Who will (and should) win at the 2022 Emmys

Who will take home Lady Emmy when the Television Academy hands out the coveted statuettes at the 74th Annual Emmy Awards (Monday, September 12 at 8 p.m. on NBC)? Only those little envelopes know for sure... but EW critics Kristen Baldwin and Darren Franich have some fearless predictions.

Outstanding Drama

• Better Call Saul

• Euphoria

• Ozark

• Severance

• Squid Game

• Stranger Things

• Succession

• Yellowjackets

Macall Polay/HBO Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook, and Kieran Culkin in Succession

Buzzy new dramas have some history here, with the debut seasons of Homeland and The Handmaid's Tale taking the top Drama prize. That would be good news for any of this year's three buzzy new series. But Severance, Squid Game, and Yellowjackets are competing against the ongoing juggernaut of awards magnet Succession. Bet on the Roy family to win again this year (and pray voters don't forget about Better Call Saul's eligible-in-2023 final episodes.)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama

• Jodie Comer, Killing Eve

• Laura Linney, Ozark

• Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets

• Sandra Oh, Killing Eve

• Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show

• Zendaya, Euphoria

Kailey Schwerman/SHOWTIME Melanie Lynskey in 'Yellowjackets'

Two years after Zendaya became this category's youngest winner ever, she's back with another buzzy season of HBO's teen-chaos drama. But anticipate a slight upset for Lynskey, a beloved performer given an incredible spotlight (comedic! tragic! romantic! murderous!) in Yellowjackets.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama

• Jason Bateman, Ozark

• Brian Cox, Succession

• Lee Jung-jae, Squid Game

• Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul

• Adam Scott, Severance

• Jeremy Strong, Succession

netflix Lee Jung-Jae in 'Squid Game'

Will this finally be Odenkirk's year, after six Saul nominations? That would be amazing! It would also be amazing for Lee to follow up his SAG award with a historic prize for Squid Game. In a close race, we'll give the win to Lee.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama

• Patricia Arquette, Severance

• Julia Garner, Ozark

• Jung Ho-yeon, Squid Game

• Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets

• J. Smith Cameron, Succession

• Sarah Snook, Succession

• Sydney Sweeney, Euphoria

• Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul

Greg Lewis/AMC Rhea Seehorn as Kim Wexler on 'Better Call Saul'

Another high-powered category, and if there's any hope for a controversial final season of Ozark, it's probably the ascendant Garner (who won this prize twice already). And don't count out the TV Academy's love for Sweeney, who's also nominated for The White Lotus. But after years of snubbing, this feels like the moment for Seehorn, who carried the heaviest emotional weight of Saul's devastating final act.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama

• Nicholas Braun, Succession

• Billy Crudup, The Morning Show 

• Kieran Culkin, Succession

• Park Hae-soo, Squid Game

• Matthew Macfayden, Succession

• John Turturro, Severance

• Christopher Walken, Severance

• Oh Yeong-su, Squid Game

Graeme Hunter/HBO Kieran Culkin in 'Succession'

It's the Severance guys vs. the Succession guys vs. the Squid Game guys, and past winner Billy Crudup, too! If Severance rides high at the ceremony it could be either Turturro or Walken, but Culkin's steady work on Succession should bring home the trophy.

Outstanding Comedy

• Abbott Elementary

• Barry

• Curb Your Enthusiasm

• Hacks

• The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

• Only Murders in the Building

• Ted Lasso

• What We Do in the Shadows

Pamela Littky/ABC The cast of 'Abbott Elementary'

A critically adored broadcast-network hit from an exciting new creative voice, Abbott Elementary is the kind of all-quadrant success story that seemed to be going extinct in the TV landscape. What better way to end a triumphant first season than to take the stage at the Emmys? For that reason alone, we'll give the edge to Abbott over likely top contenders Ted Lasso and Hacks.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy

• Donald Glover, Atlanta

• Bill Hader, Barry

• Nicholas Hoult, The Great

• Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building

• Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building

• Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso

HBO

Before Sudeikis won this award for the very nice Ted Lasso, and before Eugene Levy won this award for the very nice Schitt's Creek, Hader dominated this category for two straight years with the decidedly not-nice (and outstanding) Barry. The bleakly hilarious HBO sitcom returned after three years with some of its nastiest episodes yet, and Hader's demolishing turn as an oddly charming/possibly psychotic hitman has never been more magnetic. Expect a threepeat.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy

• Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

• Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary

• Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant

• Elle Fanning, The Great

• Issa Rae, Insecure

• Jean Smart, Hacks

Karen Ballard/HBO Jean Smart is 'doin' Ellen' in 'Hacks' season 2 trailer

There's some serious competition here from Brunson and Fanning, not to mention a lot of love for Rae's Insecure swan song. But Smart has a unique position. She's the reigning champion, but Hacks' much-praised second season marked a discovery point for some viewers to catch up, and its recent renewal implies a lot of confidence from slash-happy HBO Max. Smart's the smart pick.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

• Anthony Carrigan, Barry

• Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso

• Toheeb Jimoh, Ted Lasso

• Nick Mohammed, Ted Lasso

• Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

• Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary

• Henry Winkler, Barry

• Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live

Merrick Morton/ HBO Henry Winkler in 'Barry'

This is ultimately a race between two previous winners: Brett Goldstein (2021) and Henry Winkler (2018), both of whom gave deserving performances. But we're going with Winkler, whose narcissistic acting teacher Gene Cousineau was undone by grief — and redeemed through regret — in Barry's stunning third season.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

• Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

• Hannah Einbinder, Hacks

• Janelle James, Abbott Elementary

• Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live

• Sarah Niles, Ted Lasso

• Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary

• Juno Temple, Ted Lasso

• Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso

Scott Everett White/ABC Janelle James in 'Abbott Elementary'

Predictions are all over the place in this category, making it look like a three-way tie between Janelle James, Hannah Waddingham, and Hannah Einbinder. While we'd be fine with all three actors taking the stage, James is the breakout star of 2022 — and voters love to reward critical darlings/first-time nominees. See: Hannah Waddingham (2021) and Annie Murphy (2020).

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series

• Dopesick, Hulu

• The Dropout, Hulu

• Inventing Anna, Netflix

• Pam & Tommy, Hulu

• The White Lotus, HBO

Mario Perez/HBO Natasha Rothwell in 'The White Lotus'

HBO's awards team has done an excellent job reminding voters why The White Lotus was such a phenomenon back in the summer of 2021. (Dropping the first footage of season 2 one week after nominations were announced was a nice touch.) Dopesick has at least one other category on lock (more on that below), but this award is Lotus' to lose.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie

• Colin Firth, The Staircase

• Andrew Garfield, Under the Banner of Heaven

• Oscar Isaac, Scenes from a Marriage

• Michael Keaton, Dopesick

• Himesh Patel, Station Eleven

• Sebastian Stan, Pam & Tommy

Gene Page/Hulu Michael Keaton on 'Dopesick'

He won the Golden Globe, the SAG, and the Critics' Choice Television Award. Heck, Michael Keaton even took home the AARP Movies for Grownups award for Best Actor (TV). Surely the Emmys aren't going to break such a notable — and well-deserved — streak? Hulu's Dopesick is almost unbearably sad, but the wrenching tale of the opioid crisis is rendered unmissable by a keenly moving performance by Keaton.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

• Toni Collette, The Staircase

• Julia Garner, Inventing Anna

• Lily James, Pam & Tommy

• Sarah Paulson, Impeachment: American Crime Story

• Margaret Qualley, Maid

• Amanda Seyfried, The Dropout

Beth Dubber/Hulu Amanda Seyfried in 'The Dropout'

Let's get one thing straight: This award belongs to Margaret Qualley. If you somehow missed Maid — which spent thirteen weeks in Netflix's top 10 last fall — Qualley gives a raw and beautifully unvarnished performance as Alex, a resourceful single mother determined to escape an abusive relationship. But Amanda Seyfried is the bigger star, and she did a solid impression of the Elizabeth Holmes' static-y baritone, so… congrats!

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie

• Murray Bartlett, The White Lotus

• Jake Lacy, The White Lotus

• Will Poulter, Dopesick

• Seth Rogen, Pam & Tommy

• Peter Sarsgaard, Dopesick

• Michael Stuhlbarg, Dopesick

• Steve Zahn, The White Lotus

Mario Perez/HBO Murray Bartlett on 'The White Lotus.'

Murray Bartlett's Armond pooped in a suitcase and yet we were still devastated by his untimely death. The choice is clear.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

• Connie Britton, The White Lotus

• Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus

• Alexandra Daddario, The White Lotus

• Kaitlyn Dever, Dopesick

• Natasha Rothwell, The White Lotus

• Sydney Sweeney, The White Lotus

• Mare Winningham, Dopesick

Mario Perez/HBO Jennifer Coolidge and Murray Bartlett in 'The White Lotus'

With seven nominees from only two series, vote splitting is inevitable in this battle of the stellar ensembles. As much as I'd love to see the win go to Dopesick's Kaitlyn Dever — so heart-wrenching as a young woman held captive by a vicious opioid addiction — the momentum is behind Jennifer Coolidge as White Lotus' Tanya, the kooky-loopy embodiment of privileged ennui.

Related content:

• 2022 Creative Arts Emmys: See the full winners list

• TV shows with the most Emmy nominations ever

• Emmys host Kenan Thompson says 'odds are pretty high' that some of his SNL characters will pop up at the ceremony