Why a $16 Million Opening for ‘Downton Abbey 2’ Is a Relief for Theaters
A sequel earning a $16 million opening weekend that’s half of what its predecessor made wouldn’t seem like a big deal, but that result for Focus Features’ “Downton Abbey: A New Era” is actually a sign of progress for arthouse theaters.
At a time when few films appealing specifically to women and even fewer for older audiences have done well at the box office, projections for the second “Downton Abbey” film never came close to the $31 million that the first film opened to in 2019. With a higher budget of $40 million thanks to on-location shooting in France, “A New Era” will also be less profitable though it has already grossed $51 million globally.
But compare this opening weekend to those of other mature dramas and awards contenders released this past fall. Clint Eastwood, typically a reliable draw for older men, saw his latest film, “Cry Macho,” open to just $4.4 million amidst mixed reviews and a day-and-date release on HBO Max that drew away some interested moviegoers. Steven Spielberg suffered the same fate as the $100 million “West Side Story” limped to a $10.5 million opening.
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Even beyond senior-appealing films, “Downton Abbey: A New Era” had a higher opening than Focus Features’ last wide release, “The Northman,” which opened to $12.2 million and hasn’t made back its $70 million budget theatrically. It’s also a step above the $14.8 million made in February by MGM’s “Dog,” another film aimed towards female audiences.
“Considering the context of the marketplace that it opened in, this is a good sign of progress at a time when there aren’t a lot of films for adults,” Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian said.
Demographic data showed that the audience for “Downton Abbey 2” this weekend was 73% female and an amazing 48% over the age of 55, with audience reception even stronger for this film with an “A” on CinemaScore and 77% “definite recommend” on Comscore/Screen Engine’s Postrak, up from 68% for the first “Downton Abbey.”
With “Top Gun: Maverick” and “The Bob’s Burgers Movie” catering to younger audiences this weekend, the best-case scenario for both Focus and arthouses is that this strong word-of-mouth brings seniors out to see “Downton Abbey” during Memorial Day weekend and into June — particularly those who have not been in a theater since the pandemic began. The first “Downton Abbey” had similar legs, turning its $31 million opening into a $96 million domestic run with a 3X multiple.
Lisa Bunnell, Focus’ domestic distribution chief, told TheWrap that her team is still compiling data on how much of the opening weekend audience were first-time returnees, but on an anecdotal level has already heard from arthouse owners who say that “Downton Abbey” has brought back some once-familiar customers.
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“At a lot of arthouses, the owners and staff know many of the regulars who come in and ask what they should see,” Bunnell said. “This weekend, we’ve heard from several arthouse operators who have told us that they saw regulars this weekend for the first time in over two years. Afternoon screenings have been doing strong business, so this is a film that is getting the ball rolling for a lot of independent cinemas out there.”
Looking ahead, the next film that might bring in an older-skewing crowd is Warner Bros.’ “Elvis,” the new Baz Luhrmann biopic with rising star Austin Butler as Elvis Presley and Tom Hanks as his manager, Colonel Tom Parker. While Warner Bros. has made Doja Cat’s original song for the film, “Vegas,” a core part of its digital marketing to attract younger audiences, it will obviously be the baby boomers who were around for the King of Rock’s heyday that will have the most interest in a film about his career.
Tracking for “Elvis,” which hits theaters June 24, hasn’t arrived yet. But if that biopic draws an even higher opening than “Downton Abbey: A New Era” with the over-45 demo having a significant share of the audience, then it will be a sign that the film industry is making meaningful progress in getting older adults back in the habit of moviegoing. That could roll into an awards season where contenders like “Babylon,” “The Fabelmans” and “The Woman King” may have more audience support than their 2021 counterparts.
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