May 4—GRAND FORKS — The share of North Dakota students filling out the federal application for college financial aid is falling, and it's falling fastest for lower-income students.

That's according to data compiled by the National College Attainment Network, which tracks the share of high school seniors completing the Free Application for Federal Student Aid at schools across the country and compares it against factors such as geographic locale and poverty level.

In North Dakota, the number of high school seniors completing the financial aid form is down 21% as of April 19, compared to the same time last year.

But for students at high schools that report more than half their student body qualifies for free or reduced-price meals under the National School Lunch Program, FAFSA completions are down 53.6%. At some schools, that figure is north of 80%.

"We're seeing students who are saying, 'well, I'm not going to school,' because the national narrative is that school is too expensive and they won't be be able to afford it," said Derek Sporbert, who directs the federally-funded TRIO programs for first-generation and Pell Grant-eligible students at the University of North Dakota.

FAFSA completions are down significantly across the country this year, in part due to

a widely-publicized debacle surrounding the rollout

of a "simplified" version of the financial aid form.

Schools where more than half of students qualify for free or reduced-price meals represent less than 5% of North Dakota's high school seniors, but a decile breakdown of completion rates at high schools across the state show completion rates falling faster at lower-income schools.

At schools where 40% to 49% of students qualify for free or reduced-price meals, completions are down 46.1%.

Conversely, schools where less than 10% of students qualify for the federal meals program have seen completions drop by only 7.5%.

To qualify for the National School Lunch Program, families must have a household income between 185% and 130% of the federal poverty level for reduced-price meals and below 130% for free meals.

For low-income students, the FAFSA delays are "another brick in the wall," Sporbert said.

He noted first-generation and low-income students were likelier to report difficulties completing the FAFSA form, while at the same time being likelier to report filling it out on their own.

"(Students) are looking at their return on investment — 'can I just stay here and work in my community and I won't be in debt? Or do I take a chance, take out some student loans and do a thing that nobody's ever done in my family before?'" Sporbert said. "That can be a difficult decision for students (and) that can be a difficult decision for parents, especially parents who aren't familiar with the postsecondary system."

Those students are also dogged by misinformation, like horror stories about runaway student debt linked to private loans — instead of federal aid — and claims that nobody will be getting federal student aid this year.

"It's really disheartening because low-income students disproportionately benefit from financial aid," said Bill DeBaun, senior director of data and strategic initiatives at NCAN.

Lower-income students in North Dakota already lagged behind their wealthier peers when it comes to completing the FAFSA.

This time last year, there was a 13-point gap in FAFSA completion between the share of students at the wealthiest schools in North Dakota and the poorest. Now, there's a more than 36-point gap.

"This isn't a new phenomenon for the class of 2024," said DeBaun. "There's always been an equity concern of 'are we getting FAFSAs completed by the students who would benefit most?'"

More broadly, he said the FAFSA debacle was part of a trend of issues disrupting students' college plans nationwide in recent years, pointing to the COVID-19 pandemic as the start.

Those disruptions fall harder on students who are already less likely to attend college, he said.

"We talk a lot about self-belief and seeing yourself as a college student," DeBaun said. "When we see something like the FAFSA delays, students take that as a sign that I should wait and go later or I won't go at all."

Sporbert says he's not worried about high school seniors who have access to TRIO's pre-college programs — for instance, at Grafton High School, FAFSA completions have actually increased this year, which counselor Nicole Warren credited in part to TRIO's presence.

Sporbert is concerned about those the program doesn't reach.

"We're limited in our grants and funding, so we can only work in certain areas," he said. "So I worry about students ... that aren't getting the help that we're able to provide or attend schools that aren't able to provide additional college readiness."

At Minto (N.D.) Public School in Walsh County, which will see a graduating class of 22 this year, only five students have filled out the FAFSA so far, compared to 12 this time last year.

More than half of Minto's students qualify for free or reduced-price meals, but the school also posted a more than 50% completion rate for the FAFSA last year. (Sporbert pointed out schools like Minto are likely to show big swings in completion rates due to small class sizes.)

Part-time high school counselor Linda Lutovsky attributes the decline to the issues with the FAFSA, but said she is confident those numbers will rebound in the coming weeks.

"The bad timing getting (the FAFSA) out has impacted students getting it done," Lutovsky said. "But here in Minto, they're getting it done."

In Grand Forks, FAFSA completions are down 22.2% at Red River and Central high schools, and down 41.7% at Community High School.

At Red River, 20.1% of students qualify for free or reduced-price meals, while 32.5% qualify at Central and 47.1% do at Community.