Get ready for the most important economic event of the 2016 election

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voting booths stations

On Friday, November 4, just four days before American voters head to the polls, the October jobs report will hit the tape.

The monthly US jobs report is the most widely-followed of the periodic economic reports. Because October’s will be the last one before the election, it’ll be America’s final update on the state of the economy. It’ll set the tone for voters. And so, the October jobs report is the biggest economic event of the election.

Wall Street expects the US economy added 175,000 jobs in October, which would be an improvement over the 154,000 jobs added in September. The Republican nominee called that September report “weak.”

Economists also expect average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.6% over the prior year.

So far this year average payroll growth has totaled 178,000 jobs per month, down from the 251,000 and 229,000 averages we saw in 2014 and 2015, respectively.

Overall, however, the economy remains on solid footing and the labor market is a highlight.

And as Business Insider’s Bob Bryan wrote last week, recent data — notably Friday’s third-quarter GDP report — have thrown a wrench in one of Trump’s key campaign claims, which is that the US economy stinks.

For while the economy has muddled along and grown at about 2% per year during President Obama’s second term, a strong labor market and solid consumer spending somewhat undercuts the long-held Trump idea that the US economy is horrible.

Additionally, markets have begun to see a Hillary Clinton presidency as a broad continuation of Obama’s economic policies and are comfortable with this idea.

And the negative market reaction to Friday’s headlines regarding additional Clinton emails serves as proof-positive that markets are unnerved by the prospects of Trump winning the White House.

Which brings us back to Friday’s jobs report.

Recall that in 2012, former GE CEO Jack Welch famously tweeted “these Chicago guys will do anything” after a positive jobs report followed a terrible debate performance from President Obama against then-Republican nominee Mitt Romney.

The idea here is that the government manipulated this report to boost Obama’s standing with the public and secure him a second term.

And so expect Friday’s jobs report — the final economic data point to potentially swing the election — to be highly scrutinized by supporters of both candidates.

Or maybe more.

Myles Udland is a writer at Yahoo Finance.

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