UNC Asheville basketball vs. UCLA in March Madness: Scouting report, score prediction
UNC Asheville basketball's first NCAA Tournament game since 2016 is Thursday, and its opponent is one of the sport's truest blue bloods: UCLA and its all-time leading 11 national championships.
No. 15 seed Asheville (27-7) will face No. 2 seed UCLA (29-5) on Thursday (10:05 p.m. ET, truTV) at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California.
The Bruins have been considered one of the best teams in the country all year, running away with the Pac-12 regular-season crown. They've suffered some worrying injuries recently but remain one of the most impressive teams in the field.
Here are some things to know and a score prediction for Asheville's matchup with the Bruins.
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The stars: Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Drew Pember
The Bruins and Bulldogs each rely heavily on their senior leaders, with Jaquez putting together an All-American season for UCLA and Pember sweeping the Big South's all-conference individual awards for Asheville.
Both players' greatest trait is their versatility. They do a little bit of everything on offense: set screens, post up, drive to the rim, shoot from deep and more.
Jaquez (17.3 points 8.1 rebounds, 2.3 assists) is a craftier scorer, one of the best in the nation at picking up his dribble between 6 and 10 feet from the basket, then hitting a two-point jumper over his defender. Pember (21.2 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists) is more of a 3-point threat, shooting 37.3% on 4.4 attempts per game.
The duo's similarities mean they could end up defending one another for stretches, particularly if Adem Bona's recent shoulder injury keeps the UCLA forward out. The 6-foot-11 Pember has a height advantage over the 6-7 Jaquez but gives up some strength to him.
Who prevails between the two could be what makes the difference Thursday, but while UCLA can weather a poor performance from Jaquez, Pember struggling would likely torpedo the Bulldogs completely.
The turnover battle
The most glaring concern for Asheville is turnovers. The Bulldogs commit 14.1 per game (44th-most in the country), and they're facing a UCLA team that forces 15.9 per game (20th in the country).
The loss of Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Jaylen Clark (torn Achilles) and his 2.6 steals per game takes some of the teeth out of the Bruins defense, but it's still a fearsome unit that ranks No. 19 in the nation at forcing non-steal turnovers, per KenPom.
Point guard Caleb Burgess has been the most turnover-prone player for the Bulldogs, but he's cleaned things up significantly since the midway point of the season. Was that a result of the Hofstra transfer finding his footing in a new offense, or is he a different player against Big South competition than tougher nonconference teams? We'll find out.
The 3-point shooting
If turnovers are the clearest path to disaster for Asheville, outshooting UCLA is the most likely upset recipe.
The Bulldogs make 39% of their 3-pointers, the seventh-best mark in the country. While the Bruins hold opponents to just a 31.1% mark from outside, they allow a lot of attempts and don't shoot many threes themselves, meaning they've given up more triples than they've made this season.
A good shooting night from Pember and Tajion Jones could put UCLA on upset alert.
Prediction
UCLA 66, UNC Asheville 57: You can make a case for Asheville advantages on the margins, but the Bruins are not only a No. 2-seed, but a borderline underseeded one.
This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: UNC Asheville v. UCLA: March Madness scouting report, score prediction
