The United States has hit a dismal new record: the highest level of new coronavirus infections since the virus exploded last March. President Trump calls this “rounding the corner.”
In the final days of the 2020 presidential campaign, Trump is at least consistent: He has denied the severity of the coronavirus pandemic since the beginning, and he continues to pretend things will be fine any day now. “It will go away,” Trump said at the final debate with Democratic candidate Joe Biden on Oct. 22. “We’re rounding the turn. We’re rounding the corner. It’s going away.”
The data tells the real story. The number of daily infections surged above 86,000 on Oct. 23, exceeding the prior high of 77,299 new cases on July 16. It’s likely the caseload will rise further as the weather cools, more people head inside and lockdown fatigue leads them to let their guard down. Seven states have hit record numbers of COVID-19 hospitalizations, with total hospitalizations up 34% since October 1, to 41,000. Despite better treatment, the COVID-19 death count in the United States is heading back toward 1,000 per day.
It’s been clear since March that the pandemic is a major economic problem, since many businesses can’t operate normally and consumers are reluctant to go out. The U.S. economy has lost 11 million jobs since February, with many temporary layoffs now becoming permanent. Congress has approved trillions in coronavirus aid and more may be coming, but everybody knows by now that the best antidote for the economy is vanquishing the virus.
Trump’s “around the corner” promise is a final dollop of false hope as voters decide whether he deserves a second term. Trump claims he’ll do a better job rebuilding the economy than Biden will, but Trump is presiding over an uncontained public health disaster that’s holding the economy hostage. He promises a vaccine soon, as if that will be a magic bullet promptly bringing everything back to normal. But under the best circumstances, it will be months or years before a vaccine beats back the virus, and we’ll need aggressive remedial measures in the meanwhile. Trump doesn’t have any.
Like most Americans, the Trump-o-meter has virus fatigue. But it knows there’s more misery to come, which is why this week’s readout is FAILING, the second-worst mark.
The economy wants to recover. Home sales are on fire and vehicles sales have bounced back, indicating Americans who have money to spend are confident spending it. One measure of business activity in October hit the highest level since 2018. CEOs feel good about an eventual recovery.
But the economy has lost 11 million jobs since February and weekly claims for jobless benefits are at least four times higher than before the crisis. Some firms are hiring or rehiring, but others are running short of cash and letting workers go. And sectors like travel and hospitality are still reeling.
During the final debate, Biden warned of a “dark winter” coming, as infections surge and more lockdowns become necessary. Ordinarily, a bleak view of the future disqualifies a candidate for national office, but Biden’s caution seems apt. Biden says he’d mount a more aggressive federal effort than Trump to tame the virus, including beefed-up testing and perhaps a national mask mandate. If nothing else, Biden’s embrace of masking and aggressive prevention measures would set a much more serious example than Trump’s dismissiveness.
The biggest problem for Trump may be that voters simply stopped believing him. Fewer than 40% of voters approve of Trump’s handling of the virus, and that has dragged down his approval rating on the economy, which is now roughly equal with Biden’s. Trump never seemed to grasp that restarting the economy requires quarantining the virus. With Biden ahead in the campaign’s final days, Trump may not be around when the country finally rounds the corner.
Rick Newman is the author of four books, including “Rebounders: How Winners Pivot from Setback to Success.” Follow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman. Confidential tip line: rickjnewman@yahoo.com. Encrypted communication available. Click here to get Rick’s stories by email.
Read more:
