Disparity in ADP of QBs and their offensive weapons | Yahoo Fantasy Football Podcast

Yahoo Sports fantasy expert Scott Pianowski is joined by Renee Miller to talk about teams who Quarterbacks are being valued lower than their offensive weapons.

Video Transcript

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: We were talking a little bit in email about ADPs and quarterbacks and receivers. And sometimes we can see a team where-- I remember a few years ago Eli Manning had this situation where everybody liked Eli Manning's pieces, and Eli Manning was quarterback 25. And the idea was like, well, wait a minute. If Beckham's gonna be the fourth best receiver, and Engram's gonna to be the number seven tight end, and we like Barkley, how can we not like Eli Manning?

It just doesn't work that way. I mean, the math doesn't work out. Are there any teams this year that seem to fit that profile for you? And how are you navigating it?

RENEE MILLER: This year the team that stands out to me is the Rams. The biggest mismatch in terms of the weapons versus the quarterback is Goff, who's being drafted late teens, 19-ish, 17-ish, depending where you look. And he supported two top-20 receivers last year and a top-10 tight end, and we have those guys ranked the same. Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Tyler Higbee are all ranked near the top of their position and being drafted accordingly.

You said the logic. How are they all gonna finish at their ADP value if Goff doesn't? Goff was also drafted really late last year. He finished as QB 13. So he's one.

I think Wentz is another one. He's a little more borderline because he's actually going kind of appropriately higher this year than he did last year with maybe some improved receiving options if Jalen Reagor lives up to the hype and Miles Sanders.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: I want to say about Goff, it was 15 minutes ago that everybody thought Sean McVay had invented football and invented offensive football. And we move on so quickly sometimes. He's still a really smart guy.

I think Tyler Higbee is the flash point for fantasy this year. Because some people might say, well, hey, he just had four straight 100-yard games. He was the number one tight end in December. Why wouldn't they go back to that? They found something that worked.

And then other people will say, well, wait a minute. He was the number two. Everett was hurt. A couple of the matchups were really easy. That was a fluke.

Bill James, the baseball statistician, he has a term called signature significance, which is you can throw out the size of a sample if it's something so overwhelming. Like if a baseball pitcher threw a no-hitter and struck out 17 guys, it's almost impossible for somebody who isn't of great skill to do that. That's unlikely to be a fluke. It just doesn't happen enough.

And I think what Higbee did last year, the four straight 100-yard games, there's only a handful of tight ends-- and they're all studs like Kelce and the former version of Jimmy Graham. Guys like that are the people who have done that. It doesn't mean Higbee is gonna be that good. But when I see his ADP-- I know he's like tight end seven, tight end eight-- I'm totally willing to get on board with that.

And Goff's a guy I like because, again, I like Kupp, I like Woods. I am a believer in Higbee. I am a believer in McVay.

And because he's a boring player now-- everybody's over Jared Goff-- I always feel like you get an extra round or two of value. Now quarterback is so deep that it's possible to get a value quarterback at almost any juncture of the draft. You just have to like somebody a little bit more than everybody else. But I think there's like a boring discount with Goff, and yet I still think he has top-10 positional upside.


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