To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? Firstly, we'll want to see a proven return on capital employed (ROCE) that is increasing, and secondly, an expanding base of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. Although, when we looked at AES (NYSE:AES), it didn't seem to tick all of these boxes.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for AES:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.084 = US$2.4b ÷ (US$35b - US$5.8b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2022).

Therefore, AES has an ROCE of 8.4%. In absolute terms, that's a low return, but it's much better than the Renewable Energy industry average of 3.7%.

See our latest analysis for AES

Above you can see how the current ROCE for AES compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.

So How Is AES' ROCE Trending?

Things have been pretty stable at AES, with its capital employed and returns on that capital staying somewhat the same for the last five years. This tells us the company isn't reinvesting in itself, so it's plausible that it's past the growth phase. With that in mind, unless investment picks up again in the future, we wouldn't expect AES to be a multi-bagger going forward. With fewer investment opportunities, it makes sense that AES has been paying out a decent 36% of its earnings to shareholders. Unless businesses have highly compelling growth opportunities, they'll typically return some money to shareholders.

Our Take On AES' ROCE

In a nutshell, AES has been trudging along with the same returns from the same amount of capital over the last five years. Yet to long term shareholders the stock has gifted them an incredible 106% return in the last five years, so the market appears to be rosy about its future. However, unless these underlying trends turn more positive, we wouldn't get our hopes up too high.

If you want to know some of the risks facing AES we've found 3 warning signs (2 are concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

While AES may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.