VMA predictions: Who will win top prizes for Video, Song and Artist of the Year?

Jaime Rodriguez
·5 min read
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This year the VMAs are back to honor some of the best videos and songs released from July 2022 through June 2023. The nominees are a star-studded pack, from breakout successes Peso Pluma and Ice Spice to bona fide mega stars like Taylor Swift, SZA, Nicki Minaj and Sam Smith. Let’s take a look at which artists will add one or two Moon Persons to their awards shelves in the top categories.

Video of the Year

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Taylor Swift has won this category three times — the most ever — so a fourth win is not off the table here for her self-directed “Anti-Hero.” But perhaps there’s a mood to switch things up. Miley Cyrus’s “Flowers” features great cinematography and could win just based on the song’s strength as a hit. Nicki Minaj’s “Super Freaky Girl” was a comeback for the rapper and will have the support of her passionate fan base. And SZA’s “Kill Bill” was a huge hit and one of the year’s most creative videos as well.

However, it’s probably not safe to bet against such a massive hit from Swift, especially as a self-directed video with a Best Direction nomination and amid the Swift hype train as she continues her blockbuster Eras Tour. Keep an eye out for the others, but Swift should ultimately prevail.

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Song of the Year

While there are many songs here that could justifiably be called the “Song of the Year,” one definitely sticks out: Cyrus’s “Flowers.” Her comeback single managed to log eight weeks atop the Billboard Hot 100 and quickly became the biggest hit of her career. SZA’s “Kill Bill” could also be a contender since it’s SZA’s biggest hit and also topped the charts, though not for as long.

That said, since it’s a fan-voted award, Swift’s “Anti-Hero,” which also spent eight weeks at number-one, could also be a factor, although Swift might be stronger elsewhere. The VMAs like to spread the love around. So if “Anti-Hero” wins Video of the Year, expect “Flowers” to win Song of the Year. But if “Flowers” wins Video, and Swift wins Artist of the Year, then expect “Kill Bill” to take this home.

Artist of the Year

Nicki Minaj, Beyoncé, and Taylor Swift face off here. Swift should have the edge: no one has defined these last 12 months like Swift, who has found success with her bestselling album “Midnights” and her Eras Tour, which will likely become the biggest tour success of all time. On top of that, Swift released the successful “Speak Now (Taylor’s Version),” which further cemented her domination this year.

Beyoncé has also had an amazing year, releasing “Renaissance,” the most acclaimed album of her career, which produced the hits “Cuff It” and “Break My Soul.” And she embarked on her own record-breaking Renaissance World Tour. Minaj, while admittedly not as dominant as those other two this past year, has had her fair share of successes: her chart-topping comeback single “Super Freaky Girl,” as well as the top-10 hits “Princess Diana” and “Barbie World.”

When it comes to the win, Swift might ultimately come out on top: the Swifties are not to be trifled with, and more casual voters will likely go for her too. It would be well-deserved too, as Swift further establishes herself as this century’s biggest popstar.

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Best Collaboration

“I’m Good (Blue),” “Gotta Move On” and “I Like You (A Happier Song)” should probably just be grateful they are nominated. The win should instead be between Karol G and Shakira’s “TQG”; Metro Boomin, The Weeknd, Diddy and 21 Savage’s “Creepin’”; and Rema and Selena Gomez’s “Calm Down.”

While “TQG” is the most-viewed video, “Calm Down” might be the biggest hit song overall, with the remix alone having almost a billion Spotify streams. That might put it ahead, especially with casual voters who aren’t in any dedicated fan bases. However, since “Calm Down” is practically locked for the Best Afrobeats award, MTV and voters might want to spread the wealth and award Karol and Shakira here, especially if Anitta or Bad Bunny upset them in Best Latin. Shakira being the Video Vanguard Award recipient also likely helps, as she has gotten a lot of hype as a result. I’ll say “TQG” will take it, but there’s formidable competition.

Best New Artist

Is there any way that Ice Spice walks away without this award? The New York-based rapper is easily the biggest breakout star of the year, earning four top 10 hits in 2023 as well as additional urban hits like “In Ha Mood” and “Deli.” She will also have the support of her own fans in addition to the Swifties and Barbz — Swift and Minaj’s respective fan bases — due to their collaborations with her.

Latin superstar Peso Pluma could challenge due to his Latin music world domination this year. However, being known to mostly the Latin market might hurt his chances. Expect the award to be between the two of them, though.

PREDICTthe VMAs until September 12

Be sure to make your MTV Video Music Award predictions so that music executives and top name stars can see how they’re faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until winners are announced. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. And join in the fierce debate over the VMAs taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our music forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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