UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas futures fell 4% on forecasts for less demand

(Adds latest prices) Feb 15 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 4% on Wednesday on forecasts for lower demand than previously expected over the next two weeks. The price decline came despite forecasts for colder weather in late February, an increase in the amount of gas going to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants to an eight-month high, and a decline in gas output so far this month. Front-month gas futures for March delivery fell 9.6 cents, or 3.7%, to settle at $2.471 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its highest level since Feb. 7. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants was on track to reach 13.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Wednesday, the highest since May 2022, due to a rapid increase in flows to Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas as the facility prepares to exit an eight-month outage caused by a fire in June 2022. Freeport LNG, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, was on track to pull in 0.5 bcfd of gas from pipelines for a third day in a row on Wednesday, according to data provider Refinitiv. When operating at full power, Freeport LNG can turn about 2.1 bcfd of gas into LNG for export. Earlier this week, Freeport LNG asked federal regulators for permission to put the first phase of its restart plan into commercial operation. Phase 1 includes the full operation of the plant's three liquefaction trains, which turn gas into LNG, two storage tanks and one LNG loading dock. Energy regulators and analysts, however, have said they do not expect Freeport LNG to return to full commercial operation until mid-March or later. A couple of Freeport LNG's customers - Japan's JERA and Osaka Gas - have said they do not expect to get LNG from the plant until after March. Federal regulators approved the restart of Freeport LNG liquefaction Train 3, but have not authorized the facility to commence liquefaction operations. Freeport LNG still needs permission from regulators to place new LNG in the tanks and transfer it to ships. The LNG that Freeport LNG has loaded on ships over the past several days is old LNG that was already in the tanks. LNG Rosenrot, the third vessel to pick up LNG from the plant this week, has already left the plant, according to Refinitiv ship tracking data. U.S. GAS OUTPUT Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from 98.3 bcfd in January to 97.0 bcfd so far in February, after extreme cold earlier in February froze oil and gas wells in several producing basins. That compared with a monthly record of 99.8 bcfd in November 2022. Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly near normal through March 2 except for several cold days around Feb. 17-18 and Feb. 23-March 1. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 117.6 bcfd this week to 122.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts, however, were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday. With the amount of gas flowing to Freeport LNG rising, the average amount of feedgas going to all seven big U.S. LNG export plants climbed to 12.8 bcfd so far in February, up from 12.3 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March 2022 before Freeport LNG shut. The seven big U.S. export plants, including Freeport LNG, can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Feb Feb 3 Feb 10 average 10(Forecast (Actual) Feb 10 ) U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -109 -217 -195 -166 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,257 2,366 1,938 2,083 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 8.4% 5.2% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2018-2022) Henry Hub 2.56 2.57 4.46 6.54 3.60 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 16.89 16.58 26.94 40.5 14.39 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 17.89 17.90 25.82 34.11 14.31 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 372 367 417 386 376 U.S. GFS CDDs 9 7 9 7 6 U.S. GFS TDDs 381 374 416 393 382 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 96.9 98.1 98.3 94.6 87.7 U.S. Imports from Canada 8.4 7.9 8.5 9.8 9.1 U.S. LNG Imports 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 Total U.S. Supply 105.4 106.0 106.7 104.5 97 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.8 3.1 3.2 2.9 2.7 U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.7 5.2 U.S. LNG Exports 12.6 13.1 12.5 13.0 6.6 U.S. Commercial 16.0 13.7 15.0 16.9 16.4 U.S. Residential 26.5 22.2 24.6 27.6 27.7 U.S. Power Plant 30.1 28.6 29.5 26.5 28.1 U.S. Industrial 24.7 24.2 24.6 25.3 25.2 U.S. Plant Fuel 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.6 3.1 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 104.9 96.2 101.4 103.9 105.4 Total U.S. Demand 125.4 117.6 122.3 125.5 119.9 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Feb 17 Feb 10 Feb 3 Jan 27 Jan 20 Wind 13 15 10 11 13 Solar 3 3 2 2 2 Hydro 7 6 7 7 7 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 39 36 39 38 36 Coal 15 17 21 19 18 Nuclear 22 21 19 21 21 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.42 2.42 Transco Z6 New York 1.92 2.05 PG&E Citygate 5.53 6.00 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.78 1.94 Chicago Citygate 2.36 2.29 Algonquin Citygate 2.06 2.60 SoCal Citygate 5.17 6.25 Waha Hub 2.00 1.65 AECO 2.03 1.96 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 34.25 32.25 PJM West 25.00 24.00 Ercot North 17.75 14.50 Mid C 76.67 75.50 Palo Verde 45.25 48.25 SP-5 51.50 52.50 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Holmes and Leslie Adler)