Merkel's government on shaky ground as coalition party head quits

Fresh from a drubbing in the European elections, Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) plunged deeper into chaos Sunday after Andrea Nahles announced she would resign as party head and its parliamentary group leader, effective today.

Nahles, who has led the troubled party since April last year, said she no longer had the support within her party to carry out her duties.

The ongoing crisis in the SPD puts the federal government in Berlin on shaky ground. As junior partner to Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats, the Social Democrats were loath to enter another coalition after the last general election. Since then, it has steadily fallen in the polls, and won under 16% of the vote in Germany in the recent European elections.

The SPD’s left wing is keen to pull out of the coalition completely, make a break with the Conservatives and go into opposition. Such a move would lead to fresh elections in Germany.

“Developments since the European elections have made the fall of the government before the 2021 elections more likely,” Carsten Brzeksi, chief economist at ING Germany, said in a note. “With the recent successes of the Greens, any fall of the government would, in our view, lead to snap elections, not just a simply reshuffling of coalition partners.”

While Merkel on Sunday tried to reassure Germany that the government coalition was safe, saying “we will continue the government's work with all seriousness,” it will depend heavily who the Social Democrats choose as their new leader.

Disarray in the SPD also forces the CDU to think about who will be their chancellor candidate should it come to early elections. It was taken almost as a given that Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer would be Merkel’s successor come 2021, however, a series of missteps – including becoming rattled by a YouTube vlogger and suggesting regulation of political opinion online — has made her no longer a shoo-in.

READ MORE: Angela Merkel defends her heir amid online censorship row

Federal finance minister and vice chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has ruled out taking over the party, but said Sunday that the SPD should not enter another coalition with the Christian Democrats.

“German politics has probably never been more exciting than it is now, and there are turbulent times ahead,” Brzeski said.