Viola Davis, queen of the SAG Awards, is poised to score her 12th bid with ‘Air’
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There’s something familiar in the air — namely, another Screen Actors Guild Award nomination for Viola Davis perhaps. Despite being outside the top five and six in our Oscar and Golden Globe rankings, respectively, the newly minted EGOT winner is currently expected to land a SAG Award bid — her 12th — for her supporting turn in Ben Affleck‘s “Air,” according to our early odds, in which she’s in fifth place. But that should not come as a shock to anyone.
After all, few people have ruled over the SAG Awards quite like Davis has. The 11-time nominee has parlayed five of seven individual nominations into victories, prevailing in lead for “The Help” (2011) and “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (2020), supporting for “Fences” (2016) and TV drama actress for “How to Get Away with Murder” (2015-16). With her “Ma Rainey” triumph, she joined Frances McDormand and Renée Zellweger as the only people to win the lead actress prize more than once, and Zellweger and Daniel Day-Lewis as the most awarded individual champs on the film side at three wins. She had a chance to become the all-time leader last year, when she was up for her lead turn in “The Woman King,” but she fell to “Everything Everywhere All at Once” star — and eventual Oscar victor — Michelle Yeoh, marking her first solo loss since her inaugural bid for 2008’s “Doubt.” She also has an ensemble trophy for “The Help” and noms for “Fences” and “Ma Rainey.” So, clearly, she is beloved by her peers in the guild and can never be counted out.
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Yet, Davis is “only” in fifth place in our odds for “Air,” trailing Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”), Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”), Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”) and Jodie Foster (“Nyad”). Why so? Well, “Air’s” awards chances are still very much, uh, up in the air (sorry). Despite being well received by critics — it has a 93 percent approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes (based on 330 reviews) and a respectable Metacritic score of 73 (59 reviews) — the Amazon Studios film was an April release that didn’t exactly set the box office on fire with a $52.5 million domestic gross and appears to have been overshadowed by summer blockbusters “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer,” as well as the onslaught of fall festival titles. At the moment, it’s also not forecasted to accrue any noms outside of Davis at the SAG Awards — not even for its star-studded cast, which sits just outside the top five, in sixth place, in our odds for ensemble. And while Davis has been the sole representative for a project before — both times she was nominated for “Murder” — she has never been a film’s lone nomination (even “The Woman King” earned an additional mention for stunt ensemble).
But don’t think for a second that any of this means that “Air” is out of the game. The uplifting biographical sports drama is right up SAG-AFTRA’s alley and is already a certified audience-pleaser. In addition to a near-perfect A cinemascore, the motion picture has earned an impressive 98 percent audience rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Does it feel like it came out ages ago? Sure. But its early release could turn out to be “Air’s” biggest blessing as it’s allowed the movie to get ahead of the pack and will prevent it from getting lost in the flood of fall and early winter releases. It has also been streaming on Amazon Prime Video since May 12, making it readily available to anyone who may want to revisit it. Plus, expect the film’s buzz to pick back up in the following few weeks as its campaign revs up (of note: it was among the first batch of films uploaded to the Academy Screening Room and is set to have myriad industry screenings in the upcoming few months).
SEE Matt Damon praises Viola Davis’ ‘masterful acting’ in ‘Air’: ‘That’s what Brando did, right?’
An “Air” resurgence could particularly boost Davis, who earned standout notices for her turn as Deloris Jordan, the mother of legendary basketball player Michael Jordan, in the movie — from not just critics but also members of the “Air” cast and crew — and is competing in what is arguably the most unsettled category. Lily Gladstone‘s decision to compete in the lead actress category for “Killers of the Flower Moon” has not only made the supporting actress race anyone’s game but also provided opportunity for fringe contenders like Davis to slide into the final five.
What can give Davis even more hope is that the beneficiaries in open races at the SAG Awards are oftentimes former nominees and winners or well-respected vets who end up being their movie’s only nomination. In the past three years alone, there are seven nominees who fit that exact description: Eddie Redmayne (supporting actor for 2022’s “The Good Nurse”), Adam Sandler (lead actor for 2022’s “Hustle”), Affleck (supporting actor for 2021’s “The Tender Bar”), Cate Blanchett (supporting actress for 2021’s “Nightmare Alley”), Bradley Cooper (supporting actor for 2021’s “Licorice Pizza”), Jennifer Hudson (lead actress for 2021’s “Respect”), and Jared Leto (supporting actor for 2021’s “The Little Things”). And, coincidentally or not, all seven went on to be overlooked at the Academy Awards. So even if Davis doesn’t wind up with an Oscar bid, you should absolutely not be surprised if she turns up at SAG.
By no means does any of this mean that Davis is a slam dunk (no pun intended). As aforementioned, “Air” could still go either way, and Davis has missed before when her movie wasn’t a surefire contender, including two years ago for “The Unforgivable” in this very category. But we all know better than to rule out the queen of the SAG Awards when she’s in the running, especially in a wide-open race and for an acclaimed performance.
PREDICT the 2024 SAG Award nominees by Jan. 10
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