(New throughout, updates prices, market activity and comments) March 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 9% on Friday to a five-week high, as the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants soared to a record high and on new two-week forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand. Cold weather could crimp supply too. Gas producers "may face growing freeze-off risks in the Bakken (North Dakota) and Rockies," analysts at energy consulting firm EBW Analytics said in a note. The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants was on track to hit a daily record high on Friday as Freeport LNG's facility in Texas keeps using more fuel after exiting an eight-month outage in February. The plant shut after a fire in June 2022. Front-month gas futures for April delivery rose 24.4 cents, or 8.8%, to settle at $3.009 per million British thermal units, their highest close since Jan. 27. For the week, the front-month was up about 23%, its biggest weekly gain since August 2020. Last week, the contract rose about 8%. Freeport LNG's export plant was on track to pull in about 1.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas on Friday, up from 1.2 bcfd on Thursday, according to data provider Refinitiv, a sign the company likely had started the second of three liquefaction trains to turn gas into LNG. When operating at full power, Freeport LNG, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, can turn about 2.1 bcfd of gas into LNG for export. Freeport LNG said on Feb. 21 that it could consume about 2.0 bcfd of feedgas "over the next several weeks." Some analysts have said Freeport LNG will likely not return to full capacity until the end of April. Federal regulators have approved the restart of two of Freeport LNG's liquefaction trains (Trains 2 and 3). On Monday, Freeport LNG sought permission to restart the third (Train 1). Total gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 13.4 bcfd so far in March from 12.8 bcfd in February. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March 2022 before the Freeport LNG facility shut. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 98.4 bcfd so far in March from 98.2 bcfd in February. The monthly record was 99.9 bcfd in November 2022. Analysts said production declined earlier this year due in part to drops in gas prices of 40% in January and 35% in December that caused several energy firms to reduce the number of rigs drilling for gas. In addition, extreme cold in early February and late December cut gas output by freezing oil and gas wells in several producing basins. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through March 18 after some warmer-than-normal days from March 3-6. Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would ease from 120.9 bcfd this week to 119.1 bcfd next week, then jump to 127.4 bcfd in two weeks. Milder winter weather has prompted utilities to leave gas in storage. Gas stockpiles were about 19% above their five-year average (2018-2022) in the week ended Feb. 24, expected to end up about 22% above normal during the week ended March 3, according to federal data and analysts' estimates. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Mar 3 Feb 24 Mar 3 average (Forecast) (Actual) Mar 3 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -75 -81 -126 -101 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,039 2,114 1,537 1,671 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 22.0% 19.3% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2018-2022) Henry Hub 2.82 2.77 4.98 6.54 3.60 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 14.08 14.75 41.81 40.50 14.39 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 14.59 14.58 36.96 34.11 14.31 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 357 344 347 330 313 U.S. GFS CDDs 10 12 10 11 10 U.S. GFS TDDs 367 356 357 341 323 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 98.1 98.6 98.6 93.8 89.4 U.S. Imports from Canada 7.8 8.4 8.6 9.6 8.6 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 105.9 107.0 107.1 103.5 99.1 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.0 U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.8 5.2 U.S. LNG Exports 13.0 12.8 13.8 12.5 7.4 U.S. Commercial 14.1 13.8 13.6 14.5 12.4 U.S. Residential 22.8 22.5 21.9 23.1 19.6 U.S. Power Plant 30.3 31.8 29.8 27.5 25.7 U.S. Industrial 24.1 23.8 24.0 24.4 23.6 U.S. Plant Fuel 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.9 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 98.8 99.6 96.8 97.1 88.9 Total U.S. Demand 119.7 120.9 119.1 118.8 104.5 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Mar 3 Feb 24 Feb 17 Feb 10 Feb 3 Wind 13 15 15 15 10 Solar 3 3 3 3 2 Hydro 7 7 7 6 7 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 40 39 37 36 39 Coal 15 14 15 17 21 Nuclear 20 20 21 21 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.67 2.59 Transco Z6 New York 2.64 2.44 PG&E Citygate 12.03 12.21 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 2.44 2.30 Chicago Citygate 2.61 2.52 Algonquin Citygate 4.08 3.30 SoCal Citygate 11.32 11.50 Waha Hub 2.41 2.27 AECO 2.28 2.21 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 47.00 38.50 PJM West 33.00 34.00 Ercot North 25.75 23.00 Mid C 124.00 98.00 Palo Verde 80.50 78.50 SP-5 89.75 87.50 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao and David Gregorio)