Overturning 'Roe' May Be a Poisoned Chalice for Republicans

Jack Holmes
·3 min read
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South Carolina State Representative Neal Collins provided one of the first signals this week that some Republicans are coming down with buyer's remorse when it comes to their agenda of draconian anti-abortion laws. He cited a case recently described to him where the medical professionals at a hospital could not spare a 19-year-old woman the horror of continuing to carry a non-viable 15-week fetus because the hospital's lawyers feared they would run afoul of the "fetal heartbeat" bill Collins voted for. Not only would the woman have to suffer through losing the child at home alone, but also she stood a 50-50 chance of losing her uterus—and the chance to have another child someday. There was a 10 percent chance she herself could develop sepsis and die.

"That weighs on me. I voted for that bill. These are affecting people," Collins said.

For decades, Roe v. Wade has been a useful culture war issue for the religious right, galvanizing the Republican base with the promise of ending a perceived moral scourge in America. But now that it's all become real, and groups of (predominantly male) state lawmakers are seizing the opportunity to issue sweeping abortion bans, they are realizing that this isn't all that simple. "Abortion is healthcare" may sound like a talking point for the left, but it's also simply true. Once you ban it, abortion is no longer some theoretical issue pitting someone's religious convictions against a woman's right to bodily autonomy. It's a highly concrete "kitchen table" issue. Jobs and wages and taxes affect your ability to pay the bills, but so does your ability to choose when and whether to have a kid. And if the current tides in American politics are anything to go on, it could be a very dangerous issue for Republicans.

It's not just the polls that show abortion has rising salience as an issue. Tuesday's election results suggest Democratic voters are highly motivated. As Ryan Matsumoto points out, Democrats have outperformed Joe Biden's 2020 numbers in all four House special elections since the Dobbs decision that overturned Roe. Biden's approval numbers remain way underwater but are ticking up, at least in part due to his insistence on getting things done over the past few months. Democrats are now favored to keep the Senate, at least in part because Republicans have nominated a cast of almighty stinkers to contest seats in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Ohio and New Hampshire.

The polls are likely skewed a few points towards Democrats as usual, and things will tighten up before November. But Democrats seem to be in better shape than anyone could have reasonably expected earlier this year, and the Dobbs decision has likely played a role. Maybe Sammy Alito should put his budding career as a right-wing politico on hold. Thanks to his work, conservatives increasingly look like the dog who caught the car. Maybe, in the end, they should have stuck to barking.

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