4-Down Territory: What should the four teams with two first-round picks do with them?
In this week’s “4-Down Territory,” Kyle Madson of Niners Wire and Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire put on their general manager hats for the Houston Texans, the Seattle Seahawks, the Detroit Lions, and the Philadelphia Eagles — the four teams currently with two first-round picks in the 2023 NFL draft.
00:00 – Intro
01:35 – How do you think the Houston Texans should spend their assets?
06:32 – How should the Seattle Seahawks spend the kind of draft capital?
13:51 – What would be the best course of action for the Detroit Lions?
22:51 – How should the Philadelphia Eagles use these picks to set its course for another Super Bowl?
Doug often refers to his latest mock draft in this video. You can find that link below…
…and you can watch this week’s “4-Down Territory” right here:
How should the Houston Texans handle picks No. 2 and No. 12?
(Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports)
We’ll start with the Houston Texans, who have the second overall pick instead of the first overall pick because of their weird commitment to victory late in the season, and the 12th overall pick as part of the Deshaun Watson trade. How do you think the Texans should spend their assets?
Doug: The first thing the Texans need to do is to avail themselves of the best quarterback available. I think C.J. Stroud goes first overall to the Panthers, who traded up with the Bears for that top pick, and the Texans get Bryce Young. Young is far from a consolation prize – he has all the attributes you want in a franchise quarterback, and I don’t think his size is as much a problem as some might.
Then, you go get Young the best receiver possible with that 12th pick. Houston also has the 33rd, 65th, and 73rd picks in this draft, so I wouldn’t be opposed to them moving up to get that receiver if there’s one they really love. I like Ohio State’s Jaxson Smith-Njigba best in this draft class, and I have him going 10th overall to the Eagles in my latest mock draft, and I have Houston taking TCU’s Quentin Johnston 12th overall. If there’s one thing Young struggles with at times, it’s throwing deep over the middle, so let’s give him a huge target with massive after-catch potential.
Kyle: Yeah, they’re a QB at No. 2 team for sure and Young is the player I’m going with as well. He’s a culture-changer, I think and his ability to create outside of his first read should make him a quickly impactful player for the Texans. Guys like Will Levis and Anthony Richardson have the crazy tools, but man, Young is definitely gonna be a dude in the NFL.
At 12 I feel less strongly about the need for a receiver. At the rate WRs develop and produce in the NFL now, I think you can afford to just take the best available player here regardless of position. Maybe Georgia DL Jalen Carter or Christian Gonzalez the CB from Oregon slide. Maybe it’s CB Devon Witherspoon from Illinois or Georgia DE Nolan Smith. I’m not super picky here for the Texans. They need help at every level on both sides of the ball. I totally understand the need to get Young some help, but that’s something I think they can accomplish with their glut of picks on Day 2.
How should the Seattle Seahawks handle picks No. 5 and No. 20?
(Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
Now onto the Seattle Seahawks, who have a fifth-overall pick they certainly never expected as part of the Russell Wilson trade, and their own 20th overall pick. How should Pete Carroll and John Schneider spend the kind of draft capital they haven’t had since their first year together in 2020, when they bagged Russell Okung and Earl Thomas with the sixth and 14th overall picks?
Doug: Defense, defense, defense. I can see the logic in Seattle taking a receiver to work with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but they have a boatload of picks in this draft because of the Wilson trade, and it’s a very deep receiver class, so they can get that done later. Jalen Carter will probably be there at five, and the Seahawks could absolutely use him along their defensive line, but I asked both Carroll and Schneider at the combine why their 2022 draft was so much better than the 5-6 classes before, and they both responded with the importance of getting guys who had no issues getting onto the field right away with the right mentality as opposed to betting on pure talent and not doing due diligence with the off-field stuff. So, I’m not sure they want to take that risk, even though Carter is the best overall player in this class based on his tape.
In my latest mock, I have Seattle taking Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez with the fifth pick, and Pitt defensive lineman Calijah Kancey with the 20th. Both players have reams of ridiculous tape, and both blew up their combine drills, proving once again that there aren’t any issues above the neck. They are both plug-and-play players, and both could help set Seattle back on a Legion of Boom path.
Kyle: Two things here.
ONE: Shoutout to the Seahawks for not needing offensive line help in the first round.
TWO: They may not take a running back with either pick. I will not allow it. I don’t care if Bijan Robinson is there at 20. Someone take away Pete Carroll’s controller if he tries doing this.
But yeah, it’s hard to argue with a defense-heavy look here. Gonzalez would pair really nicely with Tariq Woolen, and I think Pete Carroll would have some fun utilizing Kancey’s athleticism. Myles Murphy from Clemson is another player I could see Carroll really liking. He’s not an edge rusher in the traditional sense, but I think he’s gonna be a player who finds a home as an edge setter on base downs and an interior pass rusher in sub packages.
HOWEVER, if something weird happens and Bryce Young falls to No. 5 – that has to be the pick unless a team is dying to move up for him in which case trade back and go to town. I think Young is the only offensive player that makes real sense for Seattle. Maybe if Smith-Njigba gets to 20 then it’s just a matter of taking the best player available, but I’d be pretty surprised if the Seahawks aren’t leaving Day 1 with a pair of defenders.
How should the Detroit Lions handle picks No. 6 and No. 18?
(Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)
The Detroit Lions have the sixth overall pick as part of the Matthew Stafford – again, they probably didn’t expect a pick this high – and their 18th overall pick. What would be the best course of action for general manager Brad Holmes and head coach Dan Campbell?
Doug: Here’s one place I think would be a great fit for Jalen Carter. I would also point to another team, and I’ll make that case in a minute. But Carter will need a strong environment around him, and starting with Campbell and going through a list of assistant coaches with a ton of NFL playing experience, that group will get respect. The Lions have enough on their defensive line where Carter won’t be asked to do everything, but he’ll be an absolute net gain every time he steps on the field. I think that’s how you get the most out of Carter’s phenomenal talent while sidestepping the ancillary issues. That’s why I have him going sixth in my latest mock.
With the 18th pick, I have Detroit making a move that will absolutely get me drummed out of the analytics community – I think they should select Texas running back Bijan Robinson, the best prospect at his position since Saquon Barkley. Robinson can do everything on the field, and he can be the epicenter of Detroit’s offense while the Lions continue to mine the most possible out of Jared Goff, which is still a low-ceiling proposition. I could see them going quarterback or cornerback if things set the right way, but that’s how I have it going now.
Kyle: The Lions are fascinating. I’m in the ‘Detroit should draft a QB’ camp, and their really strong free agency where they bolstered their secondary changes how I think they should attack the draft. Now I think they have a little more leeway if they want to snag a QB at either spot. Jalen Carter is a great idea here though. If they like Tyree Wilson, the DE from Texas Tech I think it makes sense here even if it’s a little bit of a reach. Best defensive lineman on the board tracks here though.
18 is where things get interesting. If Anthony Richardson specifically falls that far I think they have to go that route. It’d be a perfect landing spot for him and Detroit can afford to take this swing thanks to their adds in free agency. However, Mel Kiper has them going with Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer here. Dalton Kincaid from Utah is another fun TE option. I think a safety blanket for Jared Goff after trading TJ Hockenson last year would only help their already-ascending offense.
Finally, how should the Philadelphia Eagles handle picks No. 10 and No. 30?
(Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
Finally, we have the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles, their 10th overall pick from the Saints, and their 30th overall pick. How should Howie Roseman’s team use these picks to set its course for another Super Bowl?
Doug: Now, if the Eagles wanted to trade up in the top 10, or hope that Jalen Carter might slide to 10, this is another potentially great environment. New defensive coordinator Sean Desai is a veteran and highly-respected coach, and this move would reunite Carter with Georgia teammates Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean. But for now as I said, I have Philly taking Jaxson Smith-Njigba 10th overall. Good luck defending him, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert when you have to keep at least one eye on the Eagles’ quarterback-centric run game. No fun at all.
I also have the Eagles taking a Georgia defender with their 30th pick, and that’s edge-rusher Nolan Smith, who completely dominated the combine after losing a lot of his 2022 season to injury. When healthy, Smith isn’t the most powerful disruptor at 6-foot-2 and 238 pounds, but he’s stronger than you may think, and the Eagles will likely continue to lean on a lot of five-man fronts. If you are an opposing offensive tackle, the last thing you want to see is Smith and Haason Reddick coming at you from either side of a bear front with no worries about the inside shoulder. Again, no fun at all.
Kyle: How do teams keep letting Howie Roseman get away with this?! Putting JSN in Philly would be a war crime and I personally will not allow it. It would certainly track though. He’s awesome and I think NFL teams will value him relatively highly. Honestly though I wouldn’t be surprised if Smith is their pick at 10. His torn pec in November is apparently behind him and if teams believe he’s ready to go for training camp I think he’ll be a top 10 or 15 pick. He’s a monster off the edge and a truly special athlete for his size. Putting him on an already-dominant Philly DL would be as unfair as putting JSN in their receiving corps.
At 30 I think if a TE like Dalton Kincaid or Luke Musgrave falls they’d make a ton of sense for the Eagles. Going 2 TEs with one of those guys and Dallas Goedert would be just as nightmarish as Smith-Njigba from a scheme and personnel grouping versatility standpoint. 12 personnel with Goedert and Kincaid or Musgrave would give new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson a ton of options to bend defenses into impossible spots.
