Bafta TV 2024 predictions: who will win, who should win

Sarah Lancashire in Happy Valley
Sarah Lancashire in Happy Valley - BBC

Well, where do we begin? The anticipated Bafta showdown between the final series of Happy Valley and Succession has become a showdown between a frankly godawful final series of The Crown and a frankly random episode of Black Mirror. One day, whole books will be written about the year that Demon 79 – a Black Mirror episode about a vengeful spirit played by Paapa Essiedu – gathered more nominations than Happy Valley, Succession, Slow Horses and The Long Shadow. There may even be a chapter on the outrageous snub given to James Norton in a perplexing Leading Actor category or the total absence of Blue Lights, one of the best BBC dramas in years.

Given these baffling decisions, only a fool would try to guess who’ll actually win the things. So, ahead of this Sunday’s ceremony, here we go…

Drama Series

The Gold, BBC One

Happy Valley, BBC One

Slow Horses, Apple TV+

Top Boy, Netflix

Should win: Happy Valley

Will win: Happy Valley

You’d be a brave bookie to even take bets on this one. Sally Wainwright rounded off her mighty Calder Valley crime drama with a third and final series every bit as good as the previous two, and a kitchen-table denouement that took your breath away with its daring simplicity and lack of explosive action. With respect to the other nominees, if Happy Valley doesn’t win, Bafta needs its collective heads knocking together.


Limited Drama

Best Interests, BBC One

Demon 79 (Black Mirror), Netflix

The Long Shadow, ITV1

The Sixth Commandment, BBC One

Should win: The Sixth Commandment

Will win: The Long Shadow

I won’t bang on about Demon 79 – honestly, there should be a steward’s inquiry – but will instead focus on three exceptional dramas. Best Interests, about a mother and father’s decision to end the life of their terminally ill daughter, was a heavyweight gut punch, but will likely lose out to one of the true-crime dramas. I’d pick Sarah Phelp’s lean three-parter, but The Long Shadow had a greater impact.

Katherine Kelly in The Long Shadow
Katherine Kelly in The Long Shadow - Justin Slee/ITV

Leading Actress

Anjana Vasan, Demon 79 (Black Mirror)

Anne Reid, The Sixth Commandment

Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us

Helena Bonham Carter, Nolly

Sarah Lancashire, Happy Valley

Sharon Horgan, Best Interests

Should win: Helena Bonham Carter

Will win: Sarah Lancashire

A heavyweight list, this one. Ramsey and Vasan will get their time, while you couldn’t sniff at Horgan grabbing the award. I wasn’t the biggest fan of Russell T Davies’s Nolly, about Crossroads actress Noele Gordon, but sometimes you have to tip your hat to a powerhouse performance. Bonham Carter was magnificent. Lancashire, however, will likely win it – hopefully, she’ll mention James Norton in her acceptance speech. Anne Reid should be on the Supporting Actress list.

Helena Bonham Carter in Nolly
Helena Bonham Carter in Nolly

Leading Actor

Brian Cox, Succession

Dominic West, The Crown

Kane Robinson, Top Boy

Paapa Essiedu, The Lazarus Project

Steve Coogan, The Reckoning

Timothy Spall, The Sixth Commandment

Should win: James Norton (but from this list? Steve Coogan)

Will win: Steve Coogan

A head-scratching list, made perverse by the lack of James Norton, whose performance in the final series of Happy Valley almost outshone that of Sarah Lancashire (is there higher praise?). Cox has been sensational as Logan Roy, but was mainly a corpse in the final series. Essiedu, Robinson and West are superb actors, but none of their respective performances were out of this world. Spall, like Anne Reid, should be on the Supporting list. And no Michael Sheen for Best Interests? Harsh. That leaves Coogan, whose bravura performance as Jimmy Savile outstripped an uneven and disappointing drama. My flesh still crawls when I think of it.


Supporting Actress

Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown

Harriet Walter, Succession

Jasmine Jobson, Top Boy

Lesley Manville, The Crown

Nico Parker, The Last of Us

Siobhan Finneran, Happy Valley

Should win: Siobhan Finneran

Will win: Lesley Manville

The Crown can’t have got all of those nominations to walk away with nothing, and they have two bites of the cherry here. I have been unmoved by Debicki’s impression of Princess Diana and feel that Manville’s portrayal of Princess Margaret’s undignified end will have made a greater impression on voters. Tip of the hat to Jobson, who has been excellent throughout Top Boy and will go onto bigger things. Tip of the hat to Nico Parker’s agent for getting her on this list at all.

Imelda Staunton and Elizabeth Debicki in The Crown
Imelda Staunton and Elizabeth Debicki in The Crown - Netflix

Supporting Actor

Amit Shah, Happy Valley

Eanna Hardwicke, The Sixth Commandment

Harris Dickinson, A Murder at the End of the World

Jack Lowden, Slow Horses

Matthew MacFadyen, Succession

Salim Daw, The Crown

Should win: Eanna Hardwicke

Will win: Matthew MacFadyen

Awards voters simply can’t get enough of MacFadyen’s turn as the chinless shock absorber Tom Wambsgans – and who can blame them, it’s extraordinary. However, I’d plump for Irish actor Hardwicke (who should be on the leading actor list, vying with James Norton for that award). His performance as the real-life killer Ben Field was a towering edifice of preening pomposity and deluded grandeur. As chilling a psychopath as has ever been portrayed on British TV.

Matthew MacFadyen in Succession
Matthew MacFadyen in Succession - HBO

Scripted Comedy

Big Boys, Channel 4

Dreaming Whilst Black, BBC Three

Extraordinary, Disney+

Such Brave Girls, BBC Three

Should win: Dreaming Whilst Black

Will win: Dreaming Whilst Black

A strong category – hurray for British comedy – but there is a clear standout. Big Boys continued its excellence with a strong second series, while Extraordinary has been a fine shop window for the talents of creator Emma Moran. Kat Sadler announced herself as one to watch with the slightly unhinged Such Brave Girls (and indeed scooped Best Emerging Talent at last month’s Bafta Television Craft Awards, where Big Boys won for Best Writer: Comedy), but it’s Adjani Salmon’s complex, needling Dreaming Whilst Black that should get this one. A comedy of serious depth.

Adjani Salmon in Dreaming While Black
Adjani Salmon in Dreaming While Black

Female Performance in a Comedy

Bridget Christie, The Change

Gbemisola Ikumelo, Black Ops

Mairead Tyers, Extraordinary

Roisin Gallagher, The Lovers

Sofia Oxenham, Extraordinary

Taj Atwal, Hullraisers

Should win: Roisin Gallagher

Will win: Gbemisola Ikumelo

Arguably a six-horse race, with things to love about all the performances. However, the underrated The Lovers deserves something, and not least for Gallagher’s gloriously foul-mouthed Belfast supermarket worker who finds herself in a complicated romance with an English media personality. Ikumelo, however, is a force of nature and a comic actress you suspect we will be enjoying for many years to come.


Male Performance in a Comedy

Adjani Salmon, Dreaming Whilst Black

David Tennant, Good Omens

Hammed Animashaun, Black ops

Jamie Demetriou, A Whole Lifetime with Jamie Demetriou

Joseph Gilgun, Brassic

Mawaan Rizwan, Juice

Should win: Adjani Salmon

Will win: Joseph Gilgun

Well, he did such a nice job of hosting the Film Baftas that it would be rude not to nominate Tennant for something. Always nice to have him on the red carpet too. However, this is a three-way race between Salmon, Animashaun and Gilgun. Salmon’s performance, I fear, is a little downbeat to get the win, while Animashaun is arguably overshadowed by co-star Ikumelo. Why not Gilgun, whose wonderfully chaotic Brassic has never quite had the credit it deserves.


International

The Bear, Disney+

Beef, Netflix

Class Act, Netflix

The Last of Us, HBO/Sky Atlantic

Love & Death, ITVX

Succession, HBO/Sky Atlantic

Should win: Beef

Will win: Succession

Bafta will wave goodbye to one of the greatest TV dramas in decades, giving Jesse Armstrong yet another trinket for his groaning mantelpiece. Can’t be sniffed at, but I’d go with Beef – watching it was like having an ice-cold bucket of water chucked over your face.


TV Baftas 2024: the other nominees

Comedy Entertainment

The Graham Norton Show

Late Night Lycett

Would I Lie To You?

Current Affairs

Inside Russia: Traitors and Heroes (Storyville)

Putin vs The West

Russell Brand: In Plain Sight (Dispatches)

The Shamima Begum Story (This World)

Daytime

Loose Women and Men

Lorraine

Make It at Market

Scam Interceptors

Entertainment

Hannah Waddingham: Home for Christmas

Later … with Jools Holland

Michael McIntyre’s Big Show

Strictly Come Dancing

Entertainment Performance

Anthony McPartlin and Declan Donnelly: I’m A Celebrity… Get Me Out of Here!

Big Zuu: Big Zuu’s Big Eats

Graham Norton:The Graham Norton Show

Hannah Waddingham: Eurovision Song Contest 2023

Joe Lycett: Late Night Lycett

Rob Beckett, Romesh Ranganathan: Rob & Romesh Vs

Factual Entertainment

Celebrity Race Across the World

The Dog House

Endurance: Race to the Pole

Portrait Artist of the Year

Factual Series

Dublin Narcos

Evacuation

Lockerbie

Once Upon a Time in Northern Ireland

Female Performance in a Comedy

Bridget Christie: The Change

Gbemisola Ikumelo: Black Ops

Máiréad Tyers: Extraordinary

Rosin Gallagher: The Lovers

Sofia Oxenham: Extraordinary

Taj Atwal: Hullraisers

News Coverage

Channel 4 News: Inside Gaza: Israel and Hamas at War

Sky News: Inside Myanmar - The Hidden War

Sky News: Israel-Hamas War

Reality

Banged up

Married At First Sight

My Mum, Your Dad

Squid Game: The Challenge

Short Form

Mobility

The Skewer: Three Twisted Years

Stealing Ukraine’s Children: Inside Russia’s Camps

Where It Ends

Single Documentary

David Holmes: The Boy Who Lived

Ellie Simmonds: Finding my Secret Family

Hatton

Vjeran Tomic: The Spider-Man of Paris

Soap

Casualty

EastEnders

Emmerdale

Specialist Factual

Chimp Empire

The Enfield Poltergeist

Forced Out

White Nanny, Black Child

Sports Coverage

Cheltenham Festival Day One

MOTD Live: FIFA Women’s World Cup 2023

Wimbledon 2023 Men’s Final

P&O Cruises Memorable Moment Award (voted for by the public)

Beckham:  David teases Victoria about her ‘working class’ upbringing

Doctor Who: Ncuti Gatwa being revealed as the 15th Doctor

Happy Valley: Catherine Cawood and Tommy Lee Royce’s final kitchen showdown

The Last of Us: Bill and Frank’s Story

The Piano: 13-year old Lucy stuns commuters with jaw dropping piano performance

Succession: Logan Roy’s death


The TV Baftas will be shown on BBC One, May 12, at 7pm

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