Following the Taliban takeover of the Afghan government, President Biden’s odds of reelection in 2024 fell from 25% to 21% within a span of 72 hours, according to data by UK-based betting exchange company Smarkets. Vice President Harris’ chances of a 2024 presidential win was also downgraded from an April high of 21% to just 13% by Wednesday.
“For a sitting president to be given only a 21% chance of re-election by Smarkets traders is staggeringly low,” Smarkets Head of Political Markets Matthew Shaddick said. “Kamala Harris’s prospects had been on the downgrade for some time and both could still have further to fall given the administration’s foreign policy problems.”
Biden spoke regarding the situation in Afghanistan in an interview with ABC lead anchor and former White House communications director George Stephanopoulos on Wednesday, stating that it was unanticipated that “the 300,000 troops we had trained and equipped [were] gonna just collapse [and] give up.”
According to Shaddick, Biden’s approval rating continues to slump in comparison to those of recent presidents at this stage in their presidency, with the exception of Donald Trump. Biden’s odds of ending the first year of his presidency with a negative approval rating are now at 29% on the Smarkets exchange, with further blows to his popularity likely on the horizon as a result of the developments in Afghanistan.
As for the former president’s chances of a comeback in 2024, Trump is currently rated at 12% likely by the odds for a White House return, down slightly from a mid-March high of 13% and just 1.6% behind Harris. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence occupy the fourth and fifth spots, with a 6.7% and 4% chance of taking the presidency in 2024, respectively.
Looking north of the border, early odds also suggest that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party has around a 50-50 chance of winning an outright majority in the Sept. 20 snap election.
“Turning to Canada, prospects appear brighter for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau,” Shaddick said. “Currently heading a coalition government, the latest Smarkets data suggests it’s about 50-50 that his Liberal Party will win enough seats to form a majority government on 20 September."
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