Tony Talk: Will ‘The Outsiders’ break into the competitive Best Musical race?

David Buchanan and Sam Eckmann
·10 min read

Welcome to Tony Talk, a weekly column in which Gold Derby contributing theater editors David Buchanan and Sam Eckmann discuss the Tony Awards race. Following the opening of new musical “The Outsiders” on Broadway on April 11, we rack our brains about what other shows are likely to earn nominations in the top category of Best Musical, including frontrunners “Suffs,” “Illinoise” and others.

Sam Eckmann: Hi David! I can’t believe we are sitting roughly two weeks out from Tony nominations and we still have no idea what the Best Musical race is going to look like. That’s partly due to the insane crunch of new musicals opening at the end of the month: I’ll be squeaking in shows like “The Great Gatsby” and “Illinoise” right before the Tony Awards deadline, just like the nominators. But also partly because there is still no obvious frontrunner (be it a giant steamroller like “Hamilton” or an undeniable critical darling like “Kimberly Akimbo”) as nearly every Best Musical candidate has pros and cons as to why it will or won’t snag a nomination. I keep changing my mind with the top category. I recently just plopped “The Outsiders” in there to see how that feels. But no lineup feels complete.

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David Buchanan: Hey Sam! Yes, this is far and away the category I have updated the most since we had our slugfest. There are just far too many shows to try to narrow down into five slots, especially since so many feel strong but not undeniable. I don’t even feel confident about the musical I’ve had in my number one slot since the predictions center opened, “Suffs.” I also recently added “The Outsiders” to my picks because I think so many of its components are stellar, though choosing which musical to drop to make room for it was incredibly challenging! What did you move around to add it to your top five?

WATCH 2024 Tony Awards slugfest: ‘Illinoise’ throws musical predictions into disarray

Sam Eckmann: It pained me to do so, but I removed “Lempicka.” I’m still not solid on that decision though. “Lempicka” is bringing Eden Espinosa back to Broadway after a 16 year absence, which is sending all of the New York gays into an absolute fangirling frenzy. It’s helmed by Tony winner Rachel Chavkin. Plus, I’ve heard many nitpicks from industry friends about how the score in so many new musicals is pretty but easily forgotten once you leave the theater. But you certainly can’t make that claim against Matt Gould‘s epic melodies in “Lempicka.” I’ve had the showstopper “Perfection” in my head since I saw the show. Still, I worry that it could be too niche of a story. Everyone has probably seen Tamara de Lempicka‘s paintings, but I think few people will have a strong draw towards her. It was awesome to see an openly bisexual woman depicted with such honesty on stage… but I’m reminded that if LGBTQ stories had widespread awards appeal, then my darling Andrew Scott would have swept the film awards season for “All of Us Strangers.” And we know that didn’t happen. So I opted for “The Outsiders,” which has terrific inventive staging from Danya Taymor and a gorgeous folk score, sung by a slew of talented young performers. I feel like these kids are going to be as popular for Gen Z today as the “Spring Awakening” cast was for my generation. And while I seem to be the only person who was never assigned “The Outsiders” novel in middle school, it clearly is striking a chord with audiences, many of whom have history with the book and/or movie. That kind of universal appeal is powerful!

David Buchanan: Believe it or not, I never had “Lempicka” in my top five… It had led our predictions center for a long time, but since it started previews, the response has been a tad too polarizing for me to feel confident in it breaking through in such a crowded field. I haven’t seen it yet, so my opinion could very well change once I do, but I feel moderately confident about that decision for now. In order to get “The Outsiders” in my lineup, I had to kill one of my darlings, “The Notebook.” You and I agree that it got treated very unfairly by the critics, and there are many aspects of that musical that I love, most especially the performances by Maryann Plunkett, Dorian Harewood, and others. But now that I’ve seen both of these shows, I think “The Outsiders” is a stronger piece. The folk score is indeed gorgeous, as you say; I still have the number “Great Expectations” in my mind days after seeing it. I also think more of its components will appeal to the Tony nominators than those of “The Notebook,” not least of all the absolutely stunning choreography by Rick Kuperman and Jeff Kuperman for the rumble, which was one of the more extraordinary sequences I’ve seen on stage in a very long time. The ensemble cast is indeed terrific and I’m giving a lot of thought to who I might be able to get into my Actor (Brody Grant) and Featured Actor (Joshua Boone) predictions. Now that we both have “The Outsiders” in our lists, what are your other four Best Musical nominees right now?

WATCH our exclusive video interview with Andrew Samonsky, ‘Lempicka’

Sam Eckmann: David how could you do that to my current favorite tearjerker?! I still have “The Notebook” in my lineup. Critics be damned! Critics aren’t Tony voters anyway! OK, a handful of critics are Tony voters, but it’s such a small number. It’s also important to keep in mind that some critics did review it favorably, but folks have become quite focused on the brutal pan from the New York Times. In any case, the industry hates being told what to do by critics. Just look at the critically derided “MJ the Musical” which won four Tony Awards from ten nominations. Thus far, I think “The Notebook” packs the biggest emotional wallop out of all of the new musicals this season. So many people have a personal connection to the effects of dementia, and you can feel it in the sobbing of the audience each night. That kind of emotional connection is what ultimately pushed a film like “CODA” to a Best Picture win at the Oscars. It’s what helped intimate musicals like “Kimberly Akimbo” and “Fun Home” overcome bigger, splashier competition at the Tonys. I’m not sure if “The Notebook” can go all the way to win, but I just can’t bring myself to drop it from my five. Joining it in my predicitons are two shows I’ve yet to see, but look golden on paper: “Suffs” and “Illinoise.” In the case of “Suffs,” I’m hearing that creator Shaina Taub made a ton of major changes which have improved the show. It also feels “important,” and features tons of Broadway favorites in the cast. And they have Hillary Clinton pushing it hard as a producer. “Illinoise” is hot off fantastic reviews at the Armory, and stands out from the rest of the field as a unique dance piece. Finally, I’m rounding out the category with “Here Lies Love,” which I wish was still running. It’s rare that a closed show gets into Best Musical, but it was a truly audacious, creative, singular night at the theater. I loved it so much that I purchased tickets for a return trip, and would have gone back often if it remained open. Do you have any closed productions in your lineup?

David Buchanan: It absolutely pained me to drop “The Notebook,” and it could very well return to my top five once I’ve seen the musicals that have yet to open this season. I agree that critics are usually not a good barometer for Tony success, but of the shows I had in my predictions, it felt the shakiest. “The Outsiders” is also quite the tearjerker, in its own way, and I do feel like it is the better of the two novel-to-screen-to-musical adaptations. If I am going to put “The Notebook” back in, it would probably be at the expense of “Hell’s Kitchen,” which I have in my final slot right now. I also have “Suffs,” “Illinoise,” and “Here Lies Love” in my predictions. Once upon a time I had “Days of Wine and Roses” in the mix, too, speaking of shows that did very well with critics, but I can’t quite envision two closed shows getting in this season. Further, I think the spectacle and event of “Here Lies Love,” its likely nomination for director Alex Timbers, and its other potential noms make it the likelier of the two to sneak in. With this much uncertainty with only a few weeks in the season to go, might we see a sixth nominee in the category due to a statistical tie? If any year seems to warrant one, this would be it!

WATCH our exclusive video interview with Ryan Vasquez, ‘The Notebook’

Sam Eckmann: I think a tie would really help our prediction scores in such a tough year, so let’s manifest a sixth nominee! I’m looking forward to seeing “Hell’s Kitchen” next week. But the nominators love to endorse shows with original scores. So part of me feels that they won’t put both “Illinoise” and “Hell’s Kitchen” in the Best Musical lineup. But both of those productions are at least telling original stories, so perhaps it’s not an insurmountable hurdle for them both to find a slot. “Days of Wine and Roses” was a tough sit for many people. I think Kelli O’Hara and Brian d’Arcy James are slam dunks for acting bids, but I have to wonder how many nominators will go for it in Best Musical. It’s not exactly a happy tale. Though I must admit I’m still nervous to predict “Here Lies Love.” I think so much of my appreciation of it is because I saw it from the dance floor, and I love trying out unconventional theater. But the first time I saw it, I looked up to the Mezzanine to see that many of the city’s prominent critics had opted to sit up there (critics were given the option between a standard seat and the dance floor). Did the show have the same impact without performers swirling around them? And did Tony nominators also by and large choose to sit rather than get up and boogie? Here’s hoping they were down to party. You’re right though, in such a crowded season I doubt two closed productions will make the cut. We haven’t even mentioned “Water for Elephants” or “Back to the Future” or “The Great Gatsby,” which will all be open and praying for box office security in the form of a Best Musical nomination. Hopefully by the end of the marathon of Broadway opening nights across the next two weeks, the picture will become clearer.

PREDICT the 2024 Tony Awards nominations through April 30

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