The world is rapidly accelerating toward climate catastrophe, our financial institutions have their foot on the gas and pinning our hopes on Chinese leadership to desperately wrench the steering wheel away from the guardrail looks increasingly foolish.
But, hey! At least a growing percentage of Americans recognize that the federal government should do more about climate change.
Those are just a few findings contained in seven reports published in the past week examining the climate emergency ahead of next week’s United Nations summit in Madrid.
The 25th Conference of the Parties was intended to be a forum for countries to up the ante from the 2015 Paris Agreement. They were supposed to come with new, more ambitious pledges to meet the targets and build on the momentum of the four years since the agreement was reached. Instead, the reports out since Nov. 20 illustrate the extent to which the world’s most powerful institutions are still engaged in a game of lethal procrastination that threatens to speed up global ecological collapse and sow chaos throughout human civilization in the decades to come.
Here’s a quick breakdown of what the reports found:
1. Global temperatures are on pace to rise as much as 3.2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century ― more than double what scientists project to be a safe range that remotely resembles our world today.
That came from the United Nations’ latest grim assessment of the so-called emissions gap between the amount of planet-heating gases countries agreed to cut and where the current projections are headed. The Paris Agreement aimed to cap average temperatures at 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels; a U.N. report last year determined that the pact’s more ambitious goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming would likely cost hundreds of millions of lives and about $54 trillion in today’s dollars. Global temperatures are already a little over 1 degree Celsius compared with the period before the advent of industrial fossil-fuel use.
Top greenhouse gas emitters by country. (Photo: United Nations)
To keep warming within 1.5 degrees (about 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), the world will need to cut emission 7.6% every year from 2020 to 2030, the report published Monday found.
“The summary findings are bleak,” the assessment stated.
2. The top 10 fossil-fuel-producing countries are on track to extract 120% more oil, gas and coal than would be consistent with 1.5 degrees of warming.
A chart from the report shows the so-called production gap between the emissions cuts needed to keep global warming in a safe range and the amount of fossil fuel projected to be drilled. (Photo: SEI)
There isn’t just an emissions gap. There’s a production gap, too. That’s what this first-of-its-kind analysis by scientists at six organizations, including the United Nations Environment Programme, found last week. Projections to extract new fossil fuel reserves in China, the United States, Russia, India, Australia, Indonesia, Canada, Germany, Norway and the United Kingdom exceed the limits to keep warming within 2 degrees Celsius by 50%. That figure surges to 120% when modeled for 1.5 degrees Celsius.
3. The world’s biggest asset managers remain heavily invested in climate-polluting industries ― and do little if anything to convince those companies to change.
That’s the finding of a sweeping survey by the British think tank InfluenceMap of the 15 largest asset managers that control a combined $37 trillion. Only three big firms ― UBS Asset Management, Allianz and Legal & General ― “strongly and consistently engage with the companies they invest in to align their business models with Paris targets.” The report found $8.2 trillion invested in four top-polluting industries: oil and gas, coal mining, automobiles and electric power.
A chart from InfluenceMap shows which of 15 biggest asset managers control investments aligned with the Paris Agreement's less ambitious 2-degrees Celsius goal. (Photo: InfluenceMap)
“Forceful engagement with the companies in these sectors to hasten their transition to low carbon technologies must occur if the finance sector wishes to align its portfolios with climate goals,” the report stated. “The majority of companies in these sectors are very far from aligning their business models to meet the goals of Paris.”
4. The insurance industry looks stunningly unprepared for the “extremely high” risks of climate change.
A third of the regulators surveyed did not know how prepared insurers were to respond to potential effects of climate change on their financial stability. (Photo: Deloitte)
So say insurance regulators in a survey released Monday by the professional services giant Deloitte. As the costs of extreme weather have soared over the past decade, with the number of disasters causing $1 billion or more spiking dramatically since 2010, the 27 regulators surveyed from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners painted a picture of an industry stumbling largely in the dark. One-third of regulators said they did not know how well insurers are prepared to deal with the effects of climate-linked financial instability. Among those who said they were prepared, no more than four respondents in the weighted survey said insurers were “largely or fully prepared.”
Similarly, one-third of regulators said they did not know whether current insurer risk models were up to the task of capturing and testing climate-related risks. Among those who knew, only two said the models were “very good” and none rated them as excellent.
5. New investments in wind, solar and other renewable energy projects dropped sharply in the developing world last year. Coal, meanwhile, hit a record high.
A Bloomberg New Energy Finance chart shows investments in new solar, wind and other non-hydroelectric power projects dropping from 2017 to 2018. (Photo: Bloomberg New Energy Finance)
From 2017 to 2018, investments in new clean-energy infrastructure in 104 emerging markets fell from $169 billion to $133 billion, according to a report published Monday by the research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance. China ― the world’s No. 1 emitter of greenhouse gases ― led the decline, investing $86 billion in renewable energy projects in 2018 compared with $122 billion in 2017.
Coal surged. The volume of coal-fired power generated and consumed in developing countries climbed to 6,900 terawatt-hours in 2018, up from 6,400 in 2017.
6. China is building more new coal plants than exist in all of the European Union.
From January 2018 to June 2019, countries outside of China decreased their total coal power capacity by 8.1 gigawatts, while China increased its coal capacity by 42.9 gigawatts. (Photo: Global Energy Monitor)
In 2017, China earned worldwide acclaim for canceling plans to build 103 new coal plants. It was a convenient political narrative that drew a stark contrast with the United States, where newly inaugurated President Donald Trump was preparing to withdraw the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas emitter from the Paris climate pact.
But a Global Energy Monitor report published Nov. 20 found that China has close to 147.7 gigawatts of coal power capacity under construction or likely to be resumed after being suspended. That nearly amounts to the European Union’s entire 150 gigawatts of coal capacity.
7. The vast majority of Americans want the federal government to do more to curb climate change and protect the environment.
New polling from Pew Research Center found majorities of U.S. adults think the federal government is doing too little to curb climate change. (Photo: Pew Research Center)
The numbers released Monday by the Pew Research Center illustrate why the issues are taking on such a big role in this election cycle. At 67%, the vast majority of American adults said “the federal government is doing too little to reduce the effects of global climate change.” Another 67% said the same of protecting air quality, and 68% said officials in Washington should do more to “protect water quality of lakes, rivers, and streams.”
Yet the climate question broke down along partisan lines. Among Democrats and voters who lean Democratic, 90% said the federal government needed to do more to curb the climate crisis. Among Republicans and those who lean Republican, that figure fell to 39%.
According to the USDA, bee populations are dropping nationwide. Wetter winters and rainy summers make it harder for bees to get out and about to collect, leaving them to starve or become malnourished and more prone to other diseases. This doesn't just mean a decline in honey. We rely on bees to pollinate crops. When bees disappear, many food crops could also die off.
Spring Break, Wohoo!
As global temperatures rise this century, sea levels are also expected to increase. South Florida may be hit particularly hard. If greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced, global sea levels could rise over three feet by 2100, with a six foot rise possible. The U.S. Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming notes:
This threatens to submerge Florida's coastal communities and economies since roughly 9 percent of the state is within 5 feet of the existing sea level. Rising sea level also threatens the beaches, wetlands, and mangrove forests that surround the state.
University of Florida professor Jack Putz said in 2008, "People have a hard time accepting that this is happening here," reported the Tampa Bay Times. Seeing dead palm trees and other impacts "brings a global problem right into our own back yard," he added. Click here to see a map showing what different levels of sea level rise would look like for Florida and other states.
Cute Baby Polar Bear Videos
A November 2011 study found that polar bear litters are getting smaller as climate change causes sea ice decline. According to World Wildlife Fund, the study "found that if spring sea ice break-up occurs one month earlier than usual, 40-73 percent of pregnant females could fail to bring cubs to term." The National Snow and Ice Data Center found that in 2010, Arctic sea ice was at its lowest January level in 30 years. With decreased sea ice, polar bears may have greater trouble finding food sources. This could lead to cannibalism, which has already been observed by photographers. Environmental photojournalist Jenny Ross told BBC News in 2011, "There are increasing numbers of observations of it occurring, particularly on land where polar bears are trapped ashore, completely food-deprived for extended periods of time due to the loss of sea ice as a result of climate change."
PB and Js
Thanks to a failing peanut crop due to last summer's scorching hot weather, there was a shortage of peanuts in supply at the end of 2011. If temperatures continue to rise, a jump in peanut butter prices is just the prelude to what could be in store for the beloved spread.
Chocolate Cravings
A report released by the International Center For Tropical Agriculture warns chocolate could become a luxury item if farmers don't adapt to rising temperatures in Ghana and the Ivory Coast, where a majority of the world's cocoa is grown. The October 2011 report, funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, "calls for increased research into heat and drought resistant crops, and to help transition cocoa farming to new regions that will be suitable for production in the future," reported ThinkProgress.
'Friday Night Lights' & 'Varsity Blues'
As average temperatures rise over the course of this century, states in the Southern U.S. are expected to see a greater number of days with temperatures over 90 degrees Fahrenheit each year. Hotter temperatures will mean that football players in the South will face a greater risk of hyperthermia, explains GE's TXCHNOLOGIST blog. ThinkProgress suggests, "Indeed, it is the conservative southern U.S., especially the South central and South east, who have led the way in blocking serious climate action, as it were, making yesterday's worst-case scenario into today's likely outcome."
Not Sneezing
Bad news for allergy sufferers -- climate change, and specifically warmer temperatures, may bring more pollen and ragweed, according to a 2011 study from the Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York. Along with allergies, a changing climate may be tied to more infectious diseases. According to one study, climate change could affect wild bird migratory patterns, increasing the chances for human flu pandemics. Illnesses like Lyme disease could also become more prominent.
With higher temperatures expected in northern latitudes in coming decades, the U.K. has begun a program to develop strawberries that will survive in higher temperatures with less water. Since chocolate also may be threatened, could sexy chocolate-covered strawberries, a Valentine's Day staple, be endangered? According to The Telegraph, Dr. David Simpson, a scientist with England's East Malling Research, said last year, "Consumer demand for fresh strawberries in the UK has been growing year on year since the early 1990s. The British growers have done a great job of increasing their productivity to satisfy this demand between April and October. The future will be challenging due to the impacts of climate change and the withdrawal of many pesticides but the breeding programme at EMR is using the latest scientific approaches to develop a range of varieties that will meet the needs of our growers for the future."
Coffeehouse Snobs
Coffee lovers may want to get that caffeine fix before the treasured drink becomes a rare export. Starbucks raised the issue last year when the company's director of sustainability told The Guardian that climate change is threatening the supply chain for the Arabica coffee bean. Starbucks Sustainability Director Jim Hanna told the paper, "What we are really seeing as a company as we look 10, 20, 30 years down the road - if conditions continue as they are - is a potentially significant risk to our supply chain, which is the Arabica coffee bean."
Rudolph (And Donner And Blitzen)
Reindeer, also known as "caribou" in North America, could face a difficult future in a warmer climate. According to U.S. News & World Report, "Russell Graham, associate professor of geosciences and director of the Earth and Mineral Sciences Museum at Penn State University, says global warming will most harm the animals adapted to the coldest environments, primarily those accustomed to life in the Arctic." A 2008 study found that caribou in West Greenland are "now arriving after peak foraging time, fewer calves are being born and more calves are dying," reported ScienceNews.
According to a 2002 study by the Natural Resources Defense Council and Defenders of Wildlife, a warming planet does not bode well for species that thrive in cold streams. The study found that "global warming is likely to spur the disappearance of trout and salmon from as much as 18 to 38 percent of their current habitat by the year 2090." A 2011 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academies of Science produced "models [which] forecast significant declines in trout habitat across the interior western United States in the 21st century," reported The New York Times. The study claims, "The decline will have significant socioeconomic consequences as recreational trout fisheries are valued in the hundreds of millions of dollars in the United States alone."
NYC's Waterfront Real Estate
According to a 2012 report from New Jersey-based nonprofit Climate Central, thousands of New York City residents may be at risk for severe coastal flooding as a result of climate change. Climate Central explains, "the NY metro area hosts the nation's highest-density populations vulnerable to sea level rise." They argue, "the funnel shape of New York Harbor has the potential to magnify storm surges already supplemented by sea level rise, threatening widespread areas of New York City."
The Best Part Of July 4th
With droughts and wildfires hitting many parts of the U.S., municipalities from Colorado to Tennessee canceled July 4th public fireworks displays or banned personal fireworks this year, citing the fire hazards they posed. In June, a study published in the journal Ecosphere found that almost all of North America will see more wildfires by 2100, reported Reuters. The study's lead author, Max Moritz, said, "In the long run, we found what most fear - increasing fire activity across large areas of the planet."
The Non-.com Amazon
Along with deforestation, climate change also poses a serious threat to South America's Amazon rainforest. A 2009 study from the U.K. Met Office found that a global temperature rise of four degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels would cause 85 percent of the Amazon to die off in the next 100 years. Even a two degree Celsius rise would kill 20 to 40 percent of the rainforest, reported the Guardian. In May, The Club of Rome think tank predicted a global average temperatures rise of "2 degrees Celsius by 2052 and a 2.8 degree rise by 2080," reported Reuters. Jorgen Randers, author of the club's report, said, "It is unlikely that governments will pass necessary regulation to force the markets to allocate more money into climate-friendly solutions, and (we) must not assume that markets will work for the benefit of humankind." He added, "We are emitting twice as much greenhouse gases every year as are absorbed by the world's forests and oceans. This overshoot will worsen and will peak in 2030."
Island Getaways
As global sea levels rise during the 21st century, low-lying island nations like the Maldives could see their very existence threatened. With a three to six foot sea level rise predicted by 2100, nations like the Maldives could become uninhabitable, explained The New York Times. Maldives' former president, Mohamed Nasheed, has been a tireless campaigner for the urgent need for countries to take action against climate change, arguing "You can't pick and choose on science."
Ski Bums
Although seasonal fluctuations occur and El Nino/La Nina weather patterns affect snowfall, global temperature rise may impact conditions for skiers and boarders. "The long-term trend is less snow and earlier snowmelt. This means more frustration for snow sport enthusiasts and a negative impact on the snow sports industry," writes the Natural Resources Defense Council's Theo Spencer. In May, a snow-less ski race was held in Aspen, Colorado to "highlight the effect climate change has on the outdoor recreation industry," reported the Associated Press.
Thanksgiving Dinner Food Comas
A 2010 paper in the journal Food Research International found that climate change may one day affect the cost and quality of traditional Thanksgiving dishes, reported Discovery News. Future temperature rises could impact the quality of turkey meat. Additionally, foods like "pumpkins, sweet potatoes, potatoes, grains [and] green beans ... will be sensitive to water shortages should they arise," study author Neville Gregory told Discovery News. In fact, common Thanksgiving foods were impacted by weather events in 2011, with shortages and price spikes hitting over the holidays.
A 2011 report from the U.K.'s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs found that climate change could affect certain infrastructure, like wireless internet. The Guardian reports, "higher temperatures can reduce the range of wireless communications, rainstorms can impact the reliability of the signal, and drier summers and wetter winters may cause greater subsidence, damaging masts and underground cables," according to secretary of state for the environment. The Guardian notes, "The government acknowledges that the impact of climate change on telecommunications is not well understood, but the report raises a series of potential risks."
The Great Smoky Mountains' Smoke
The Great Smoky Mountains have the most annual rainfall in the southeastern U.S., which mostly falls as a light, misty rain, explains OurAmazingPlanet. A study by a team from NASA's Precipitation Measurement Missions found that "light rainfall is the dominant form of precipitation in the region, accounting for 50 to 60 percent of a year's total, governing the regional water cycle." OurAmazingPlanet notes:
The results suggest the area may be more susceptible to climate change than thought; as temperatures rise, more of the fine droplets from light rain will evaporate in the air and fail to reach the ground. Lower elevations will have to contend with not only higher temperatures, but less cloud cover.
California Beach Bums
Along the California coast, beach communities are finding that it may be impossible to stop coastal erosion as global sea levels rise. According to AP, David Revell, a senior coastal scientist at ESA PWA, acknowledged the relentless power of the sea, saying, "I like to think of it as getting out of the way gracefully." A report released in June by the Natural Resources Defense Council found that West Coast ocean levels will rise several inches in the next few decades. Sea levels along the California coast are expected to be six inches higher by 2030 and three feet higher by the end of the century. Despite the risks, another recent NRDC study found that California is one of several states with the best plans to deal with the effects of climate change.
Repeats Of The Titanic
2012 could be a record year for the extent of Arctic sea ice at its yearly summer minimum. Walt Meier, a research scientist at the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center, said that with recent satellite observations, "It definitely portends a low-ice year, whether it means it will go below 2007 (the record minimum in September), it is too early to tell," reported LiveScience. As sea ice declines in the Arctic, countries are anticipating a competition for control of shipping lanes and mineral extraction in the region. In Antarctica, research from the United States' Palmer Station on the Antarctic Peninsula has found that "87 percent of the peninsula's land-bound glaciers are in retreat," reported OurAmazingPlanet. Decreasing sea ice levels were also addressed in a recent spoof of Shell's plans to drill for oil in the Arctic this summer.
Crazy Sugar Highs
Climate change has already impacted sugarcane production in Indonesia. In late 2011, the chairman of the Indonesian Sugarcane Farmers Association said, "sugarcane production decreased by up to 30 percent in 2011 due to climate change that has occurred since 2009."
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![According to a <a href="http://www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/ntrout.asp" target="_hplink">2002 study by the Natural Resources Defense Council and Defenders of Wildlife</a>, a warming planet does not bode well for species that thrive in cold streams. The study found that "global warming is likely to spur the disappearance of trout and salmon from as much as 18 to 38 percent of their current habitat by the year 2090." A 2011 study published in the <em>Proceedings of the National Academies of Science</em> produced "models [which] forecast significant declines in trout habitat across the interior western United States in the 21st century," <a href="http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/16/trout-fishing-in-a-climate-changed-america/" target="_hplink">reported <em>The New York Times</em></a>. The study claims, "The decline will have significant socioeconomic consequences as recreational trout fisheries are valued in the hundreds of millions of dollars in the United States alone."](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/5OISdvvv4fIo6YgD_.Vb2w--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MA--/https://img.huffingtonpost.com/asset/5bb8c9223c000066000df503.jpg)
![A 2010 paper in the journal <em>Food Research International</em> found that climate change may one day affect the cost and quality of traditional Thanksgiving dishes, <a href="http://news.discovery.com/earth/thanksgiving-climate-change.html" target="_hplink">reported Discovery News</a>. Future temperature rises could impact the quality of turkey meat. Additionally, foods like "pumpkins, sweet potatoes, potatoes, grains [and] green beans ... will be sensitive to water shortages should they arise," study author Neville Gregory told Discovery News. In fact, common Thanksgiving foods were <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/21/thanksgiving-dinner-battles-weather_n_1099899.html" target="_hplink">impacted by weather events in 2011</a>, with shortages and price spikes hitting over the holidays.](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/Oi2vM6mq76vRmqVJMFWvnA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MA--/https://img.huffingtonpost.com/asset/5bb8c9272100002501c96085.jpg)
