Over/Under Week 15 - Diontae Johnson

FFL Flash Alert - Will the Steelers WR go over/under 13.9 half-PPR points in Week 15?

Video Transcript

- All right. Final over/under, and it's Diontae Johnson, as promised. A lot of people asking about him. It's an attainable number. It's 13.9 1/2 PPR fantasy points. And I'm going to keep the tribute to Minty rolling with the under, I'm afraid. Diontae is just, he's been rough watch. He does everything really well, except when it comes to catching the football. He is the NFL leader in drops by like a mile. He's got a dozen drops on the season, and these are short range drops as well.

Last week, it cost him a half of football. They sat him. This week, if there's any issue with Diontae at all and he misses a half, then you're basically missing the whole game. Because it's Cincinnati. This should not be particularly competitive. You guys saw the total earlier. It's 39 and 1/2. I'm not sure that Finley can lead even one scoring drive against the Pittsburgh defense. So I don't think they're going to need to do a lot of scoring.

This total suggests that he's going to need to either find the end zone or deliver 100 yards, and I think he comes up just short. JuJu, probably the only Pittsburgh receiver I trust. Jared, do you agree?

- No, I don't. You don't bet that under in the week leading up to Christmas. You just don't. People want to be excited. They got him on their fantasy team. No, I think Big Ben, they figured out, Mike Tomlin, they don't like running the ball.They like throwing the ball, and getting them into situations. And I just feel like he'll catch catches here. And he's going against the Bengals, where I don't feel like-- I mean, a touchdown isn't outrageous here.

And I just feel like at this point, this is a step back game before they get into the playoffs to get their pieces working. So they're not gonna sit him right now. They want him to really get effective and going. So I feel like he may get more targets than what he normally does. But let's go to over here. 13.9 isn't tough in a half point PPR, so I'm going over.

- Harmon, I see you nodding over there. I know you're not going to agree with me.

- Of course not. I'm also going over. And obviously, I can read you all the volume stats, all the targets, all the routes run, but you said it, Andy. They sat him last week. And I've been doing a lot of digging, through the Mike Tomlin history books here. This guy is like a master motivational guy. Players want to play for him.

I think that sitting him down that one half is finally going to help Diontae get the yips out of his head. They targeted him a couple of times, then he got back in the game in the second half, versus the Bills. I think this is all going to be fine. Drops are, they're just-- a lot of variance. A lot of noise. Doesn't always stay sticky year over year or game over game or week over week.

I think it's going to be a fine game. It's not-- it's not an aggressive number, either. So I think you can play Johnson confidently, and I'm going over here.