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Patriots are the early betting favorites over Rams on Super Bowl LIII point spread

Frank Schwab
NFL writer
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) and his team were the early favorites in Las Vegas for Super Bowl LIII. (AP)
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) and his team were the early favorites in Las Vegas for Super Bowl LIII. (AP)

There’s already a lot of early faith in the New England Patriots winning another Super Bowl.

Not long after the Patriots’ thrilling AFC championship game win over the Kansas City Chiefs, the Los Angeles Rams opened as 1-point favorites for Super Bowl LIII at the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas, according to Lance Pugmire of the Los Angeles Times. That changed fast.

Within minutes, the favorite had flipped and the betting line favored the Patriots by 1.5 or 2 points, depending on the Las Vegas sportsbook. The line kept moving in some spots, getting up to 2.5 points at a couple of casinos before 9 p.m. Pacific Time on Sunday. Sportsbooks move betting lines based on action on one side or the other, so presumably they took Patriots bets right after setting the line. The over/under opened at 58, according to Pugmire, but that moved quickly too. It was 58.5 or 59 shortly after the line came out.

Everyone bet against the Patriots all season, according to New England T-shirt entrepreneur/receiver Julian Edelman, but apparently most people bet the Patriots when that Super Bowl line rolled out.

Underdogs have been on a roll in the Super Bowl

The Super Bowl has been dominated by underdogs most of this decade. Maybe that bodes well for the Rams, assuming they close as underdogs.

According to OddsShark’s Super Bowl point spread history, underdogs have covered six of the last seven Super Bowls. All six underdogs in that stretch won straight up. The only favorite to cover over the last seven Super Bowls? That was the Patriots, in Super Bowl LI. They had to come back from a 28-3 deficit against the Falcons to win and cover in overtime.

Last year the Philadelphia Eagles got the underdogs back on track. They beat the Patriots 41-33 as 4.5-point underdogs. That game flew past the over/under of 49, which is another trend for Super Bowls.

Most recent Super Bowls have gone over the total

After unders came through in six of eight Super Bowls, spanning from Super Bowl XXIX (New England over Philadelphia) to Super Bowl XLVI (the second New York Giants win over the Patriots), there has been a run of overs.

The over has hit in five of six Super Bowls. The only Super Bowl that went under during that stretch was the Broncos’ 24-10 win over the Panthers in Super Bowl 50.

Given that this was the first time in NFL history that the top four scoring offenses from the regular season all advanced to the conference championship round, it seems the over will be a popular bet. The Rams and Patriots both have fantastic offenses with recognizable stars. Like the Patriots, the betting public seemed to prefer the over when it was released.

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Frank Schwab is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!

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