Vance leading Ryan by 3 points in Ohio Senate race: poll

Republican J.D. Vance is leading Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) by 3 points in Ohio’s Senate race, according to a new poll.

A survey by Emerson College Polling found that Vance, the author of “Hillbilly Elegy,” has 45 percent support among somewhat and very likely general election voters, while Ryan has 42 percent.

Four percent of respondents said they would opt for someone else if the Senate race were held that day, and 10 percent remain undecided.

The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

The race tightens even further when just examining very motivated general election voters: Vance leads Ryan 45 percent to 44 percent among that group. Among somewhat motivated general election voters, Vance leads Ryan 46 percent to 26 percent.

Meanwhile, in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average of the race on Wednesday, Ryan held a lead of roughly 1 point over Vance.

The polling comes less than three months before the two men will face off in the Buckeye State to fill the seat being departed by Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), who opted out of running for reelection.

Vance won the GOP nomination in May, besting a crowded field of Republicans for the nod.

Ryan significantly outraised Vance in the second quarter, with the candidates bringing in $9.1 million and $2.3 million, respectively.

The seat is rated lean Republican by Cook Political Report.

While Vance polled better than Ryan in the head-to-head match-up, the Democrat had a stronger favorability rating in the survey. Fifty-four percent of respondents said they have a favorable view of Ryan, and 50 percent said the same of Vance.

The poll surveyed 925 somewhat and very likely general election voters Aug. 15-16.

— Updated at 4 p.m.

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