VMA predictions: Official odds in 14 top categories at 2023 MTV Video Music Awards

Daniel Montgomery
·5 min read
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The 40th annual MTV Video Music Awards will be held tonight, September 12, at 8:00pm at New Jersey’s Prudential Center. So who will the big winners be? Scroll down for our official odds in 14 top categories. Those odds were calculated by combining the predictions of Gold Derby users who have placed their bets here in our predictions center. Our projected winners are highlighted in gold.

We’re predicting four victories for Taylor Swift out of the five of her categories that we’re predicting. Among those, we’re betting on her for Video of the Year for “Anti-Hero,” which would be her fourth win in the category, extending her all-time record. She’s also favored for Artist of the Year, Best Pop and Best Direction. Overall she has 11 nominations including professional categories that are voted on by music insiders and social categories that are decided on MTV’s Instagram Stories.

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Swift is the only artist we’re predicting to win multiple times. But other awards are expected to go to Ice Spice (Best New Artist), Miley Cyrus (Song of the Year for “Flowers”) and Rema and Selena Gomez (Best Collaboration for “Calm Down”). Shakira will receive the Video Vanguard Award and is also favored to win Best Latin for “TQG” with Karol G. Meanwhile, Sean “Diddy” Combs is slated to receive the honorary Global Icon Award. Find out who else is likely to take home trophies below.

SEENicki Minaj returns as emcee and performer for 2023 VMAs

VIDEO OF THE YEAR
Taylor Swift, “Anti-Hero” — 9/2
Miley Cyrus, “Flowers” — 11/2
SZA, “Kill Bill” — 6/1
Olivia Rodrigo, “Vampire” — 13/2
Nicki Minaj, “Super Freaky Girl” — 13/2
Sam Smith and Kim Petras, “Unholy” — 13/2
Doja Cat, “Attention” — 7/1

ARTIST OF THE YEAR
Taylor Swift — 82/25
Beyonce — 4/1
Nicki Minaj — 5/1
Shakira — 11/2
Doja Cat — 13/2
Karol G — 7/1

BEST NEW ARTIST
Ice Spice — 82/25
Peso Pluma — 9/2
PinkPantheress — 5/1
Renee Rapp — 11/2
GloRilla — 6/1
Kaliii — 7/1

SONG OF THE YEAR
Miley Cyrus, “Flowers” — 5/1
Taylor Swift, “Anti-Hero” — 11/2
Olivia Rodrigo, “Vampire” — 6/1
SZA, “Kill Bill” — 6/1
Sam Smith and Kim Petras, “Unholy” — 13/2
Rema and Selena Gomez, “Calm Down” — 7/1
Steve Lacy, “Bad Habit” — 7/1

BEST COLLABORATION
Rema and Selena Gomez, “Calm Down” — 7/2
Karol G and Shakira, “TQG” — 4/1
Post Malone feat. Doja Cat, “I Like You (A Happier Song)” — 5/1
Metro Boomin, The Weeknd, 21 Savage and Diddy, “Creepin'” — 11/2
David Guetta and Bebe Rexha, “I’m Good (Blue)” — 13/2
Diddy feat. Bryson Tiller, Ashanti and Yung Miami, “Gotta Move On” — 15/2

BEST HIP-HOP
Nicki Minaj, “Super Freaky Girl” — 9/2
GloRilla and Cardi B, “Tomorrow 2” — 11/2
DJ Khaled feat. Drake and Lil Baby, “Staying Alive” — 6/1
Lil Uzi Vert, “Just Wanna Rock” — 6/1
Metro Boomin feat. Future, “Superhero” — 13/2
Lil Wayne feat. Swizz Beatz and DMX, “Kant Nobody” — 7/1
Diddy feat. Bryson Tiller, Ashanti and Yung Miami, “Gotta Move On” — 7/1

BEST LATIN
Karol G and Shakira, “TQG” — 5/1
Bad Bunny, “Where She Goes” — 11/2
Anitta, “Funk Rave” — 11/2
Rosalia, “Despecha” — 6/1
Shakira, “Acrostico” — 13/2
Grupo Frontera and Bad Bunny, “Un x100to” — 13/2
Eslabon Armado and Peso Pluma, “Ella Baila Sola” — 7/1

BEST POP
Taylor Swift, “Anti-Hero” — 9/2
Miley Cyrus, “Flowers” — 11/2
Olivia Rodrigo, “Vampire” — 6/1
Dua Lipa, “Dance the Night” — 6/1
Ed Sheeran, “Eyes Closed” — 13/2
Demi Lovato, “Swine” — 7/1
Pink, “Trustfall” — 7/1

BEST ROCK
Foo Fighters, “The Teacher” — 7/2
Maneskin, “The Loneliest” — 39/10
Red Hot Chili Peppers, “Tippa My Tongue” — 5/1
Metallica, “Lux Aeterna” — 6/1
Linkin Park, “Lost” — 13/2
Muse, “You Make Me Feel Like It’s Halloween” — 15/2

BEST ALTERNATIVE
Lana Del Rey feat. Jon Batiste, “Candy Necklace” — 17/5
Paramore, “This is Why” — 4/1
Boygenius, “The Film” — 5/1
Blink 182, “Edging” — 11/2
Fall Out Boy, “Hold Me Like a Grudge” — 13/2
Thirty Seconds to Mars, “Stuck” — 7/1

BEST R&B
SZA, “Shirt” — 82/25
Metro Boomin, The Weeknd, 21 Savage and Diddy, “Creepin'” — 4/1
Chloe feat. Chris Brown, “How Does It Feel” — 5/1
Toosii, “Favorite Song” — 6/1
Yung Bleu and Nicki Minaj, “Love in the Way” — 13/2
Alicia Keys feat. Lucky Daye, “Stay” — 7/1

BEST K-POP
Blackpink, “Pink Venom” — 82/25
Stray Kids, “S-Class” — 9/2
Fify Fifty, “Cupid” — 5/1
Seventeen, “Super” — 11/2
Tomorrow X Together, “Suger Rush Ride” — 6/1
Aespa, “Girls” — 15/2

VIDEO FOR GOOD
Demi Lovato, “Swine” — 17/5
Dove Cameron, “Breakfast” — 4/1
Bad Bunny, “El Apagon — Aqui Vive Gente” — 9/2
Alicia Keys, “If I Ain’t Got You (Orchestral)” — 6/1
Imagine Dragons, “Crushed” — 13/2
Maluma, “La Reina” — 15/2

BEST DIRECTION
Taylor Swift, “Anti-Hero” — 9/2
SZA, “Kill Bill” — 11/2
Sam Smith and Kim Petras, “Unholy” — 6/1
Kendrick Lamar, “Count Me Out” — 6/1
Doja Cat, “Attention” — 13/2
Drake, “Falling Back” — 7/1
Megan Thee Stallion, “Her” — 7/1

PREDICTthe VMAs until September 12

Be sure to make your MTV Video Music Award predictions so that music executives and top name stars can see how they’re faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until winners are announced. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. And join in the fierce debate over the VMAs taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our music forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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