VMA predictions: Breaking down genre front-runners for hip-hop, K-pop, Latin and Afrobeats
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The 2023 VMAs are right around the corner, set to air live on Tuesday night, September 12, with many categories pitting some of the year’s biggest hits against some of the biggest fanbases in the industry. So who will win genre prizes for Best Hip-Hop, Best K-Pop, Best Latin and Best Afrobeats? Read on for a breakdown of each category.
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Best Hip-Hop
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Nicki Minaj’s “Super Freaky Girl” is an easy winner here. Not only is it the biggest hit, peaking atop the Billboard Hot 100 singles chart, Minaj is also arguably the most popular star in the category. So she likely has the largest fanbase out of the nominees and will thus get a hefty amount of support from her hardcore stans and casual voters alike. “Super Freaky Girl” is also the only nominee here that’s also up for Video of the Year. Congrats in advance to Miss Minaj.
Best K-Pop
There are two major contenders for the win here. The first is Blackpink’s “Pink Venom,” which was a big hit for the band. The group is also coming off a win in this category last year … sort of (group member Lisa won as a solo artist for “Lalisa”). Clearly the Blinks have a lot of voting power, so the win is possible.
However, Fifty Fifty’s “Cupid” is arguably the biggest hit in the category, reaching new heights for K-pop groups even without a huge label push or a firmly established fanbase. This means a lot of casual music fans might vote for the song in addition to superfans of the group. Can these casual voters overcome Blackpink’s rabid fandom, though? I’ll play it safe with “Pink Venom,” but this will be closer than many expect.
Best Latin
This category will likely be a two-horse race between Karol G and Shakira’s “TQG” and Anitta’s “Funk Rave.” The former has the benefit of immense hype, especially due to Shakira being this year’s Video Vanguard Award recipient. “TQG” is also the most popular video in the category, amassing over 750 million views on YouTube, well above every other nominee.
That said, Anitta’s fanbase is huge, as proven by her win last year for “Envolver.” “Funk Rave” isn’t as big a hit; in fact, it may be the least known song/video among this year’s nominees. But the passion of Anitta’s supporters might be enough to put her over the top. I’m going with “TQG” here based on how monumental it was in the Latin music world, but don’t be shocked if Anitta surprises.
Best Afrobeats
It’s very unlikely that Rema and Selena Gomez’s “Calm Down” loses. It’s the biggest hit in the category by a mile, with the video racking up over 600 million views. Gomez’s presence is also a big plus since she has her own devoted fanbase in addition to Rema, who is one of Africa’s biggest stars. If you had to pick a runner-up, it could be Ayra Starr for her global hit “Rush.” The video was a major success with over 200 million views, and Starr is nominated twice in this category, so there’s clearly a lot of hype for her as an artist. Still, expect “Calm Down” to take it.
PREDICTthe VMAs until September 12
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