What will win the talk series Emmy in ‘Last Week Tonight’s’ absence?

“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver’s” Emmy win streak has come to an end — well, sort of. In December, the TV academy revamped its Best Variety Talk Series and Best Variety Sketch Series categories, which are now known as Best Talk Series and Best Scripted Variety Series. The change means “Last Week Tonight,” the seven-time reigning Best Variety Talk Series champ, must now compete in Best Scripted Variety Series, as it’s almost entirely scripted, against the likes of “Saturday Night Live” and “A Black Lady Sketch Show.” So which talk series will benefit from “Last Week Tonight’s” defection from the category?

In early odds, “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” leads the way in first place, followed by “Late Night with Seth Meyers,” “The Daily Show with Trevor Noah,” Jimmy Kimmel Live!” and “Late Late Show with James Corden.” The first four were nominated last year, so you’d assume they’ll safely make it back in, especially with an extra slot “open.” A four-time nominee, “Late Late Show” has not been nominated since 2019, but this was James Corden‘s final season, though he wasn’t the only late-night host bidding adieu this cycle as Trevor Noah signed off in December.

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“The Late Show” makes a lot of sense as the winner of this rechristened category. For one, there’s double legacy here. The OG “Late Show with David Letterman” won, as it was known then, Best Variety Series six times. “The Colbert Report” took home Best Variety Series two times in 2013 and ’14, the latter being the last year of the category before it was split into Best Variety Talk Series and Best Variety Sketch Series. And while his version of “Late Show” has yet to nab the series prize, Colbert did win Best Variety Special (Live) in 2021 for “Stephen Colbert’s Election Night 2020: Democracy’s Last Stand Building Back America Great Again Better 2020.”

But there’s a dark horse here that’s also a legacy name and even more of an Emmy magnet than Colbert. Nominated last year as Best Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special, “The Problem with Jon Stewart” is now in the talk category and sits outside the predicted top five in sixth place. And you don’t need us to remind you that “The Daily Show with Jon Stewart” has 11 wins — 10 consecutively as Best Variety Series from 2003-12 before “The Colbert Report” disrupted its streak and a farewell victory in 2015 as Best Variety Talk Series. If the show makes the cut, let’s not underestimate voters’ penchant for giving Emmys to Jon Stewart.

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