Watch out for these scene stealers in Best Picture Oscar frontrunners: Willem Dafoe, America Ferrera, Sterling K. Brown …

Matthew Stewart
·4 min read
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Since the supporting acting Oscar categories were established in 1937, occurrences of films receiving nominations for Best Picture and Best Supporting Actor and/or Actress have become fairly common. Of the 531 titles that have contended for the top honor over the past 87 years, 200 (38%) and 178 (34%) have respectively produced featured male and female nominees, with some having vied for (or, in the case of 2022’s “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” won) all three prizes. Gold Derby’s 2024 Oscar nominations predictions decently align with those percentages, but the majority of users may still be underestimating the potential of several on-the-bubble supporting hopefuls even though they appear in some of the year’s biggest films.

With this year’s Oscar nominations announcement just around the corner, we’ve analyzed our racetrack odds in an effort to get a jump on any possible new surprise supporting competitors. As evidenced by the recent bids of Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”), Judi Dench (“Belfast”), and LaKeith Stanfield (“Judas and the Black Messiah”), most unforeseen supporting mentions are tied to Best Picture nominees, so it only makes sense to dig deeper into that category. According to our odds, the 10 movies that will be included in the top lineup this year are “Oppenheimer,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Barbie,” “Poor Things,” “The Holdovers,” “American Fiction,” “Maestro,” “Past Lives,” “Anatomy of a Fall,” and “The Zone of Interest.”

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Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”) ranks first on our Best Supporting Actor list, ahead of Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”), Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”), Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), and Charles Melton (“May December”). On the female side, the clear frontrunner is Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”), followed by Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”), Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”), Jodie Foster (“Nyad”), and Julianne Moore (“May December”). While not far off, the resulting consensus that 60% of this year’s supporting contenders will hail from Best Picture nominees does conflict with the 10-year average of 70%.

In order to match said average, one must either deviate from the norm and make room for “The Color Purple,” “May December,” or “Nyad” in one’s Best Picture predictions or replace an expected supporting nominee from one of those weaker films with someone in a stronger Best Picture contender. As of now, our odds indicate that the safest male and female alternatives are Willem Dafoe (“Poor Things”) and America Ferrera (“Barbie”), whose profiles were recently boosted by his surprise solo SAG Award notice and her televised moment in the spotlight as the recipient of the Critics Choice Association’s SeeHer Award. Dafoe and Ruffalo – who have each appeared in three past supporting Oscar lineups – would also extend a four-year trend of a single film producing multiple featured male nominees.

Focusing on the performers just outside of our predicted supporting quintets, those with the next best chances of riding their movies’ coattails are Sterling K. Brown (“American Fiction”), Dominic Sessa (“The Holdovers”), and Sandra Hüller (“The Zone of Interest”), the last of whom’s inclusion in our Best Actress top five for “Anatomy of a Fall” makes her a comparative longshot here. Rounding out our featured top 10s are two more actors from 11th place Best Picture contender “The Color Purple” – Colman Domingo and Taraji P. Henson – plus Glenn Howerton (“BlackBerry”) and Rosamund Pike (“Saltburn”), whose films are respectively ranked 31st and 19th in the main race.

Aside from Dafoe, the previously recognized actors with the best shots at landing their own supporting bids for their work in expected Best Picture nominees are Jesse Plemons (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) and “Oppenheimer” pair Matt Damon and Florence Pugh. However, both films are already set to net three acting notices apiece, so anticipating four for either might be unwise based on how this year is playing out. That notion also impacts potential first-timer Cara Jade Myers (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) but does not apply to possible newcomers like John Magaro (“Past Lives”) and Milo Machado Graner (“Anatomy of a Fall”).

Many consecutive years’ worth of Oscar nominations announcements have proven that at least one annual supporting surprise is practically inevitable, so it’s best to try to be prepared. Most predictors will understandably never develop the foresight to see a Stanfield-esque shocker coming, but it’s much easier to see the Hirsches and Denches right under our noses.

PREDICT the 2024 Oscar nominees through January 23

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

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