Are we underestimating Natasha Lyonne (‘Poker Face’) to win at Emmys?

“Poker Face” fan-favorite Natasha Lyonne received a Best Comedy Actress Emmy nomination this year alongside Quinta Brunson (“Abbott Elementary”), Rachel Brosnahan (“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”), Christina Applegate (“Dead to Me”) and Jenna Ortega (“Wednesday”). As of this writing, Lyonne is in last place to win at Gold Derby, with less than 3% of our prognosticators backing her. However, the fact that she recently gained the favor of the Television Critics Association proves she should be taken much more seriously. Are we underestimating her at the 2023 Emmys?

Given Lyonne’s status as the very first regular acting Emmy nominee from any Peacock program and her show’s absence from all other major categories, her doubters initially had a leg to stand on, but that isn’t the case anymore. Her TCA Award victory for Individual Achievement in Comedy is an undeniably big deal and gives her many statistical advantages that should cause her competitors and naysayers concern.

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SEENatasha Lyonne (‘Poker Face’): Emmys 2023 episode submission revealed

First of all, it’s important to note that the TCA only honors one comedic performance per year after selecting eight nominees with no regard for gender or role size. In Lyonne’s case, she not only beat 2022 TCA winner and current Best Comedy Actress Emmy frontrunner Brunson, but was also chosen over six other Emmy hopefuls, as well as the overlooked Harrison Ford (“Shrinking”). Her impressive triumph makes her the first simultaneous TCA Award champion and Emmy contender to hail from a TCA Award-losing and non-Emmy-nominated comedy series.

Since she first achieved TCA recognition for “Russian Doll” in 2019, Lyonne is only the third person who the association has nominated for two different comedy series, after Jeffrey Tambor (“Arrested Development,” 2004; “Transparent,” 2015) and Applegate (“Samantha Who?,” 2008; “Dead to Me,” 2020). Counting those who have competed for the corresponding drama prize, she follows cross-category contender Bryan Cranston (comedy: “Malcolm in the Middle,” 2001; drama: “Breaking Bad,” 2009-2010, 2012-2014) as the second multi-program nominee to actually win either award.

The most glaringly advantageous statistic affecting Lyonne is that six comedic lead actresses have clinched Emmys just after receiving this TCA honor. This includes 2018-2021 dual champs Brosnahan (“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel), Phoebe Waller-Bridge (“Fleabag”), Catherine O’Hara (“Schitt’s Creek”) and Jean Smart (“Hacks”), as well as Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep”) in 2014 and Tina Fey (“30 Rock”) in 2008. Meanwhile, the only comedic female lead TCA Award winners who immediately lost at the Emmys were Brunson (2022), Amy Schumer (“Inside Amy Schumer,” 2015) and Jane Kaczmarek (“Malcolm in the Middle,” 2000-2001), the first of whom sort of kept the streak going by taking the 2022 Emmy for Best Comedy Writing.

SEE50 most unforgivable Emmy nomination snubs: Harrison Ford (twice!), ‘Poker Face,’ ‘Yellowstone’ …

The other comedic performers who were lauded by both organizations in single years were Donald Glover (“Atlanta,” 2017), Ty Burrell (“Modern Family,” 2011), Jane Lynch (“Glee,” 2010) and David Hyde Pierce (“Frasier,” 1998). Considering all 12 cases in which a comedy TCA Award winner has lost at the subsequent Emmys, only Brunson, Schumer, Jim Parsons (“The Big Bang Theory,” 2009) and Bernie Mac (“The Bernie Mac Show,” 2002) were beaten by someone they defeated at the first ceremony. With this in mind, Brunson doesn’t have much chance of taking revenge on Lyonne, who is much more likely to lose to one of the three non-2023 TCA Award nominees in her Emmy lineup. What’s more, Lyonne can rely on the fact that a situation like the latter one hasn’t occurred since 2013, when Louis C.K. (“Louie”) was bested at the Emmys by Parsons.

Since at least one member of every pair of Emmy-nominated comedy and drama TCA Award recipients has succeeded on their TV academy bid (except in 1999), some might look past Lyonne’s victory and instead apply this statistic to drama TCA honoree Rhea Seehorn (“Better Call Saul”). However, both 2023 winners being women throws a wrench in that way of thinking since, in each of the five similar preceding cases, the comedic actress took both prizes, while the dramatic one did not unless she hailed from a limited series (the performers from which do not get their own TCA category).

Lyonne still has to overcome the hurdle of her series not receiving a general program Emmy nomination, but the same has applied to 40 acting winners since 2010, including Melissa McCarthy (“Mike & Molly,” 2011), Louie Anderson (“Baskets,” 2016) and Zendaya (“Euphoria,” 2020). The bottom line is, as a TCA Award champion, she’s no longer a dark horse, and it truly wouldn’t make much sense for the multiple aforementioned TCA-Emmy win combination streaks to end with her.

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