How Zac Efron, Greta Lee and More Actors With SAG-AFTRA Interim Agreements Have Oscars Advantage

The road to the Oscars is looking bleaker than before.

With the WGA securing its deal with the studios earlier this month, the industry was caught off guard when the AMPTP announced it was suspending negotiations with SAG-AFTRA, which has been on strike since July.

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There’s no end in sight, but one thing is apparent: Independent features may have a competitive advantage in the Oscar race. That’s because indie film writers and actors can promote their projects via interim agreements.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

To obtain an interim agreement from SAG-AFTRA, a producer must operate independently from companies belonging to the AMPTP and agree to terms proposed by the guild in its negotiations. Thus far, more than 100 interim agreements have been approved. Studios not part of the AMPTP, including A24, Lionsgate and Neon, are eligible, as are independently financed films.

With the Oscar race fielding five solid bets in the best picture category from big-spending studios — Apple’s “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Netflix’s “Maestro,” Searchlight Pictures’ “Poor Things,” Warner Bros.’ “Barbie” and Universal’s “Oppenheimer” — every other outfit is vying to fill the five remaining slots.

“While everyone is silenced, you’d be stupid not to be as loud as possible,” an awards strategist tells Variety. “I’ll be curious about how loud it will get when we come back because everyone will feel that some had a head start.”

At the same time, “an interim agreement doesn’t necessarily mean an actor will come out and promote their movie,” another publicity consultant says. “The bigger the star, the more scrutiny they can face if they try to get an Oscar nomination.”

All of A24’s fall releases have obtained interim agreements, most notably its top three awards hopefuls — Celine Song’s “Past Lives,” Jonathan Glazer’s “The Zone of Interest” and Sean Durkin’s “The Iron Claw.” The indie studio is also steering the horror-comedy “Dream Scenario,” starring Nicolas Cage.

As it happens, “The Zone of Interest’s” Sandra Hüller also stars in “Anatomy of a Fall,” which is distributed by Neon. The Palme d’Or winner wasn’t selected as France’s international submission, but the studio still plans to push forward with a full awards campaign.

Additionally, Neon is guiding Hollywood veteran Michael Mann and his biopic “Ferrari,” with Academy darlings Adam Driver and Penélope Cruz. The visionary filmmaker only has a single Oscar nom for directing, for “The Insider” (1999). Given the auteur’s illustrious career, the Directors Branch could feel compelled to invite him back after such a long break.

Neon also acquired “Origin,” from writer-director Ava DuVernay, but an interim agreement is still pending. Once media outlets are given access to star Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor and DuVernay’s stunning work, both actress and director will be even better positioned to make room for themselves in the history books. Only one Black woman has won lead actress (Halle Berry for 2001’s “Monster’s Ball”), and a Black woman has yet to be nominated for directing.

Though Lionsgate isn’t a member of the AMPTP, there’s no confirmation or record of its films applying for agreements. “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” from Kelly Fremon Craig is a critical darling, but don’t expect to see its stars bringing notice to the Judy Blume adaptation.

When the pandemic shut down the global economy in 2020, we may have witnessed one of the “purest” Oscar lineups in recent memory. Talent and studios were unable to host tastemakers or bombard the public with ads. Instead, industry voters were stuck at home, with no choice but to watch the movies available to them. Perhaps that’s why the noms reflected a more balanced distribution of preferences among the establishment (“Mank”), the young and diverse members (“Judas and the Black Messiah”) and the international pockets (“The Father”).

If the strike continues without stars on the circuit, voters may be left to their own devices again. Perhaps that’s not such a bad thing?

Read the latest prediction updates below.

Current Oscars Tracking
(Oct. 19, 2023)

Best Picture
“American Fiction” (MGM)
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
“The Iron Claw” (A24)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Maestro” (Netflix)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“Origin” (Neon)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
“The Zone of Interest” (A24)

Director
Greta Gerwig — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Yorgos Lanthimos — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Christopher Nolan — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Alexander Payne — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
Martin Scorsese — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper — “Maestro” (Netflix)
Leonardo DiCaprio — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Colman Domingo — “Rustin” (Netflix)
Cillian Murphy — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Jeffrey Wright — “American Fiction” (MGM)

Best Actress
Lily Gladstone — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Sandra Hüller — “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
Carey Mulligan — “Maestro” (Netflix)
Margot Robbie — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Emma Stone — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Robert DeNiro — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Robert Downey Jr. — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Ryan Gosling — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Mark Ruffalo — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
America Ferrera — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Julianne Moore — “May December” (Netflix)
Cara Jade Myers — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)

Original Screenplay
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
“The Iron Claw” (A24)
“Maestro” (Netflix)
“Past Lives” (A24)

Adapted Screenplay
“American Fiction” (MGM)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
“The Zone of Interest” (A24)

Animated Feature
“The Boy and the Heron” (GKids)
“Elemental” (Pixar)
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
“Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation)
“Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)

Production Design
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Maestro” (Netflix)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

Cinematography
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“The Zone of Interest” (A24)

Costume Design
“Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Maestro” (Netflix)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

Film Editing
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Maestro” (Netflix)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

Makeup and Hairstyling
“Ferrari” (Neon)
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)
“The Iron Claw” (A24)
“Maestro” (Netflix)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

Sound
“Ferrari” (Neon)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Maestro” (Netflix)
“Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

Visual Effects
“Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
“The Creator” (20th Century Studios)
“The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)

Original Score
“American Fiction” (MGM)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“Origin” (Neon)
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)

Original Song
“What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“The Fire Inside” from “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
“I Am” from “Origin” (Neon)
“Better Place” from “Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation)
“This Wish” from “Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)

Documentary Feature
“20 Days in Mariupol” (PBS)
“American Symphony” (Netflix)
“Anselm” (Janus/Sideshow)
“Little Richard: I Am Everything” (Magnolia Pictures)
“They Shot the Piano Player” (Sony Pictures Classics)

International Feature
“Perfect Days” from Japan (Neon)
“The Taste of Things” from France (IFC Films)
“The Teachers’ Lounge” from Germany (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Peasants” from Poland (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Zone of Interest” from U.K. (A24)

Animated Short
“Ashkaska” (Distributor TBA)
“The Old Young Crow” (Distributor TBA
“Once Upon a Studio” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“Peter and the Wolf” (HBO)
“Way Better” (Distributor TBA)

Documentary Short
“Between Earth and Sky” (POV Shorts)
“Camp Courage” (Netflix)
“Deciding Vote” (The New Yorker)
“The Last Repair Shop” (Searchlight Pictures)
“A Tattoo on My Brain” (MTV Documentary Films)

Live Action Short
“The After” (Netflix)
“Shadow Brother Sunday” (Distributor TBD)
“The Shepherd” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“Take Me Home” (Distributor TBD)
“Troy” (The New Yorker)

Top 4 Nomination Leaders Tracking (Film)

1. “Killers of the Flower Moon” — 13

2. “Oppenheimer” — 12

3. “Barbie” — 10

4. “Maestro” and “Poor Things” — 9

Top 4 Nomination Leaders Tracking (Studios)

1. Apple Original Films — 15

2. Netflix — 14

3. Universal Pictures — 12

4. Searchlight Pictures and Warner Bros. — 11

Oscars Predictions Categories

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

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