What Will Air Travel Look Like Post-COVID-19?

When Ryan Medina got through security at Newark Airport on April 27, he did what he always does: checked his flight status on the departures board. There were four screens, as usual; however, only one was alight with gate numbers and boarding times. “A third of them were in the red,” says Medina. Canceled, canceled, canceled. He scanned for his plane to Dallas—on time. So he trudged through the terminal, careful to make sure his mask covered his face. The only store open was a singular Hudson News. “It’s a ghost town,” he thought.

He’d seen pictures of empty flights on social media, but his, one of the few taking off that day, was surprisingly full. (Weeks later, several crowded flights would go viral on social media, passengers irate that social distancing was not being enforced.) Most of his fellow fliers were wearing masks—optional at the time, but now, for most carriers, mandatory. Some even paired them with googles. There was no food or beverage cart wheeled by permanently polite flight attendants. In fact, they only strode down the aisles when someone pushed a call button. The whole experience, he says, “was bizarre.”

On April 14—a week before Medina boarded his flight—American airports hit a record low. Only 87,534 passengers passed through TSA checkpoints, down from 2,208,688 the year before. The last time numbers hovered at that level? 1954—two years after the first commercial passenger jet and four years before the first commercial transatlantic flight.

While every business is affected by COVID-19, aviation has been completely upended. Travel bans brought international travel to a grinding halt. Domestic demand plummeted: Delta, for example, temporarily suspended its direct route from JFK to Heathrow—a gobsmacking thought a mere four months ago. Meanwhile, American Airlines is cutting 70% of its domestic flight schedule this summer due to decreased demand. The declines make sense: With most offices and tourist attractions closed, there was, and is, nowhere to go. And no reason—if you don’t absolutely need to, why sit in a cramped, crowded, de facto contagion tube for hours on end? On the same day as their rock-bottom record, the industry received a $25 billion bailout from Congress.

Airlines have already enacted drastic changes: Delta blocked middle seats and boards 10 guests at a time. JetBlue suspended beverage and snack service. Many are capping cabin occupancy at 50% when possible, and all are increasing the rigor of their sanitization process. With much of the country reopening, it’s possible these measures relax in the next few months. But just because a threat lessens doesn’t mean the scars do. After September 11, air travel for the average American changed entirely. Cockpit doors became bulletproof. Passengers over age 18 needed valid, government-issued identification. The TSA was created. It’s likely this new national tragedy will also leave air travel forever changed. “Even after the restrictions are lifted on social distancing, there’s going to be a mindset that stays with consumers for a really long time,” says Misty Belles, managing director at Virtuoso.

So what will flying look like in a post-COVID-19 age? Scott Duncan has an idea. As a partner at Skidmore, Owings & Merrill, he’s designed several high-profile and highly trafficked terminals, such as Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminal 2 in Mumbai and Changi Terminal 3 in Singapore (ranked the best airport in the world.) Currently, he’s working on a new high-rise project in Wuhan, where he saw firsthand how his client’s interests changed pre- and post-coronavirus: natural ventilation, sunlight, and green areas, once aesthetic add-ons, became priorities. Duncan is already implementing those lessons into a new global terminal he’s building at the Chicago airport. “It’s something that we were already proposing at O’Hare,” he said. “Outdoor spaces are going from ‘Oh, this is nice to have’ to ‘It’s a genuine amenity and maybe a necessity to travel.’”

A rendering of the new, natural-light filled global concourse at O'Hare airport in Chicago. Skidmore, Owings, & Merrill Partner Scott Duncan says architecture that employs fresh-air will be paramount in post-pandemic design.
A rendering of the new, natural-light filled global concourse at O'Hare airport in Chicago. Skidmore, Owings, & Merrill Partner Scott Duncan says architecture that employs fresh-air will be paramount in post-pandemic design.

Boarding gates—overflowing with bodies, babies, and carry-on bags—may belong to a bygone area. Here’s what Duncan envisions: “There could be beautiful waiting areas that are remote from the gate lounge with a spaced-out, pod environment. It’s cleaned frequently, and it’s comfortable. They’re likely a little bit away, but your phone will notify you when it’s time to board. We will see more things that isolate people spatially.”

Some other examples? Bright-colored grids that tell where to stand six feet apart in customs, among other visual social distancing cues. Duncan also predicts additional security stations, for mandatory temperature checks (in Abu Dhabi and Rome, authorities are already donning futuristic, fever-scanning helmets) or even nasal swabbing. Last week, the Vienna airport began offering COVID-19 tests upon departure and arrival for 190 euros. Passengers head to a lab site near the terminals to undergo a PCR test. The results take three hours. If all clear, they can skip the (otherwise mandatory) 14-day quarantine. If positive, the Austrian authorities are notified.

But perhaps the biggest seismic shift, according to Duncan? “You really don’t need to interact with a human to get on a plane.”

On Sunday, United rolled out a new feature: self-printed bag tags, before you even show up at the airport. The premise is simple: You register your suitcase on your phone. Then, in the airport entry hall, you scan your mobile-generated Q.R. at a kiosk. The stick-on paper prints out; you attach it yourself and then roll your bags to clearly labeled drop point. No need to deal with a desk agent or even press buttons with your own fingers. “There was a lot of touch in that part of the process,” says Maria Walters, United’s managing director of customer strategy, of the previous checked-luggage process. “But we’re able now to have somebody use the United app or online check-in and then simply scan a Q.R. code to have your bag tag printed out immediately. You don’t need to do that traditional interaction.”

“Traditional interaction”—a.k.a. the old way of doing things, one that involved a lot of talking, tactile maneuvers, and, hell, a lot of germ-emitting humans. That will likely be a thing of the past. More and more companies like United are pivoting to what Walters calls a “digital environment” that’s completely contactless. It relies heavily on smartphones, a sole-user device that circumvents the need for in-person—or even shared touchscreen—interactions. Mobile boarding passes will become the new norm. (As of now, says Walters, two-thirds of United’s customers still print their tickets. She expects that to change.) Apps will be the go-to claim center for lost baggage rather than an office. Canceled flight? United’s working on a feature where you can choose a hotel option from your phone—no haggling with a gate agent required.

Artificial intelligence will also ramp up: In May, Pittsburgh became the first airport in America to use ultraviolet-ray floor-cleaning robots.

How do you solve the possible coronavirus-spreading congestion that forms in security lines and during boarding? One word: biometrics. Companies like Clear, whose machines scan your irises to verify your identity, are already cropping up in airport checkpoints across America. United, according to Walters, is exploring expanding facial recognition at flight gates in lieu of ticket scanning. Right now, the technology, also used by airlines like Delta, is only at select airports and for international flights. Will that rollout be accelerated due to the current pandemic? “It’s fair to say we’re looking at all those opportunities,” she says.

And that’s just the technology you might encounter before getting on a plane. Last week, Airbus announced they are developing sensors that can smell coronavirus. Originally meant for explosives—think a robot version of a bomb-sniffing dog—they’re now being readapted to detect biohazards instead. They plan to start testing by late 2020. Global travel, once credited for spreading the pandemic, may actually help to slow it.

After the scan, it’s time to take your seat. But, instead of being sandwiched next to the long-legged businessman in 24C, you’ll possibly be in your own little bubble. Aviointeriors recently released designs for seats with easy-to-clean, plastic dividers—ensuring you don’t even bump elbows with your neighbors, let alone inhale in the remnants of their sneeze. For even more social and spatial distance, a second mock-up shows the middle seat facing the opposite way of the window and aisle.

Airlines for years have been packing their cabins like sardines and shrinking seat sizes, often to the chagrin of their customers—so much so that there was a recent petition about it that a judge ordered the FAA to address. So Aviointeriors’s creations, along with temporary solutions like vacant middle seats, are a welcome change for many. It may, however, have its downsides: “As airlines look at capacity and have to limit some of that capacity, prices are going to rise,” Belles predicts.

Addressing the threat of COVID-19 for any industry is a complicated one. There’s government regulations, CDC recommendations, border closures, severely impacted cities with strict policies, and then those with not-so-strict policies. And with the situation (and society’s reactions to it) evolving constantly, so too is aviation’s response. So what will air travel look like six months, one year, two years from now? Right now, there are some innovations, creations, and ideas. But much of it is still up in the air.

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Originally Appeared on Vogue