Gevo Stock Could Hit $16, Says Analyst

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Gevo (GEVO) has been busy on the deals front recently and on Tuesday the company announced its biggest one so far.

The renewable fuel start-up has signed a fuel supply agreement (FSA) with Kolmar. It is an eight-year deal to supply the Switzerland-based company with 45 million gallons per year of renewable transportation fuel including sustainable aviation fuel, and isooctane. In total, Gevo should be able to rake in annual revenue of $350 million, with transportation fuels generating $300 million while byproducts such as protein and corn oil should generate another $50 million.

Importantly, the amount represents the total capacity of the company’s Net-Zero 2 plant which is currently in development, with the Midwest location yet to be determined.

Gevo’s present contracted FSA portfolio has reached 99 million gallons a year, amounting to roughly $4.4 billion in revenue, but the company’s pipeline is growing rapidly. There is also the potential for Chevron to offtake roughly 150 million gallons per year, according to a letter of intent the two companies have signed.

“The addition of Kolmar to the customer list is positive,” says Noble analyst Poe Fratt. “While not as well known as Chevron or Trafigura, Kolmar is a private company with a global footprint in the biofuels space. The expanded customer list complements recent moves to form alliances with ADM and Axens, and the additions of Chevron (CVX) as a co-investor and Kiewit as the FEED engineer and probable EPC contractor. Each partner enhances the credit profile and credibility of the Net Zero and ethanol-to-jet concepts.”

Gevo saw out Q3 with $522 million of cash on the balance sheet and based on the current development pipeline, Fratt doesn’t think any more capital raises will be needed right now. However, the analyst notes that extra capital raises, including equity, might be required, as more FSAs are signed, and construction costs rise.

Bottom line, Fratt rates GEVO an Outperform (i.e. Buy) rating, backed by a $16 price target. The implication for investors? Upside of a whopping 183%. (To watch Fratt’s track record, click here)

Overall, there are 3 recent reviews on record for GEVO and all are Buys – making the analyst consensus rating a unanimous Strong Buy. Shares are priced at $5.64 and the average price target of $14.67 indicates ~160% upside potential from that level. (See Gevo stock forecast on TipRanks)

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

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