VMA predictions: Taylor Swift on track to extend her all-time record for Video of the Year

Daniel Montgomery
·3 min read
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When fans get to vote for the winners at an awards show, it rarely pays to bet against Taylor Swift. She has one of the biggest fan bases in music, and what’s more, they’re one of the most reliably motivated fan bases in the industry too. So can anyone beat her for Video of the Year at the MTV Video Music Awards? Ever?

Well, Swift does hold the record for the most wins in the category. In a race where it’s rare even to win twice, she has prevailed three times, for “Bad Blood” featuring Kendrick Lamar (2015), “You Need to Calm Down” (2019), and her short film “All Too Well” (2022). But she has proved beatable in the past. In 2013 she contended for “I Knew You Were Trouble,” but the award went to Justin Timberlake for “Mirrors.” Then in 2020 she was nominated for her gender-bending self-directed effort “The Man,” but that song wasn’t one of her bigger hits so it wasn’t that surprising when the award went to The Weeknd‘s inescapable “Blinding Lights” instead.

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SEEWatch every MTV VMAs winner for Video of the Year

This year, though, Swift is competing with one of her all-time biggest hits. “Anti-Hero” spent eight weeks at number-one on the Billboard Hot 100, longer than any other song in her career. That puts her back in the driver’s seat for Video of the Year with leading odds of 15/2 based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users as of this writing. Among those betting on her to prevail are 16 of the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s VMAs and 19 of the All-Star Top 24 who had the highest prediction scores when you combine the last two years’ VMA results.

With support from five Top Users and five All-Stars, Miley Cyrus‘s “Flowers” is Swift’s closest competition. “Flowers” was about as big a hit on the Billboard charts as “Anti-Hero” was — maybe a little bigger actually. And Cyrus previously won Video of the Year in 2014 for “Wrecking Ball,” showing that she has formidable fans of her own. But “Flowers” isn’t as showy a music video as “Anti-Hero” — Cyrus mostly dances and exercises in her visual — and Cyrus didn’t have to face Swift’s fandom last time. Do you agree with our odds that Swift will extend her record with a fourth Video of the Year trophy?

PREDICTthe VMAs until September 12

Be sure to make your MTV Video Music Award predictions so that music executives and top name stars can see how they’re faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until winners are announced. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. And join in the fierce debate over the VMAs taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our music forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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