Final Tony Predictions: Best Actress in a Musical – Victoria Clark Still the Frontrunner, but Watch Out for an Upset

Gordon Cox and Clayton Davis
·3 min read
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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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UPDATED: June 8, 2023

2023 Tony Predictions:
Best Actress in a Musical

Annaleigh Ashford in Sweeney Todd
Annaleigh Ashford in Sweeney Todd

Weekly Commentary: Will Victoria Clark take home a second Tony Award on Sunday night? Signs point to yes, but it’s going to be a squeaker.

Clark, already anointed by the Tonys for “The Light in the Piazza,” earns voters’ love for a skillfully understated performance in “Kimberly Akimbo,” in which the sixty-something actress embodies a teenager with surprising authenticity. Among those polled, hers is the name that comes up most often.

Micaela Diamond earns a lot of voter appreciation for a performance in “Parade” that shows her character in a new light. Notably, Sara Bareilles also has fans for “Into the Woods.” But it’s Annaleigh Ashford, another Tony-winning Broadway favorite (“You Can’t Take It With You”), who looks like Clark’s main competition. In “Sweeney Todd” she takes on the beloved Sondheim role of Mrs. Lovett, and many voters cite her as the standout performer in the revival. However, her occasionally kooky interpretation of the role isn’t quite unanimously admired, and polling suggests that Clark will score the award in the end.

Gordon Cox’s Picks
Will win: Victoria Clark, “Kimberly Akimbo”
Could win: Annaleigh Ashford, “Sweeney Todd”
Should win: Victoria Clark, “Kimberly Akimbo”
Should Have Been Nominated: Patina Miller, “Into the Woods”

Clayton Davis’ Picks
Will win: Victoria Clark, “Kimberly Akimbo”
Could win: Annaleigh Ashford, “Sweeney Todd”

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Tony Awards predictions in all categories.

The 76th Annual Tony Awards are scheduled for June 11, 2023, at the United Palace in New York City. It will air on CBS and Paramount+ and be produced by Ricky Kirshner and Glenn Weiss, with the latter also serving as the director.

And the Nominees Are:

  1. Victoria Clark — “Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre)

  2. Annaleigh Ashford — “Sweeney Todd” (Lunt-Fontanne Theatre)

  3. Micaela Diamond — “Parade” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)

  4. Sara Bareilles — “Into the Woods” (St. James Theatre)

  5. Lorna Courtney — “& Juliet” (Stephen Sondheim Theatre)

All Eligible Shows and Performances (Unranked)

  • Crystal Lucas-Perry — “1776” (American Airlines Theatre)

  • Lorna Courtney — “& Juliet” (Stephen Sondheim Theatre)

  • Linedy Genao — “Bad Cinderella” (Imperial Theatre)

  • Phillipa Soo — “Camelot” (Vivian Beaumont Theater – Lincoln Center Theater)

  • Sara Bareilles — “Into the Woods” (St. James Theatre)

  • Patina Miller — “Into the Woods” (St. James Theatre)

  • Luna — “KPOP” (Circle in the Square Theatre)

  • Victoria Clark — “Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre)

  • Anna Uzele — “New York, New York” (St. James Theatre)

  • Micaela Diamond — “Parade” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)

  • Caroline Innerbischler — “Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre)

  • Adrianna Hicks — “Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre)

  • Annaleigh Ashford — “Sweeney Todd” (Lunt-Fontanne Theatre)

Tony Awards Predictions Categories

BEST MUSICAL | BEST PLAY | MUSICAL REVIVAL | PLAY REVIVAL | ACTOR (MUSICAL) | ACTOR (PLAY) | ACTRESS (MUSICAL) | ACTRESS (PLAY) | FEATURED ACTOR (MUSICAL) | FEATURED ACTOR (PLAY) | FEATURED ACTRESS (MUSICAL) | FEATURED ACTRESS (PLAY) | DIRECTOR (MUSICAL) | DIRECTOR (PLAY) | ORIGINAL SCORE | MUSICAL BOOK | CHOREOGRAPHY

About the Tony Awards

The Antoinette Perry Award for Excellence in Broadway Theatre, better known as the Tony Awards, is given out annually by the American Theatre Wing and The Broadway League, recognizing excellence in live Broadway theatre. The ceremony, held annually in New York City, was founded by theatre producer and director Brock Pemberton and is named after Antoinette “Tony” Perry, an actress, producer and theatre director who was co-founder of the American Theatre Wing.

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