Where does the Grammy race for Album of the Year currently stand with 2 eligibility months left?

Jaime Rodriguez
·5 min read
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Typically, it’s somewhat easy to predict most of the eventual Album of the Year nominees at the Grammys. There’s usually a number of albums that, because of their high profile or the popularity of the artist, just feel like they’re safe to get in. This year, however, that list is quite short, with a lot of the biggest names from these past few years of music either dropping their records last season or waiting for the next one. Nonetheless, the show must go on, and eight records will still be nominated. So what are the big contenders with just two months left before eligibility ends on September 15?

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Taylor Swift’s “Midnights” is the biggest lock there is for an Album of the Year nomination. Not only was the album a massive hit, it was acclaimed too, and Swift is just Grammy catnip at this point. The album broke streaming and sales records all over the globe and brought Swift to a whole new level of success. Of course, a win is not guaranteed for Swift: she has already won Album of the Year three times, and a fourth would make her the only artist ever to have won that many times. Plus, her last win was not long ago (“Folklore” in 2021), so voters might want her to do something genuinely colossal for them to truly go there. Still, “Midnights” is a record-breaking album, it has three big pop radio hits, and it got great reviews on top of a hugely successful tour. Rest assured, if you’re betting on anyone to get a nomination this year, it’s Swift.

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R&B superstar SZA is also very much locked at this rate. Her long-awaited sophomore record, “SOS,” received glowing reviews, earning a 90 on Metacritic. The album was also a huge commercial success and topped the Billboard 200 for 10 weeks, so it’s safe to say it is as popular as it can get. Whether SZA can win is a different conversation: the Grammys are not so fond of “urban” records, opting for more traditional R&B instead. Nonetheless, SZA has broken so many records this year that maybe the Grammys are willing to break some of their voting patterns too. And it does help that SZA has collected a lot of hits from the album, like the rising “Snooze” and the smashes “I Hate U,” “Good Days,” and “Kill Bill.”

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You should also probably consider Foo Fighters, who are back with “But Here We Are.” The record has proven to be their most acclaimed, and is a tribute to the band’s late drummer, Taylor Hawkins. Foo Fighters are also, simply put, huge Grammy darlings, sweeping the rock field multiple times including for their last effort, “Medicine at Midnight.” As such, a weak year combined with the sentimental factor, career-best reviews, and Grammy history all make for a solid bet for a nomination. And consider this: if Foo are the only rock act nominated and the pop stars do some heavy vote-splitting, they could actually surprise for the win.

Upcoming releases from previous general field winners Olivia Rodrigo and Jon Batiste could also be worth checking out. Rodrigo’s experiencing major success with her single “Vampire” right now, so it would make sense for the pop star to return to the Grammy stage in a big way, especially since she wasn’t particularly over-rewarded last time. Her new album “Guts” could be just the teen angst the Grammys need right now. Batiste is a more interesting case, as he could easily win just like he did last time. This time he’s dropping “World Music Radio,” which features a wide array of artists from all over the globe. Of course, like I mentioned with Swift, voters get iffy when it comes to repeating Album of the Year winners, so Batiste might have to settle for a nomination. But in a weak year, being a previous winner should at least mean an easy nom.

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Miley Cyrus’s “Endless Summer Vacation” could easily get in solely due to the strength of its massive hit single “Flowers,” but voters might also be hesitant to nominate it. In the end, the album didn’t really take off, so a lot of voters might feel like there’s no need for Cyrus to be recognized anywhere besides the “Flowers” categories. Another big name is Lana Del Rey, who, like Cyrus, probably stands no true chance at a win but could easily get namechecked. Del Rey’s latest album, “Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd,” was a considerable step up commercially from her previous efforts.

And of course, the elephant in the room is Morgan Wallen, who has the biggest album of the year with “One Thing At A Time.” Perhaps voters have forgiven Wallen and want to reward him for such massive success, or perhaps they don’t care about his brand of country or his apologies. Still, it’s not a strong year, so Wallen might just naturally get in.

Other albums to keep an eye on include: Boygenius’s “The Record,” Metro Boomin’s “Heroes and Villains,” Lil Uzi Vert’s “Pink Tape,” Kelly Clarkson’s “Chemistry,” Arctic Monkey’s “The Car,” and Ed Sheeran’s “Subtract.”

PREDICTthe Grammy nominations now

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