Watch out for these casts to contend at the SAG Awards: ‘Air,’ ‘The Holdovers’ and ‘May December’

Jacob Sarkisian
·5 min read
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.

The Golden Globes have now come and gone, with the organization awarding “Oppenheimer” and “Poor Things” their night’s two Best Picture categories. Now, our attention turns to the Screen Actors’ Guild Awards, whose big prize comes in the form of Best Ensemble.

“Oppenheimer” is again expected to take home that award while we are also predicting that “Barbie,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Poor Things,” and “The Color Purple” will be nominated. However, not every nomination goes that smoothly. So which movies could disrupt these predictions and land themselves a shock bid? Well, here are three we think could do just that.

More from GoldDerby

“Air”
Amazon’s “Air” tells the story of how Nike’s Air Jordan shoe was first created, which includes the sportswear company’s courtship of Michael Jordan. The film’s biggest strength here is the list of A-list names. Matt Damon, Ben Affleck, Viola Davis, Jason Bateman, and Chris Tucker make up a solid foundation of movie stars with plenty of fans. That the film has such a wealth of A-list names in its cast is a big boost. We know SAG like casts full of movie stars, such as recent nominees “Babylon,” “House of Gucci,” “Don’t Look Up,” “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” and “The Irishman.”

It’s also a talky movie based on a true story, which is another favorite of SAG. Similar recent nominees include “King Richard,” “House of Gucci,” “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” “Bombshell,” and “Hidden Figures.” The central trio of Damon, Affleck, and Davis boast some SAG power, too.

Damon and Affleck were nominated in this category in 1998 for “Good Will Hunting,” while Damon also earned bids in 1999 for “Saving Private Ryan” and 2007 for “The Departed.” Affleck, meanwhile, has won this award in twice — in 1999 for “Shakespeare in Love” and in 2013 for “Argo.” Davis won this award in 2012 for “The Help” while she was also nominated in 2009 for “Doubt,” 2017 for “Fences,” and 2021 for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.”

We are predicting that this would be the only SAG bid for “Air” but that shouldn’t hurt its chances — plenty of movies have earned only a Best Ensemble bid at SAG, including “Babylon,” “Women Talking,” and “Don’t Look Up.”

“The Holdovers”
Focus Features’ “The Holdovers” follows Paul Giamatti as a curmudgeonly teacher forced to stay at his school over Christmas to look after students who have to remain on campus for the holiday break. We already know that the industry likes Giamatti’s performance in this role — he won the Golden Globe for Best Comedy/Musical Actor and deservedly so. Could Giamatti be the leading thespian to lead his cast to a SAG ensemble bid? This style of nomination has happened before. Will Smith led his cast to a bid in 2022 for “King Richard,” Steven Yeun did the same in 2021 for “Minari,” and Rami Malek did it for the “Bohemian Rhapsody” cast in 2019.

However, while it helps to have this masthead figure for a film, Giamatti is supported ably by the likes of Dominic Sessa and Da’Vine Joy Randolph, the latter of whom won the Best Supporting Actress Golden Globe on Sunday. Randolph is also expected to win the SAG award for the same category while Giamatti is predicted to land a bid for Best Actor, too. That would be two nominations. It seems natural that a cumulative bid for Best Ensemble would follow. “House of Gucci” got into Ensemble after picking up two solo bids while “Minari” repeated the same pattern.

Giamatti won this award in 2005 for “Sideways” and also earned a nomination in 2014 for “12 Years a Slave.” He is the only main cast member with SAG history.

“May December”
Netflix’s “May December” tells the story of an actress (Natalie Portman) who visits the home of a couple (Julianne Moore and Charles Melton) to do research for a film based on their past scandal, which revolved around the affair they had when the woman was in her 30s and the boy was only 13. This film revolves around a trio of powerful performances, which makes it seem like a small cast. Three main actors and then the addition of Corey Michael Smith to make it four. That may seem too low a cast number for SAG to nominate as they typically like sprawling rosters. However, small casts do also make the cut for Best Ensemble.

“The Artist,” “Black Swan,” “The Fighter,” and “The Kids Are All Right” were all nominated with five listed actors; “The Banshees of Inisherin” and “Doubt” were nominated with four; and “Beasts of Nation” snagged a bid with just three listed performers. “Sideways” even won the award in 2005 with just four actors, the smallest cast to win Best Ensemble. Plus, “May December” is predicted to pick up nominations for Moore and Melton for their supporting performances. Like “The Holdovers,” it could land a cumulative Best Ensemble nomination following these two solo bids.

Moore has been nominated for this award four times but never won: for “Boogie Nights” in 1998, “Magnolia” in 2000, “The Hours” in 2003, and “The Kids Are All Right” in 2011. Portman was also nominated for this award in 2011 — for “Black Swan.” That is her only SAG bid for Best Ensemble. They are the only two members of the main cast to land nominations in this category.

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

SIGN UP for Gold Derby newsletters and updates

Best of GoldDerby

Sign up for Gold Derby's Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

Click here to read the full article.