5 Best NFL Predictions Against The Spread Week 14
5 best predictions for this week’s NFL slate. What appear to be the best bets and picks for the Week 14 games?
5 Best College Football Predictions Against the Spread NFL Week 14
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Bowls Dec 16-19: College Week 14: NFL
– Week 14 NFL Schedule, Predictions
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Because I didn’t screw up the world enough with my best college picks against the spread – I was actually hovering over 60% until a late crash brought me down to 55% – here we go with the best-looking NFL picks against the spread.
A slew of the tried-and-true college theories – always go under on a point total over 70, late-season double-digit home dogs – don’t apply here, but don’t worry, There are some NFL versions that are just as wacky.
The 5 Best Bowl Picks, Part 1, coming early next week. First we start with the NFL by going completely off the deep end.
Click on each game for the game preview
5. Houston at Dallas
LINE Dallas -17.5
ATS PICK Houston
Yes, I absolutely buy into the idea of You’re Never Wrong Taking An NFL Underdog theory. But Indianapolis-Dallas happens.
The Colts +11 was the call – just because. That wasn’t Alabama vs Austin Peay. Those were grown men who get paid a lot of money – yes, even more than Alabama – and they usually find ways to keep games from going totally off the rails.
Dallas 54, Indianapolis 19.
However, that took a bizarre 33-point Cowboy fourth quarter to get there. That’s not to say the explosion couldn’t happen against a Houston team that’s dead last in the NFL against the run and now has to deal with Zeke and Tony.
But the crazy part is that the 1-10-1 Texans aren’t getting rocked. They don’t have the talent, and they can’t seem to score, but the biggest loss among the ten was by 18 against Las Vegas. That was because Josh Jacobs decided to single-handedly win everyone’s fantasy week in the fourth quarter with two scores, and then a late pick six sealed the 21-point run to crank up the difference.
Whatever. Dallas has won four of its last six games by 18 or more, it’s playing lights out, Houston can’t do anything right, and …
You’re up 17.5-0 walking into AT&T Stadium on Sunday afternoon at noon local time. If it doesn’t work and the Texans get destroyed, it’s not your fault.
You did things the right way. Lose, and you tip your cap and move on. It’s still the NFL and 17.5 is a ton no matter what.
NEXT: NFL Pick Against the Spread No. 4: New York Jets at Buffalo
4. New York Jets at Buffalo
POINT TOTAL 43.5
PICK Under
I liked the over in this all week.
The 20-17 Buffalo win in Week 9 was on the road, the offense has stopped with the turnovers and is killing it out the ground, and this might be one of those statement moments this team likes to make.
Anytime you have a team that can take care of most of the point total on its own, you go with the over. That’s not to say the Bills will put up 40ish on the board, but it could hang 30.
Three of the last four Bill games have blown past 44, Mike White has given the Jets a real, live passing game, and ….
It’s Buffalo, New York in mid-December. Always check the weather forecast when it comes to point totals.
Related
NFL Schedule, Predictions, Lines, How To Watch: Week 14
On Sunday it’s supposed to rain in the morning and turn into snow later with a fun mixture of wind, freezing temperatures, and all that snain – the brutal mixture of snow and rain that needs to be experienced at least once in a football fan’s life – should turn this ugly.
The Jet passing game won’t stop, but it won’t be smooth. The defense should keep this from getting out of hand in the conditions, Buffalo will run enough to push through, and this might get really sloppy really fast.
Not buying that? Let’s try another before going back into the ATS side …
NEXT: NFL Pick Against The Spread No. 3 Baltimore at Pittsburgh
3. Baltimore at Pittsburgh
POINT TOTAL 36.5
PICK Under
It’s not like the Buffalo weather problem, but start with expected rain during the game and go from there.
Pittsburgh-Cincinnati got to well over a 37 point total in the loss to Steeler loss few weeks ago, but Joe Burrow isn’t showing up for the Ravens this week.
Philadelphia hung 35 on the board in the win over the Steelers in Week 8, but Jalen Hurts and that receiving corps won’t be on the other side.
Cincinnati and Pittsburgh got to over 43 in their two games, Buffalo put up 38 – but didn’t get to the over in a 38-3 blowout – and Philadelphia and Cleveland were the only other two teams to score 20 or more on the Steeler defense.
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NFL Expert Picks Predictions Odds Week 14
Baltimore? It can score when Lamar Jackson is rolling, but he’s not playing this week, the offense still doesn’t have any wide receivers, and the defense is more than strong enough to keep down the Pittsburgh offense to 20 points or fewer.
Baltimore is struggling to to score with 13 against Carolina and ten against Denver in the last three weeks. Both teams will have a hard time getting to 20.
NEXT: NFL Pick Against The Spread No. 2 Tennessee at Jacksonville
LINE Tennessee -3.5
ATS PICK Tennessee
Let’s not make this any more complicated than it has to be.
Tennessee doesn’t lose to bad teams, and all eight of Jacksonville’s losses were by four or more.
Tennessee lost to Philadelphia. It lost to Kansas City in overtime. It lost to the Giants and Bills and Bengals.
And the wins? Six of the seven were by four or more except for the 24-22 fight with Las Vegas.
It’ll get it done against a Jacksonville run defense that’s struggling a wee bit. It’s been okay all year, but over the last three games it got hammered by Kansas City, Baltimore, and Detroit for 417 total yards.
By the way, Derrick Henry vs Jacksonville for his career? Over 100 yards per game and 15 scores in 11 meetings.
Trevor Lawrence is hurting with a toe injury. Whatever, it’s December in the NFL – everyone has a (insert body part here) injury – but it should be a wee bit of a factor. If he’s not amazing, just forget it – Jacksonville isn’t running on the Titans, and …
Again, all eight Jaguar losses by four or more, and only one by less than six. Don’t mess with it.
NEXT: NFL Pick Against The Spread No. 1 Tampa Bay at San Francisco
1. Tampa Bay at San Francisco
LINE San Francisco -3.5
ATS PICK San Francisco
I did it. I got through this whole thing without dealing with the Vikings being the underdog against Detroit. That seems too obvious, Detroit isn’t that good, and no, I didn’t want a part of any of it. It felt too trapy.
Forget the glass being half full/half empty way of looking at things. I look at Tampa Bay as the one that played those first 57 minutes against New Orleans and not the last three in the 17-16 miracle win.
Brady is playing fine. It’s not enough. It’s the worst rushing team in the NFL, and things aren’t going to get any better against the league’s best run defense.
No, I’m not believing that it’s Brock Montana under center for the 49ers, but the offense should get just enough out of the passing game to be fine.
Brock Purdy doesn’t have to do much other than not screw up. The defense will take care of the rest.
Tampa Bay’s defense will keep this from getting out of hand, but it doesn’t force enough turnovers to matter. Purdy can be functional, his ground game should be able to hit 120 yards, and to keep hammering this home, it’s about the defense doing its thing at home.
San Francisco has one home loss to Kansas City. There was a 22-16 win over the Chargers, and the rest have been blowouts.
Enough stalling. San Francisco is good, Tampa Bay isn’t, and all eight 49er wins have been by six or more.
Expert Picks
Bowls Dec 16-19: College Week 14: NFL
– Week 14 NFL Schedule, Predictions
