Silver hits eight-year high as Reddit frenzy turns to commodities

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Silver
Silver

Silver prices leapt to an eight-year high after Reddit’s army of retail investors turned their sights on the market in a bid to wreck the profits of banks and hedge funds betting against the precious metal.

Emboldened by a successful “short squeeze” on video game seller GameStop last week, armchair investors helped push the price of silver above $30 [£22] an ounce on Monday - its highest level since 2013 - before dipping back under $29.

Traders poured into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that deal in the metal, pumping $1bn into the popular iShares Silver Trust on Friday alone - and triggering warnings that there might not be enough trucks to move silver between warehouses.

Demand even surged for silver coins and commemorative bars, with several sellers struggling to meet orders. Shares in silver miners climbed too, with Hochschild and Fresnillo closing 10pc and 8pc higher respectively in London.

Rallying cries on Reddit suggesting silver could hit $1,000 were tempered by a split as other investors argued piling into the metal could backfire and make the investors' Wall Street targets even richer. Meanwhile, experts warned the frenzy could end up saddling ordinary punters with massive losses.

Read more: Wall Street Bets
Read more: Wall Street Bets

Carlo Alberto De Casa at derivatives broker Activtrades said: “History tells us that in the majority of cases these things finish with a bloodbath. As long as the market is going up so quickly, it can do exactly the same in the opposite direction.”

Separately, trading in GameStop - whose shares skyrocketed last week after it was targeted by investors from Reddit trading chatrooms - were briefly halted after the stock plunged by a third.

Retail investors have found power in numbers through online forums such as Reddit’s Wall Street Bets, and are taking on what they see as powerful financial forces such as hedge funds seeking to make a profit when share or commodity prices fall.

The silver market has long been at the centre of conspiracy theories suggesting prices are being depressed - although data shows money managers in fact have a net long position in the metal, meaning they will overall do better if prices go up.

Reddit user RocketBoomGo appears to have played a key role in the buying frenzy, after describing silver as potentially the "biggest short squeeze in the world” in a post that attracted more than 3,000 comments.

The post continued: "Think about the gainz [sic]. If you don't care about the gains, think about the banks like JPMorgan you'd be destroying along the way."

GameStop | How the trading frenzy started
GameStop | How the trading frenzy started

In an interview, RocketBoomGo gave his first name as James and said he is a former Merrill Lynch trader who lives in Florida. The Telegraph has not been able to verify his identity.

The user said that his silver trades were motivated by money printing by central banks, which some have claimed is devaluing paper currency, as well as growing demand from industrial firms that use the meta in products. He added: "The market was primed for a run on silver."

However, several Reddit users warned that the major investors being targeted by their movement could actually benefit from rising silver prices.

For example, Citadel - a hedge fund betting against GameStop that was hammered when shares rose last week - owns large volumes of the metal and could profit as a result. One Reddit user urged day traders not to pile into the commodity, saying: "It is imperative we do not squeeze it."

JPMorgan is believed to hold short positions in silver but also to have stockpiled masses of the metal last year.

It is likely that larger investors have now acted on the turmoil started by retail investors in the silver market, meaning the way ahead is harder to predict.

European stocks targeted by retail investors as a “short squeeze” have fallen back in the past few days, although some US stocks have continued to rally.

Even after the latest fall, GameStop's shares were at $245, valuing the company at $17bn. They started the year at $17.

What is short selling?
What is short selling?

It is unclear whether regulators will step in over silver trades, after the US Securities and Exchange Commission said it was monitoring developments.

Major investment banks are trying to avoid being drawn into the growing bubble. Goldman Sachs on Monday warned its traders to avoid spreading rumours and urged them to stay off social media, Financial News reported.

The surge in interest in silver could generate logistical challenges for ETFs, many of which have to hold physical bars in warehouses.

Mr de Casa said: "You might see a shortage in trucks to move [silver] around - we have seen that in the past a couple of times."

Philip Newman, a founding partner of Metals Focus, added: "iShares Silver Trust had about 1,000 tonnes go in on Friday - that is unbelievable, absolutely nuts, it's like 14 days of global mine supply in a day went into one product.”

The rally has echoes of the billionaire Hunt brothers’ efforts to corner the market by buying up silver in 1979-80 - before being bankrupted when prices collapsed.

It comes as Bank of America warned of several similarities between today’s stock market and that of 2000 on the eve of the Dotcom crash, including heavy retail participation and mass euphoria.

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