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Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey is fun. He’s electric when the ball is in his hands, making him must-see entertainment for a team that continues to score and win despite losing its starting quarterback weeks ago.
And don’t forget that McCaffrey’s gaudy numbers have solidified him as the top fantasy football player through the first six weeks of the season.
Because of this, many mainstream media types have mentioned McCaffrey as a frontrunner to be the 2019 NFL MVP.
Thankfully, we have Vegas odds to help cut through the emotion of what’s flashy and new to give realistic expectations for the players leading the pack.
Spoiler alert: McCaffrey is not the favorite to win NFL MVP.
In fact, his MVP odds actually dropped from 10-1 to 12-1 following Carolina’s Week 6 win against Tampa Bay, a game in which McCaffrey managed just 31 yards on 22 carries and adding only 26 yards receiving.
Here’s a look at how McCaffrey’s MVP odds have moved at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas since June.
Christian McCaffrey NFL MVP odds
Russell Wilson, who has thrown for 14 touchdowns with zero interceptions while completing 72.5 percent of his passes for the 5-1 Seattle Seahawks, is the new MVP favorite with 2-1 odds.
Patrick Mahomes (+225), who had been the favorite since odds opened, fell to the No. 2 spot after the Kansas City Chiefs lost their second straight game.
If we truly want to talk about MVP movers, the mainstream conversation should be centered around Deshaun Watson, who catapulted from 12-1 before Week 6 to 4-1 this week.
Minnesota running back Dalvin Cook (20-1) isn’t that far off McCaffrey’s odds, but there hasn’t been a peep about the Vikings’ workhorse entering the MVP conversation.
From an implied probability standpoint, McCaffrey’s current odds of 12-1 convert to a 7.69% chance of winning NFL MVP, and that’s before adjusting for the vig that sportsbooks charge to place bets. So, McCaffrey’s true chances of winning the award are even lower.
There’s no denying that McCaffrey is on pace for one of the greatest seasons from a running back in NFL history, but let’s hold off on the MVP talk until Vegas decides he’s on par with the true frontrunners.
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