Boris Johnson odds: What betting markets are predicting for the PM
With Boris Johnson’s future as prime minister in the balance, following a flurry of resignations including those of the chancellor and the health secretary, we look at his quitting odds.
BetFair Exchange has him more likely than not to go before the end of 2022. The bookie said he was 1.21 to leave before 31 July and 1.03 to go this year. However, as pressure builds almost by the minute, BetFair said “he could be gone within hours or days”.
👋 Will Boris Johnson resign before the end of July?
🗣Our man @SamRoscoe just updated us on what the Exchange market is saying
But what do you think...— Betfair Exchange (@BetfairExchange) July 6, 2022
It also said that Penny Mordaunt was the new clear favourite to be the next Conservative leader at 6/1, ahead of Jeremy Hunt, Ben Wallace and Liz Truss at 8/1.
Read more: UK pound slides against dollar as Boris Johnson faces cabinet chaos
Sunak was 10/1 generally in the market pre-resignation, but his departure from cabinet has seen him cut into favourite to replace Johnson.
Sunak has taken 20% of bets staked on oddschecker in the past 24 hours to take over next from the prime minister. Sky Bet have priced Johnson’s exit date for 2022 at 1/7 (previously 4/5) following the news.
Next Prime Minister odds
Rishi Sunak: 4/1
Penny Mordaunt: 7/1
Jeremy Hunt: 8/1
Liz Truss: 9/1
Ben Wallace: 10/1
Nadhim Zahawi: 12/1
Keir Starmer: 16/1
Sajid Javid: 13/1
Adam Cole, head of currency strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said: "Markets have now all but written off Boris Johnson as PM.
"There is no real clear frontrunner to replace him and the potential PMs run to a dozen different people, without a view on that it’s difficult to say what Boris' replacement would mean for policy."
Read more: Wall Street and FTSE 100 in the green as Johnson’s premiership hangs by a thread
Bookies William Hill said the odds of the prime minister leaving this year is just 1/8, with punters turning their attention to who will replace him.
William Hill said Penny Mordaunt had headed the market as to who would replace Johnson, at 6/1 for the last few months, with Sunak's odds having nosedived to just 3/1 following his resignation.
Mordaunt is the 4/1 second favourite, while Ben Wallace, defence secretary, has been punted into 13/2 from 9/1.
Paddy Power was only paying out £1 for every £10 placed on Johnson’s departure before the end of the year.
Ladbrokes is pricing Penny Mordaunt at 4/1 to replace Johnson as the leader of the Conservative party. The bookie is shows Sunak remains tied with Mordaunt at 4/1 to become the next Tory leader.
As one of the most popular senior ministers, foreign secretary Liz Truss is seen by Ladbrokes as being closely behind Mordaunt and Sunak at 8/1, but she remains publicly loyal to Johnson and has not yet resigned from her position.
