‘Women Talking’ is way ahead in our Writers Guild odds, but faces a tougher challenge at the Oscars

For a film nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars, “Women Talking” has been on a pretty rocky road throughout the awards season. It received no BAFTA nominations and just one other Oscar nom: Best Adapted Screenplay for writer-director Sarah Polley‘s script, which was based on the novel of the same name by Miriam Toews about a group of Mennonite women grappling with sexual assault in their community. It’s nominated in the same category at the Writers Guild Awards, but while it’s favored to win both prizes, its bigger challenge may be the Oscars.

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At the WGA Awards, “Women Talking” has leading odds of 82/25 based on the combined predictions of around 1,300 Gold Derby users as of this writing. Among those betting on it are eight out of nine Expert journalists we’ve surveyed so far from major media outlets, seven Gold Derby Editors, 18 of our Top 24 Users, and 17 of our All-Star Top 24. It’s not unbeatable here, though. Several Top Users think “Glass Onion” will surprise. And one Expert thinks “Top Gun: Maverick” will upset. Both of those scripts also have Oscar nominations, so we know they have strong industry support.

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But the film that may pose the biggest threat to “Women Talking” at the Oscars wasn’t nominated at the WGA Awards, which have unique eligibility rules that disqualified some films from consideration. That film is “All Quiet on the Western Front,” which won BAFTA Awards for Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay. And it had much more support from academy voters, who nominated it for nine awards compared to “Women Talking’s” two. So while “Women” is still the consensus choice for the Oscar win, “All Quiet” is backed by many Experts, Editors, Top Users, and All-Stars.

So will Polley win both prizes for her writing, as our odds indicate? Or could we be in for a couple of big surprises?

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