed road dogs to go 34-19-1 ATS (25.8%). No coach in the league has been more profitable to bet against as a home favorite than Garrett.
I would know. I’m a Cowboys fan.
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