Over/Under Week 5 - Joshua Kelley

FFL Flash Alert - With Austin Ekeler sidelined, can Joshua Kelley deliver for fantasy managers?

Video Transcript

ANDY BEHRENS: We're going to look at Joshua Kelly. And we're setting a fairly reasonable line here of 11.9 1/2 PPR fantasy points. I am going to take the over on Kelly. It's close. I don't think he goes much past 12. I get it, there are worries here, there are some ball security issues. He's been pep talked in the press by his head coach all week. They need him right now.

Obviously, Austin Ekeler leaves a huge receiving workload behind him. Kelly has been great in that regard. He's caught all of his targets. He's averaging 12 yards per reception. They've used him as the goal line guy. It's a match-up against New Orleans I think he can exploit. They've given up over 80 total yards to three different backs. Tank, no, not Tank, Liz, tell me why I'm wrong.

LIZ LOZA: I don't know if you're 100% wrong, because whoever set this line, did it very, very well. I keep waffling. But I'm ultimately going to go under, and here's why. I expect this backfield to be shared pretty close to 50-50, with Justin Jackson coming in to play the Joshua Kelly role. I'm going to talk about Justin Jackson and his efficiency a little bit later in "Fantasy Damage." That's a spoiler.

But here's the deal. I don't think this is going to be a 60-40 split. And because I'm not entirely sure about the ball security issues, especially when your head coach used to play the position professionally, that there will be enough here to make Kelly go over this line. So that's why I'm going under. Matt, where you at?

MATT HARMON: Yeah, no, I'm with you, Liz. You mentioned there's a couple of concerns here. Obviously, Justin Jackson being back. He could take the receiving workload. There's all, and that comes Josh Kelley's biggest concern, is we've seen him, and obviously Austin Ekeler being in the picture makes it a little bit of a different equation, but we've seen him be game scripted out.

Wouldn't be surprised if we see that again, especially if the Saints, who looked great on offense last week against Detroit. I know Detroit's a terrible defense, but the Chargers are pretty banged up on defense as well. So there's a couple of concerns here that're going to have me go under. But you mentioned he's a goal line guy. If he gets in the box one time, like it's over, he's going to go over this line. But I'll go with under.