Is it tougher to predict the Golden Globe TV series races without Emmy results to draw from this year? Answer: not really
- Oops!Something went wrong.Please try again later.
You might think that the fact the Emmys haven’t yet been handed out might serve to hamstring the Golden Globes. But that presumption would be incorrect, since the Globes are especially difficult to predict because they rarely follow any established pattern. Emmy winners in particular seem to have little impact on which TV series wind up triumphant at the Globes as well.
Consider some recent history. While the Emmys were honoring either ABC’s “Modern Family” (five) and HBO’s “Veep” (three) for eight consecutive years in the Best Comedy Series category, the Globes were paying tribute to fledgling streaming comedies like Amazon’s “Transparent” and “Mozart in the Jungle.” Sometimes, that makes it a trendsetter in honoring the new and buzzworthy. We’ll see if that continues this year when the Hollywood Foreign Press Association as we knew it has been disbanded and there will theoretically be a somewhat fresher crop of voters involved in the choosing this time around.
More from GoldDerby
SEERay Richmond: The Golden Globes deserve the chance to mount a comeback
With nominations for the 81st Golden Globes coming December 11, the combined predicted top five favorites on Gold Derby for Best Drama and Comedy Series as of this post are as follows, in order:
“Succession” and “The Last of Us,” both from HBO; “The Crown” from Netflix (vying for its sixth nomination in the category); “The Morning Show” from Apple TV+; and “The Diplomat” from Netflix
“The Bear” from FX; “Ted Lasso” from Apple TV+; “Abbott Elementary” from ABC; “Jury Duty” from Amazon Freevee; and Hulu’s “Only Murders in the Building”
Now, let’s look at the Best Drama Series category over the past 16 years of Globes history and how it’s been impacted by the Emmys (if at all). There were two occasions since 2008 when the Emmys were a series forerunner to the Globes: in 2012 and ’13, when both awards went for Showtime’s “Homeland,” and 2017-18, when each honored Hulu’s “A Handmaid’s Tale.” There were five occasions, however, when the Globes blazed the trail for the Emmys: 2008 when both went for AMC’s “Mad Men,” 2014 when the choice for each was AMC’s “Breaking Bad,” in 2020 and 2022 (HBO’s “Succession) and in 2021 (“The Crown”).
In comedy series, there were three times since 2008 when the Emmys foretold the Golden Globes: 2008-09 when the choice for both was NBC’s “30 Rock,” 2019 when both went for Amazon Prime’s “Fleabag” and 2020-21, when the winner of both the Emmy and the Globe was “Schitt’s Creek.” Only once during that time did the Globes serve as a precursor to the Emmys in the comedy series lineup: in 2018 when both selected “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.”
SEE‘Ted Lasso’ is looking to pull off what only ‘Modern Family’ has accomplished at the Golden Globes
During those years when the Globes and Emmys went their own way in the categories, the now-defunct HFPA made some predictably unpredictable (some might say free-spirited) picks. In the Musical/Comedy category, those included Fox’s “Glee” (2010 and ’11) and “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” (2014); Amazon’s aforementioned “Transparent” (2015) and “Mozart in the Jungle” (2016); HBO’s “Girls” (2013); Netflix’s “The Kominsky Method” (2019); and ABC’s “Abbott Elementary” (2023) (the first broadcast network win in the category in nine years). Among dramas, HFPA voters have gone for such straight-out-of-the-box freshman choices as HBO’s “Boardwalk Empire” (2011); Showtime’s “The Affair” (2015); USA Network’s “Mr. Robot” (2016); and HBO’s “House of the Dragon” (2023).
Where does this leave us in advance of the Globes, coming up in roughly three months? It’s hard to say, other than the fact that a win for frontrunner “The Bear” would be very much in keeping with the spirit of the Golden Globes penchant for honoring the shiny and new. In fact, the last 11 winning shows for Best Comedy came out on top in their first nominations. Conversely, the show that won the Emmy for Best Comedy Series two years running (and could make it three in early 2024), Apple TV+’s “Ted Lasso,” seems like more of a Globes longshot given the fact it’s already come away trophy-less after two consecutive Globes category noms.
Drama series stands to a coronation for “Succession” at both the Emmys and Golden Globes, where the HBO hour is looking to win its third Best Drama trophy at both. “The Crown” is also competing for its third at the Globes but isn’t expected to bring home the statuette this time. If either show wins a third, it will become just the sixth series in Golden Globes history to win at least three series trophies. (The others are “The X-Files,” “Mad Men,” “All in the Family” (which holds the record with four), “The Golden Girls” and “Sex and the City.”)
The Golden Globes ceremony will be held January 7. The Emmys have been pushed from September 18 to January 15.
PREDICT the 2024 Golden Globe nominations through December 11
Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?
Best of GoldDerby
25 greatest ‘Charmed’ episodes, ranked worst to best [PHOTOS]
Is 'SNL' new tonight (October 14, 2023)? Host, musical guest details
Sign up for Gold Derby's Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.
