Mad Bets: Let’s bet on Tom Brady

Going over every Tom Brady prop bet offered by BetMGM for the 2020 season.

Video Transcript

MATT: Welcome back to "Mad Bets." There's more stuff to bet on-- Tom Brady's profits. Jared, Minty, really excited to have you.

I thought we'd just go through every single one offered by BetMGM. So let's start off with his total passing yards in the entire year-- over, under 4,224 passing yards. Minty, what do you think?

MINTY: Under. I like the under because although he has better targets now, he's going up against some of last season's above average passing defenses, like the Broncos, the Chargers, the Bears, the Packers. I mean, his completion rate will rise from 60.8%. But I think he throws just below 4,225 passing yards.

MATT: Jared, I feel like you're going to take the under because you are always against Tom Brady. Can we just pencil you in for the under? Or you got something else?

JARED: I'm not a big fan of Tom Brady, but I am a fan of making money. And this is going way over, OK. Bruce Arians is a quarterback risk where he loves to throw the ball deep. Last year, Jameis Winston threw for 5,100 yards. Tom Brady is bringing Gronkowski and the knowledge of what 29 years in the league is like, 106 years old.

I think that he goes over. Yeah, he's going to be at least 4,800. He has Godwin. He has Mike Evans. He gots Gronk.

And he has played against the Falcons twice a year. Falcons' pass defense, get out of here. It's going to be easy. I think he goes over it. 500 yards in both of those games put him at 1,000 just in two games alone.

MATT: I don't know, man.


MATT: I don't know. I think he might be under because if he sits out one game, it's going to be looking pretty bad. So I'm taking under. I also like just betting against Tom Brady.

JARED: Tom Brady don't sit out unless he gets suspended for cheating. And he cheats, it goes over. It goes over.

MATT: It's already been happening. It's already been happening. He's breaking into houses, Jared. All right, let's move on.

MINTY: Thank you.

MATT: One touchdown in every single game, you can get it at yes for plus 800. Jared, is there any way he's throwing a touchdown in every single game?

JARED: Absolutely. The way Bruce Arians runs his offense, he likes to throw the ball. I would imagine that their team's going to get down the field pretty easy. And, again, they're playing in-- NFL's higher scoring these day.

You're not going to get those Bears-- 1980s Bears where it's a 6 to 9 game. No, these games are going to be 28 to 31 points every game. And I just could not see Tom Brady not throwing a touchdown in those fast games.

MATT: All right, all of a sudden, we have a Tom Brady. Minty, what do you think?


MATT: You think he throws a touchdown every single one?

MINTY: Realistically, no. Based on his stats from his last five years in the league, I don't believe Brady will be throwing at least one passing touchdown per game. But H1 odds are tempting. So it doesn't hurt to sprinkle a little on the yes. I'm going to sprinkle a little on the yes just because it is a good number.

MATT: Ugh, man. There's no way--

MINTY: Sorry.

MATT: --he's throwing a touchdown in every single one. There's going to be one game where it's a low scoring game, they run it in. I'm taking the no. I'm taking the no even though it's not even valuable.

There's no money to be made in that. Last but not least, we got the MVP odds-- 14 to 1 that Tom Brady wins MVP somehow. Minty, tell me that's not going to happen.

MINTY: I do not think it's going to happen. This is a very talented roster. And, yes, Bruce Arians is a pass-friendly coach. But the only way this is going to happen that Tom Brady is going to win MVP is if he-- if the Bucks can have a double-digit winning season and make it to the playoffs while putting up record breaking numbers. But I don't see that happening his first season with Tampa Bay.

MATT: That's what I like to hear. Jared, are you now a Tom Brady fan just because he's not on the Patriots? Or what's going on? You think he's going to win MVP, Jared?

JARED: Tom Brady wins the MVP. No, I'm joking. I'm joking, no. It's hard to pick the MVP, though. That's why the odds are great for everybody.

It's hard to pick the MVP. I just think you have to have the best record in the NFL. I do not think the Bucks will have that record. And unless he starts doing HGH or something, he's like 49 years old. You can't put up your best season at 49 years old.

So unless he throws 50 touchdowns like Peyton Manning did, I just don't see it happening. But, you know, if you got money to blow, throw it-- throw it on it. Who cares?

Put that on-- Lamar Jackson, put some money on him to win MVP. Put some money on my brother, Calais. Calais win MVP, he about to get 46 sacks this year.

MATT: And he's probably like 100,000 to 1 to win, even though he could definitely do it. I'll sprinkle a little--

JARED: Put $2 on him.

MATT: --on Calais.

JARED: Put $2 on him.

MATT: I got you. I got you. I'm not putting anything on Tom Brady, so. If you guys want to get on the action, you can go to and sign up today. New users get 100% match up to $1,000, available in Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, and New Jersey.