Saints vs. Packers: Start Alvin Kamara. Mark Ingram is coming off the huge game, but Kamara figures to benefit from the Saints’ less crowded backfield as well, and last week’s game script was fluky with New Orleans scoring three defensive touchdowns.
Start Brett Hundley, who’s at home in what could easily turn into a shootout. Hundley is plenty familiar with Green Bay’s system and now has a full week of practice with first team reps (he’s also been a monster in preseasons, for what it’s worth), and his workout metrics were off the charts (including a 95th percentile SPARQ score). The Packers still have a ton of weapons, and Hundley is practically free in DFS this week.
Ravens vs. Vikings: Sit Javorius Allen, who’s still locked in a timeshare and is up against a Minnesota front seven that’s ceded just 3.2 YPC and one rushing touchdown this year.
Start the Vikings defense, as they are at home facing Joe Flacco, who’s posted a 1:6 TD:INT ratio over the past five games. Minny’s D is moderately priced in DFS, but they are No. 1 on my board this week…Also with Stefon Diggs out, Adam Thielen is going to be a target hog and a borderline WR1.
Browns vs. Titans: Start Duke Johnson, if for no other reason than there’s no one else worth talking about on the Browns. The Titans are one of nine teams to have allowed more than 300 receiving yards to running backs.
Start Eric Decker, who saw season highs in targets (nine), catches (seven) and yards (88) last week and gets a Browns secondary that’s allowed 14 passing touchdowns and a 111.0 Passer Rating, which are both NFL highs (and Jason McCourty, who’s PFF’s No. 1 graded cover corner, left Friday’s practice with an injured ankle). Delanie Walker might very well miss this game as well. Also treat Derrick Henry as a clear top-10 RB if DeMarco Murray is out.
Jaguars vs. Colts: These will be game-time decisions, but start Chris Ivory and/or Allen Hurns if Leonard Fournette and/or Marqise Lee sits. The Colts are allowing an NFL-high 32.5 ppg this season. The next highest is Tennessee at 27.3
He’ll be tough to sit in yearly formats, given T.Y. Hilton has averaged 126.3 yards at home this season, but he’s someone to avoid in DFS, as Jacksonville has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers and an NFL-low 60.0 Passer Rating.
Jets vs. Dolphins: Start Austin Seferian-Jenkins, as he’s racked up 19 targets over the last two weeks, and his four looks inside the five-yard line are second only to Rob Gronkowski among all receivers in the league, and ASJ was suspended the first two games of the year.
Start Jarvis Landry, who will once again see a bunch of targets with DeVante Parker likely to sit. Landry has even seen a couple of targets inside the 10-yard line the past two games.
Buccaneers vs. Bills: Sit Jameis Winston, as while it looks like he’s going to play, he’ll be doing so with a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder, and he faces a Bills secondary that’s yielded a 2:8 TD:INT ratio and the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Start Nick O’Leary, who’s suddenly one of Tyrod Taylor’s main options with Charles Clay out, Jordan Matthews still banged up and few other options in the aerial attack. Also fire up LeSean McCoy in DFS, as while he’s still searching for his first score of the year after hitting paydirt 14 times last season, he’s primed to break out at home in this matchup while approaching 30 touches.
Panthers vs. Bears: Sit Kelvin Benjamin, who’s expected to play but is banged up, on the road against a solid defense, and Devin Funchess is quietly emerging as Cam Newton’s preferred target.
Sit all Bears other than Jordan Howard, who remains plenty useful thanks to volume. Otherwise, this offense is a mess under rookie Mitchell Trubisky.
Cardinals vs. Rams: Start John Brown. Larry Fitzgerald is coming off a huge game, but Brown has scored in back-to-back weeks and most importantly is finally back to 100 percent. He’s in for a big second half of the season.
Sit Sammy Watkins, as the disappointing wideout is once again up against a top cover corner in Patrick Peterson. Meanwhile, likely lined up against Tramon Williams for most of the day, Robert Woods makes for a sneaky DFS play this week.
Cowboys vs. 49ers: Sit Jason Witten. He caught 8-of-10 targets during his last game but hasn’t scored since Week 2, and the 49ers have allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
Start George Kittle, whose impressive workout metrics have translated to the rare productive rookie season by a tight end. He has a 20+ yard catch in three straight games and seven red-zone targets over his last two and now has his college quarterback throwing to him.
Bengals vs. Steelers: Start Joe Mixon, whose snaps continue to rise under new OC Bill Lazor and gets a Steelers defense that’s allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs. The window to buy Mixon low ends after this week.
Sit Ben Roethlisberger, as while he’s always better at home, the Bengals have yielded an NFL-low 5.6 YPA, and the over/under in this game is just 40.5 points.
Seahawks vs. Giants: Start Jimmy Graham, as this one is simple. He continues to get targeted in the end zone (six on the year), and the Giants have allowed an NFL-high seven touchdowns to tight ends.
Broncos vs. Chargers: Start Bennie Fowler if you’re in a deep league or looking for a super cheap WR in DFS, as Emmanuel Sanders is out, and Demaryius Thomas will be matched up against Casey Hayward, so the opportunity should be there.
Start Hunter Henry, who has 35 more snaps than Antonio Gates over the past two games and is facing a Denver defense that’s ceded the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Falcons vs. Patriots: Start Austin Hooper, who’s seen 16 targets over the last two games after totaling six over the first three contests, and he was rarely off the field last week. There are going to be a ton of passes Sunday night in a game with a week-high O/U of 56 points.
Sit Mike Gillislee, as he hasn’t scored since Week 2 and played just 13 snaps last week (while losing a fumble). The Falcons have allowed just two rushing scores on the year, and the Patriots’ passing down backs project as better plays in what should be a shootout.
Washington vs. Eagles: Start Josh Doctson. He’s been a disappointment but so have the rest of Washington’s pass catchers. The former first round pick is expected to be a bigger part of the offense moving forward, and the Eagles have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Sit Alshon Jeffery. He’s going to become a buy-low candidate soon enough, but it’s bad news Josh Norman returned to practice this week. Jeffery has seen one target inside the 10-yard line this season (and none inside the five).