Final Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actor/Actress in a Musical – Alex Newell Could Make History and Bonnie Milligan’s Win Seems Locked Up

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

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OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

UPDATED: June 8, 2023

2023 Tony Predictions:
Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Weekly Commentary: Among the musicals, the races for both featured actor and actress have clear frontrunners.

For featured actor, it’s Alex Newell, the nonbinary performer who chose to compete in the actor category for their standout role in “Shucked.” Newell’s signature number in the musical, “Independently Owned,” is exactly the kind of showstopper that wins awards, and sure enough, voters mention Newell’s name most often as their choice, although there’s also affection for Justin Cooley’s charming performance in “Kimberly Akimbo” and Kevin Del Aguila’s scene-stealing turn in “Some Like It Hot.”

Both Newell and Del Aguila scored supporting performer awards from the Drama Desks, but at the Tonys, Newell takes a clear lead.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Tony Awards predictions in all categories.

Gordon Cox’s Picks
Will win: Alex Newell, “Shucked”
Could win: Justin Cooley, “Kimberly Akimbo”
Should win: Alex Newell, “Shucked”
Should Have Been Nominated: Gavin Creel, “Into the Woods”

Clayton Davis’ Picks
Will win: Alex Newell, “Shucked”
Could win: Kevin Del Aguila, “Some Like It Hot”

And the Nominees Are:

1. Alex Newell — “Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre)

2. Justin Cooley — “Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre)

3. Kevin Del Aguila — “Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre)

4. Kevin Cahoon — “Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre)

5. Jordan Donica — “Lerner & Loewe’s Camelot” (Vivian Beaumont Theater – Lincoln Center Theater)

All Eligible Shows and Performances (Unranked)

• Philippe Arroyo — “& Juliet” (Stephen Sondheim Theatre)

• Paulo Szot — “& Juliet” (Stephen Sondheim Theatre)

• Stark Stands — “& Juliet” (Stephen Sondheim Theatre)

• Drew Gehling — “Almost Famous” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)

• Mark Jacoby — “A Beautiful Noise: The Neil Diamond Musical” (Broadhurst Theatre)

• Jordan Dobson — “Bad Cinderella” (Imperial Theatre)

• Kolton Krouse — “Bob Fosse’s Dancin’” (Music Box Theatre)

• Jordan Donica — “Lerner & Loewe’s Camelot” (Vivian Beaumont Theater – Lincoln Center Theater)

• Dakin Matthews — “Lerner & Loewe’s Camelot” (Vivian Beaumont Theater – Lincoln Center Theater)

• Taylor Trensch — “Lerner & Loewe’s Camelot” (Vivian Beaumont Theater – Lincoln Center Theater)

• Steven Boyer — “Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre)

• Gavin Creel — “Into the Woods” (St. James Theatre)

• Joshua Henry — “Into the Woods” (St. James Theatre)

• Kennedy Kanagawa — “Into the Woods” (St. James Theatre)

• Clyde Alves — “New York, New York” (St. James Theatre)

• John Clay III — “New York, New York” (St. James Theatre)

• Justin Cooley — “Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre)

• Alex Joseph Grayson — “Parade” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)

• Sean Allan Krill — “Parade” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)

• Howard McGillin — “Parade” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)

• Paul Alexander Nolan — “Parade” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)

• John Behlmann — “Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre)

• Kevin Cahoon — “Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre)

• Andrew Durand — “Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre)

• Grey Henson — “Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre)

• Alex Newell — “Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre)

• Kevin Del Aguila — “Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre)

• Jordan Fisher — “Sweeney Todd” (Lunt-Fontanne Theatre)

• Jamie Jackson — “Sweeney Todd” (Lunt-Fontanne Theatre)

• Gaten Matarazzo — “Sweeney Todd” (Lunt-Fontanne Theatre)

2023 Tony Predictions:
Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Weekly Commentary: Pulling ahead of the pack in the featured actress category is Bonnie Milligan. A fan favorite ever since her standout performance in “Head Over Heels,” Milligan has earned votes with a performance that boasts the closest thing to showstopping numbers in the quietly intimate “Kimberly Akimbo,” and shows off deft coming timing along the way. NaTasha Yvette Williams (“Some Like It Hot”) also gets mentioned, and Ruthie Ann Miles (“Sweeney Todd”) is a Broadway favorite, but in this race, the trophy looks like it’s Milligan’s to lose.

Gordon Cox’s Picks
Will win: Bonnie Milligan, “Kimberly Akimbo”
Could win: NaTasha Yvette Williams, “Some Like It Hot”
Should win: Bonnie Milligan, “Kimberly Akimbo”
Should Have Been Nominated: Alli Mauzey, “Kimberly Akimbo”

Clayton Davis’ Picks
Will win: Bonnie Milligan, “Kimberly Akimbo”
Could win: Betsy Wolfe, “& Juliet”

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Tony Awards predictions in all categories.

The 76th Annual Tony Awards are scheduled for June 11, 2023, at the United Palace in New York City. It will air on CBS and Paramount+ and be produced by Ricky Kirshner and Glenn Weiss, with the latter also serving as the director.

And the Nominees Are:

1. Bonnie Milligan — “Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre)

2. NaTasha Yvette Williams — “Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre)

3. Betsy Wolfe — “& Juliet” (Stephen Sondheim Theatre)

4. Ruthie Ann Miles — “Sweeney Todd” (Lunt-Fontanne Theatre)

5. Julia Lester — “Into the Woods” (St. James Theatre)

All Eligible Shows and Performances (Unranked)

• Carolee Carmello — “1776” (American Airlines Theatre)

• Elizabeth A. Davis — “1776” (American Airlines Theatre)

• Eryn Lecroy — “1776” (American Airlines Theatre)

• Sara Porkalob — “1776” (American Airlines Theatre)

• Melanie La Barrie — “& Juliet” (Stephen Sondheim Theatre)

• Betsy Wolfe — “& Juliet” (Stephen Sondheim Theatre)

• Anika Larsen — “Almost Famous” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)

• Solea Pfeiffer — “Almost Famous” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)

• Robyn Hurder — “A Beautiful Noise: The Neil Diamond Musical” (Broadhurst Theatre)

• Carolee Carmello — “Bad Cinderella” (Imperial Theatre)

• Grace McLean — “Bad Cinderella” (Imperial Theatre)

• Marilee Talkington — “Lerner & Loewe’s Camelot” (Vivian Beaumont Theater – Lincoln Center Theater)

• Phillipa Soo — “Lerner & Loewe’s Camelot” (Vivian Beaumont Theater – Lincoln Center Theater)

• Julia Lester — “Into the Woods” (St. James Theatre)

• Phillipa Soo — “Into the Woods” (St. James Theatre)

• Alli Mauzey — “Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre)

• Bonnie Milligan — “Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre)

• Janet Dacal — “New York, New York” (St. James Theatre)

• Emily Skinner — “New York, New York” (St. James Theatre)

• Courtnee Carter — “Parade” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)

• Ashley D. Kelly — “Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre)

• NaTasha Yvette Williams — “Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre)

• Maria Bilbao — “Sweeney Todd” (Lunt-Fontanne Theatre)

• Ruthie Ann Miles — “Sweeney Todd” (Lunt-Fontanne Theatre)

Tony Awards Predictions Categories

BEST MUSICAL | BEST PLAY | MUSICAL REVIVAL | PLAY REVIVAL | ACTOR (MUSICAL) | ACTOR (PLAY) | ACTRESS (MUSICAL) | ACTRESS (PLAY) | FEATURED ACTOR (MUSICAL) | FEATURED ACTOR (PLAY) | FEATURED ACTRESS (MUSICAL) | FEATURED ACTRESS (PLAY) | DIRECTOR (MUSICAL) | DIRECTOR (PLAY) | ORIGINAL SCORE | MUSICAL BOOK | CHOREOGRAPHY

About the Tony Awards

The Antoinette Perry Award for Excellence in Broadway Theatre, better known as the Tony Awards, is given out annually by the American Theatre Wing and The Broadway League, recognizing excellence in live Broadway theatre. The ceremony, held annually in New York City, was founded by theatre producer and director Brock Pemberton and is named after Antoinette “Tony” Perry, an actress, producer and theatre director who was co-founder of the American Theatre Wing.

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