Can Andrea Riseborough (‘To Leslie’) pull a last-minute Best Actress Oscar upset?

Hunter K. Taylor
·5 min read
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One of the largest surprises on Oscar nomination morning was the inclusion of Andrea Riseborough in the Best Actress lineup for her performance as the disgraced lottery winner and alcoholic Leslie Rowlands in “To Leslie.” Precious few awards pundits thought she was a serious contender for a bid, despite a well-publicized social media campaign from her various friends and colleagues in the industry. Can Riseborough now pull a last-minute Best Actress Oscar upset?

Academy voters who may not have sought out “To Leslie” prior to the noms suddenly have a valid reason to watch the film, which puts her performance firmly in their mind’s eye. Her main competition, front-runners Cate Blanchett (playing the titular Lydia Tár in “Tár”) and Michelle Yeoh (portraying the universe hopping Evelyn Wang in “Everything Everywhere All at Once”) premiered several months ago, along with the others in the category (Ana de Armas as Marilyn Monroe in “Blonde” and Michelle Williams as Mitzi Fabelman in “The Fabelmans”). Perhaps recency bias can work in Riseborough’s favor, with her performance being fresh in voters’ minds.

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Her biggest obstacle, getting the nomination, has already been conquered. Before the social media blitz, generated by A-listers such as Edward Norton and Jane Fonda, Riseborough was on virtually zero prediction lists, with only an Independent Spirit Award nomination to her name. This push by fellow actors and actresses worked like lightning in a bottle, achieving what many pundits dismissed as impossible, or highly improbable. If she can carry off a feat of this nature, who’s to say that the passion behind her nomination won’t make its presence known when final voting commences?

Shortly after the surprise upset, the Academy announced it would conduct a review of campaign procedures. Though it did not mention Riseborough or “To Leslie,” many speculated that this inquiry was a direct result of her inclusion. This put a sour taste in the mouths of many celebrities, including Christina Ricci, who stated in a now deleted Instagram post: “Seems hilarious that the ‘surprise nomination’ (meaning tons of money wasn’t spent to position this actress) of a legitimately brilliant performance is being met with an investigation,” expressing her frustration with the examination. Riseborough’s own costar, Marc Maron, expressed his distaste for the situation on his podcast “WTF with Marc Maron,” noting that “Millions of dollars [are] put into months and months of advertising campaigns, publicity, screenings by large corporate entertainment entities, and Andrea was championed by her peers through a grassroots campaign which was pushed through by a few actors.”

The Academy’s decision, explicitly relating to the “To Leslie” nomination or not, clearly struck a nerve among actors, which could manifest into another wave of support for Riseborough. If she can garner enough sympathy from voters, it might be the extra nudge she needs to pull ahead in the tight race.

SEEAndrea Riseborough: ‘To Leslie’ didn’t have ‘hundreds of millions of dollars … and that’s as it should be’ [Complete Interview Transcript]

Campaign and controversy aside, one of the strengths that Riseborough can safely rely on is simply her performance. Her portrayal is both bombastic and surgical, playing to her strengths as a chameleonic performer, with The Hollywood Reporter’s film critic Sheri Linden stating, “Leslie is played to riveting perfection by Andrea Riseborough.”

We have seen the Academy go for large performances in this category quite recently, with last year’s champion Jessica Chastain (portraying Tammy Faye Messner in “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”), as well as several other victors of the previous decade, notably Renée Zellweger as Judy Garland in “Judy,” Olivia Colman as Queen Anne in “The Favourite,” and Frances McDormand as Mildred Hayes in “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Riseborough’s “go for broke” achievement could speak for itself, and net her the gold, regardless of the baggage her nomination may carry.

With the race tightening up as each day passes, voters might find themselves torn between the two frontrunners, Blanchett and Yeoh. Both actresses have received numerous accolades this season, so the two seem to be at a stalemate. This could provide an interesting pathway for Riseborough to emerge as an alternative selection. With a race that seems to get closer as seconds pass, Riseborough’s baity performance, recency bias, and extremely unusual narrative could give her just the edge she needs to nab the prize.

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