Brent and WTI Crude Oil Prices Rally Due to Short Covering

The Depressed Crude Oil Market and Oil Producers' Sustainability

Brent and WTI crude oil prices

The US benchmark WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts for February delivery rose by 1.6% and settled at $38.10 per barrel on December 24, 2015. Likewise, global benchmark Brent crude oil rose by 1.4% to close at $37.89 per barrel on the same day. Prices rose due to short covering and technical buying. Oil ETFs such as the United States Oil ETF (USO) and the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (UCO) also rose by 0.4% and 1.3%, respectively.

Short covering

The US benchmark and global benchmark crude oil prices are trading at record lows. US WTI is trading close to 2009 lows and Brent is trading close to its 11-year low. US oil prices gained more than 6% in the last three trading sessions. Oil prices have gained due to bargain buying and short covering. Meanwhile, the unexpected fall in the US crude oil inventory by 5.9 MMbbls (million barrels) for the week ending December 18 also boosted the crude oil prices. To learn more about global inventory read the next part of this series.

The increase in oil prices positively benefits US crude oil producers such as Pioneer (PXD), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Marathon Oil (MRO). In contrast, they negatively impact the revenues of US oil refiners such as Phillips 66 Company (PSX) and Valero Energy (VLO).

US crude oil ban lifted

On December 18, 2015, the US government lifted the 40-year-old crude oil export ban. The lifting of the ban means US oil producers can sell US crude oil to overseas countries. As a result, US crude oil prices have traded at a premium over Brent crude oil prices since January 2015. Top management from Hess (HES) suggests that the lifting of the 40-year-old export ban could push US crude oil prices by $5–$8 per barrel. For more information, read WTI and Brent Oil Spread Makes US Crude Oil Exports Unviable.

Hedge funds

Hedge funds increased their longs for the first time in the last six weeks on the speculation that oil prices could bottom out. This suggests hedge funds are using the bargain-buying opportunity. However, the overall crude oil trend is still bearish. Oil prices fell by 35% YTD (year-to-date) due to oversupply concerns. This bear market is expected to continue into 2016. Why? Read the next part of the series to know more.

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