Trump’s campaign spending, super PACs and more: What to look for in this week’s campaign disclosures

Politico· Joe Lamberti/AP

The race for the White House and the battle for Congress are in full swing. And this week, campaigns up and down the ballot have to open up their books to reveal how they’re funding it.

As candidates shift from primary to general election mode, the resources they have will set the tone for the months ahead. The details of their war chests will be revealed this week, when the latest campaign finance reports are due to the Federal Election Commission. Reports due on Monday cover the first quarter of 2024 for congressional campaigns, joint fundraising committees and some super PACs. We’ll get our first look in a while at the financial situation for candidates in the pivotal House and Senate races likely to determine control of Congress this year.

And we’ll see the latest from former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden’s campaigns later this week, when their monthly totals for March are due on Saturday.

Here are some of the questions that will be answered in this week’s reports.

What’s new inside Trump's money machine?

Several committees in Trump’s orbit will file their first reports in several months on Monday. While presidential campaign committees file monthly reports, Trump does most of his fundraising through joint fundraising committees, which file Monday. Most notable is the Save America Joint Fundraising Committee, which raised a whopping $129 million in the 2023 calendar year and sends funds to both his campaign and his leadership PAC.

One thing we’ll be watching for is to what extent the committees are having to spend big to fundraise. His leading small dollar fundraising committee spent $48 million on operating expenditures to cover costs such as renting fundraising lists from other groups and candidates to try to reach more donors in 2023, which meant only 62 percent of what it raised actually went to its affiliates. (For comparison, Biden’s largest joint fundraising committee, Biden Victory Fund, sent 71 percent of what it raised to affiliated committees in 2023.)

We will also get the first filings ever from two new joint fundraising committees, Trump 47 Committee and the Trump National Committee, both of which include the former president’s campaign as well as the Republican National Committee. These committees are allowed to accept much larger checks due to the RNC’s inclusion, so look out for big donors that Trump’s campaign has worked hard to woo.

The Saturday filings will include another month of financial data not just from Trump’s campaign, but also the leadership PAC that has been covering millions of dollars in legal bills for him and others, as well as the major super PAC backing him.

How are Biden and his allies stocking up for the year ahead?

Several major Democratic super PACs will also file their first 2024 reports on Monday, including Future Forward — which has committed to spending $250 million to boost Biden this year — as well as groups such as Priorities USA and American Bridge, that are expected to similarly dump hundreds of millions into the presidential race.

The massive avalanche of cash from these groups is a key part of Democrats’ plan to help Biden close the polling gap with Trump, with the super PACs poised to pummel the former president across TV and digital platforms for much of the fall. Their spending has not picked up in earnest yet, but Monday’s filings could start to reveal who is bankrolling the hundreds of millions in expected spending.

Biden’s campaign has been bringing in big bucks too — the $25 million Radio City Music Hall fundraiser was in March — and spending a lot as it staffs up and buys ads in key swing states. Its Saturday report will detail those cash flows.

How do vulnerable Senate Democrats stack up against their self-funding challengers?

Republicans are relying on self-funders to propel the party through competitive races this year, most notably in the Trump-won states of Ohio and Montana, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But because it’s early in the cycle, it’s just a hint of the spending that is to come as the races heat up.

These finance reports will provide the first indication of Eric Hovde’s spending. Hovde, a businessperson who is running against Democratic Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin, launched his campaign in late February, around halfway through the quarter. Just a couple of weeks later, he said that he raised $1 million, not including personal investments.

In Ohio, the picture will be a bit skewed, given Republicans went through a bruising and high-dollar primary. Republican Bernie Moreno, who ultimately secured the GOP nomination, loaned his campaign $1.2 million in the two months ahead of the GOP primary, alone. Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown — one of the most endangered Democrats this cycle — has already boasted a mammoth $12 million haul for the first quarter of the year.

Pennsylvania Republican Dave McCormick, who unsuccessfully ran for Senate in 2022 when he lost in the primary, is coasting to the general election this time with no intraparty competition. So far, he’s put around $2 million into his bid, from September through April. McCormick and Democratic Sen. Bob Casey were neck-and-neck through early April: Casey raised $5.7 million and McCormick brought in $5.4 million, including a $1 million contribution, according to their most recent campaign committee filings.

But there’s a good baseline of how much McCormick is willing to spend when the race gets more competitive: He poured in more than $14 million just for the primary in 2022.

And in Montana, Republican businessperson Tim Sheehy has not yet dropped in a large personal investment. Since launching his campaign in October through the end of 2023, he has put in less than $1 million.

Can House Democrats maintain their cash edge?

Democratic challengers kicked off 2024 with a slight advantage over Republicans looking to topple vulnerable Democrats. But we’ll see if the parties have narrowed the gap in these battleground House districts, as more primaries are on the calendar for the second quarter. And with Republicans’ narrow majority, every dollar counts for control of the House.

Around a half-dozen Democratic challengers have already announced major hauls over $1 million for the first quarter of 2024, including candidates in New York, California, Michigan and Arizona.

Vulnerable Democratic incumbents are also touting their million-plus dollar fundraising, including North Carolina Rep. Don Davis, Pennsylvania Reps. Matt Cartwright and Susan Wild, and Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola. Some battleground Republicans have advertised raking impressive amounts, too: California Reps. Ken Calvert, Young Kim and Michelle Steel, Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick and Montana Rep. Ryan Zinke each said they brought in $1 million or more early this year.

What’s going on with small-dollar money?

Monday is the first 2024 filing deadline for WinRed, the major Republican fundraising platform used by Trump and many downballot candidates. Its Democratic counterpart, ActBlue, files monthly and will report its March numbers by Saturday.

WinRed and ActBlue’s data discloses most small-dollar donors who give through the platforms, which can give us an understanding of how many people are donating to each candidate, and the overall size of each party’s donor pool.

Usually, we would expect donor engagement to be increasing as we get into an election year. But small-dollar donors have largely been lagging for both parties so far this cycle, perhaps a sign of discontent with the candidates at the top of each ticket as well as a response to structural changes in the online ecosystem that have made it harder for campaigns to target individual donors. WinRed’s latest filing, which will cover the first three months of the year, will help show whether Republicans have been able to right the ship, or if small-dollar givers are still staying on the sidelines. And ActBlue’s numbers a few days later show how Democrats line up.

A version of this story first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score newsletter. Sign up for POLITICO Pro.

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