These two categories could be key to ‘The Holdovers’ winning Best Picture

Jacob Sarkisian
·4 min read
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“Oppenheimer” is the juggernaut Oscar contender that is predicted to take home not just Best Picture but a whole bunch of other Academy Awards, too, including Best Director for Christopher Nolan and Best Supporting Actor for Robert Downey Jr. However, we thought that “La La Land” had Best Picture all wrapped up in 2017 but come Oscars night, “Moonlight” swept in to claim the evening’s biggest prize in a shock win. So, is “Oppenheimer” as safe as everyone thinks?

“The Holdovers” is well-poised to pull off an upset. The movie follows Paul Giamatti as a curmudgeonly professor who is forced to look after students staying behind during the Christmas holidays. The film has been a hit with critics, audiences, and awards groups, too.

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As such, it could be a major dark horse to win the Oscar for Best Picture. In the last 10 years, four movies have claimed the top prize after winning both a writing and supporting acting award (and “The Holdovers” could well do the same).

In 2014, “12 Years a Slave” took home Best Picture for producers Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Steve McQueen, and Anthony Katagas. The film also won Best Adapted Screenplay for John Ridley and Best Supporting Actress for Lupita Nyong’o. This film came out on top in its two-horse race with “Gravity,” which won Best Director for Alfonso Cuarón along with six other Oscars.

In 2017, producers Adele Romanski, Dede Gardner, and Jeremy Kleiner won Best Picture for “Moonlight” while Mahershala Ali was awarded Best Supporting Actor. Director Barry Jenkins won Best Adapted Screenplay alongside Tarell Alvin McCraney. “Moonlight,” as mentioned previously, claimed a shock win over presumed frontrunner “La La Land.” That musical film, of course, won six Oscars in total including Best Director for Damien Chazelle.

Two years later in 2019, “Green Book” won Best Picture for producers Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, and Nick Vallelonga. Currie, Vallelonga, and director Farrelly all won Best Original Screenplay, too, while Ali won his second Best Supporting Actor award. “Green Book” won over “Roma,” which won three Oscars overall including another Best Director win for Cuarón.

And in 2022, “CODA” won Best Picture for producers Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi, and Patrick Wachsberger. Director Sian Heder claimed Best Adapted Screenplay while Troy Kotsur won Best Supporting Actor. “CODA” beat “The Power of the Dog,” which took home Best Director for Jane Campion.

As you can see, all of these films follow the same pattern. They win the same pair of prizes and then pull off a win for Best Picture over a rival that wins Best Director. Well, Nolan is predicted to win Best Director for “Oppenheimer” so that checks out here. Plus, we think “The Holdovers” could win those two earlier awards.

Firstly, Best Supporting Actress looks like a lock for “The Holdovers.” Da’Vine Joy Randolph has won at every single precursor so far, including at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. She’s also expected to triumph at the BAFTAs and SAGs, too, and is, therefore, the clear favorite to win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress over fellow nominees Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”), Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”), Jodie Foster (“Nyad”), and America Ferrera (“Barbie”). That’s one out of three.

“The Holdovers” is also in a good position in the Best Original Screenplay race, too over “Anatomy of a Fall” (Justine Triet and Arthur Harari), “Past Lives” (Celine Song), “Maestro” (Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer), and “May December” (Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik). David Hemingson is the nominee for “The Holdovers.” He is in second place to “Anatomy of a Fall.” However, we think “The Holdovers” has a great chance of winning here. Alexander Payne movies always do well in writing categories. “Election” was nominated for Adapted Screenplay in 2000 for Payne and Jim Taylor; Payne and Taylor won Adapted Screenplay in 2005 for “Sideways;” “The Descendants” won Adapted Screenplay in 2012 for Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash; and, in 2014, Bob Nelson was nominated for Original Screenplay for “Nebraska.” Payne’s movies are always loved by the writers’ branch. That could see Hemingson to a win here.

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